Is This Real? Week 9

Photo: Geoff Burke, USA Today Sports

Determining what is real, sustainable production instead of unreliable production is critical for your fantasy team. Players with sustainable production should be anchors to your team and the type of players you seek to acquire in the trade market. Players with unsustainable production are the types of players that you should not depend on in your lineup and sell trades.

Dallas Goedert's Blown Opportunity

For years, Dallas Goedert has been a great hope of an elite breakout from the hyper-efficient wing of the tight end position. Goedert, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews have been extremely productive on lower route volume in run-heavy offenses, with the potential for a TE1 overall finish if they ever got high-level route participation. Andrews got the route volume in 2021, a league-leading 623 routes, and posted the only non-Travis Kelce TE1 season between 2016 and 2022.

Goedert has averaged 0.40 points per route run and 1.80 yards per route run, 92nd and 96th career percentile career performance, respectively. Goedert had the type of profile that could post a top-2 finish at the tight end position if he got top-5 tight end route volume in a season. However, in the first five years of his career, Goedert had a career-high of 385 routes (2021), in a season when he ranked 22nd in routes at the tight end position.

This year, through eight weeks, Goedert leads the league in tight end route (288). He has run a route on 88% of the team's dropbacks, the highest of any tight end in the league. While the route volume has increased, Goedert's per-route production has completely plummeted. Goedert's yards per route run has fallen to a career-low 1.28, and his points per route run are 0.28 by far the worst of his career. Goedert has only been targeted on 17% of his routes and only produced 7.5 yards per target, both the worst of his career.

One of the factors behind Goedert's decreased efficiency is A.J. Brown's dominance. He is being targeted on 26.7% of his routes, the second-best of his career. Additionally, the running back position is performing in the top half of the league in target share after years of struggling. These two factors have left Goedert with a lesser opportunity.

Verdict: Dallas Goedert has the route volume to take an elite step but will likely need an injury to funnel more targets his way. He will otherwise perform as a mid- to low-end TE1.