See more injury-related takes here: Are These Injured Players Safe to Draft?
Cooper Kupp looked like he was primed to be ready for Week 1 after injuring his hamstring at the start of August. Today (8.31.23), word broke that Kupp re-aggravated his hamstring injury and would be considered "day-to-day."
Sean McVay said WR Cooper Kupp suffered a setback with his hamstring and now is day to day.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) August 31, 2023
Previous injuries are always the biggest risk factor for future injuries, and although it is really hard to determine the extent of Kupp's re-injured hamstring, here's what the data shows.
Wide receivers, on average, have 13% of re-injuring the same hamstring in-season. That percentage doubles for WRs over the age of 28. Kupp is 30 years old. Of the NFL WRs who were over 28 and did sustain a re-injury, the average time missed was 7 weeks. From when Kupp injured his hamstring to when he returned to practice, it was ~3 weeks, meaning the data points to him missing another 3-4 weeks. Week 1 seems unlikely at this point. Taking all of this into consideration, personally, he is no longer a top-5 pick for me. But because Kupp offers massive upside, I'd take a swing in the early/mid second with the understanding that there is an inherent risk here.
Summary: Week 1 seems like a long shot, given that Kupp re-injured his hamstring. Because there is a higher risk of this hamstring injury lingering all season long and with the chance he misses the start of the season, he should be moved behind WRs like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ceedee Lamb, Garrett Wilson, Stefon Diggs, and A.J. Brown.
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