See more injury-related takes here: Are These Injured Players Safe to Draft?
Cooper Kupp looked like he was primed to be ready for Week 1 after injuring his hamstring at the start of August. Today (8.31.23), word broke that Kupp re-aggravated his hamstring injury and would be considered "day-to-day."
Sean McVay said WR Cooper Kupp suffered a setback with his hamstring and now is day to day.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) August 31, 2023
Previous injuries are always the biggest risk factor for future injuries, and although it is really hard to determine the extent of Kupp's re-injured hamstring, here's what the data shows.
Wide receivers, on average, have 13% of re-injuring the same hamstring in-season. That percentage doubles for WRs over the age of 28. Kupp is 30 years old. Of the NFL WRs who were over 28 and did sustain a re-injury, the average time missed was 7 weeks. From when Kupp injured his hamstring to when he returned to practice, it was ~3 weeks, meaning the data points to him missing another 3-4 weeks. Week 1 seems unlikely at this point. Taking all of this into consideration, personally, he is no longer a top-5 pick for me. But because Kupp offers massive upside, I'd take a swing in the early/mid second with the understanding that there is an inherent risk here.
Summary: Week 1 seems like a long shot, given that Kupp re-injured his hamstring. Because there is a higher risk of this hamstring injury lingering all season long and with the chance he misses the start of the season, he should be moved behind WRs like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ceedee Lamb, Garrett Wilson, Stefon Diggs, and A.J. Brown.
Our Dan Hindery has offered this Instant Reaction, and the rest of our staff has been updating their rankings and projections. Before you draft, check them out.
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