Is This Real? Week 17

Photo: Kirby Lee, USA Today Sports

Determining what is real, sustainable production instead of unreliable production is critical for your fantasy team. Players with sustainable production should anchor your team and the type of players you seek to acquire in the trade market. Players with unsustainable production are the types of players that you should not depend on in your lineup and sell trades.

Determining what is real, sustainable production instead of unreliable production is critical for your fantasy team. Players with sustainable production should anchor your team and the type of players you seek to acquire in the trade market. Players with unsustainable production are the types of players that you should not depend on in your lineup and sell trades.

DALLAS COWBOYS PASSING OFFENSE

The Dallas Cowboys offense has been going through phases this season. Entering the season, the narrative was the move from Kellen Moore to Mike McCarthy as a play-caller would move to a run-heavy approach.

In the first six weeks, the team dropped back to pass at their expected rate by game situation.

In weeks 8 through 12, the team dropped back to pass 8% over expectation and saw a big jump in production from both CeeDee Lamb (28.5) and Dak Prescott. In that five-week span, Prescott (28.1) and Lamb (28.5) were the top scoring options at their positions.

In weeks 13 through 16, the passing rate has slipped back toward league average pass rates, with the team dropping back to pass 1% under expectation, with Prescott falling to QB8 (18.2) and Lamb to WR2 (23.9) during that four-week stretch.

The sample size is small, so there are not huge conclusions to draw from the stretch, but the downturn heading into the season is a disappointment. On the season, the team has a passing rate over expectation of 3%, which is between Kellen Moore's tenure as Dallas's offensive coordinator and Mike McCarthy's tenure in Green Bay.

Verdict: Dallas's offense is still high performing, but has taken a step back in passing rate, which could reduce some of the ceiling for Prescott and Lamb to finish the season. Overall, the passing rate is encouraging for the future of the Dallas offense heading into 2024.