Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
Sure, wins matter. However, if your fantasy football team made it through Week 13 unaffected by injuries, then regardless of how many points you scored, this week was a massive W. Week 13 was rough, and there is a lot to break down from this weekend's slate of games.
Key:
(Position) Player | Injury | My Projection for Return to Play
RB Brian Robinson Jr, Washington Commanders | Hamstring | Projecting Week 16 Return
Brain Robinson Jr. could not finish the game Sunday due to a hamstring injury. On average, RBs miss 2.8 weeks due to hamstring injuries, with 75% missing at least one game. Additionally, upon return, fantasy production can decline by 25% in their first game back, and there is a moderate re-injury risk (the 6th highest re-injury rate among the 15 most common RB injuries I have tracked since 2017).
Washington has relied heavily on Robinson's services this year. He ranked top-12 in RB carries and top-24 in RB targets. It's possible this heavy workload has taken a toll. The Commanders don't have any realistic shot of making the playoffs, so it's possible they are cautious with Robinson. Antonio Gibson becomes a very interesting fantasy target in Robinson's absence.
QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars | High Ankle | Projecting Week 16 Return
The plethora of injuries from Sunday spilled into Monday night as Trevor Lawrence was also injured late in the game. By video Lawrence sustained a high ankle sprain. He tried to put weight on his right ankle before dropping to the ground and needing assistance of leave the playing field. This is a concerning sign and inability to weight bear can suggest a fracture is present.
Early reports out of Jacksonville is that Lawrence is dealing with an ankle sprain. No word of a fracture. If you watched the game live the injury was certainly concerning but assuming further testing does not reveal a fracture Lawrence could play in Week 14. I've conservatively projected him to miss 2 weeks but this situation is very fluid. QBs have played through high ankle sprains or missed minimal time in the past, even though traditionally this is a 4 week injury.
WR Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars | Core | Season Ending
Christian Kirk sustained a core muscle injury that will require surgery. For fantasy purposes his season is over.
RB Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks | Knee | Projecting Week 15 Return
Per Seahawks Head Coach Pete Carroll, Zach Charbonnet is dealing with a "bruised knee." It's unclear if the rookie RB has a bone bruise in his knee (more serious injury) or merely a bruised knee.
By video there did not appear to be a significant injury so right now I tend to lean the latter. Knee contusions can be painful but in terms of time missed, not overly limiting. With Ken Walker III also dealing with an injury DeeJay Dallas becomes an interesting waiver wire target but probably not a long-term RB solution as Charbonnet could be back shortly and I project Walker to return eventually.
WR Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers | Hamstring | Projecting Week 17 Return
It has been an up-and-down season for Christian Watson, and after his best fantasy football performance of the season, it appears that he is going to miss some time.
Christian Watson is injured and looks to be grabbing his hamstring, which he has missed time for. pic.twitter.com/QJLCoL7He0
— Tanner Phifer (@TannerPhiferNFL) December 4, 2023
There are a couple of reasons to be worried about Christian Watson moving forward. If you remember, Watson missed the first three weeks of the season due to a hamstring injury. On average, WRs miss 2.5 games due to a hamstring strain, but those who suffer a setback miss 3.5 weeks on average. Additionally, as we head into the fantasy football playoffs, it is going to be difficult to start Watson with any confidence if he returns, as he is at a higher injury risk. It's not a great situation for Watson managers.
WR Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams | AC joint sprain | Projecting Week 14 Return
Puka Nacua missed some of Sunday's action with an AC joint sprain. Nacua was able to return and played through the injury finishing the game with an impressive stat line of 4-105-1.
The Rams seem very optimistic that Nacua will be ready to go next week and given the injury and the fact that he was able to finish Sunday's game I would say the team is correct. I've discussed this before that AC joint sprains can be painful and it would not be surprising to see Nacua sit out practice most of the week, if not all of it. He also has a higher risk than normal of not finishing the game as AC joint sprains carry a moderate re-injury risk. Regardless if Nacua starts, we are playing him in fantasy football.
WR Tank Dell, Houston Texans | Fibula Fracture | Season Ending
After a stellar rookie campaign, Tank Dell's season has come to a screeching halt. The Houston WR fractured his fibula and will likely need surgery.
#Texans WR Tank Dell, whose breakout performance this season has sparked his team’s offense, suffered a fractured fibula, source said. He’s headed for IR, as Houston loses one of its stars. pic.twitter.com/vATNSwRbAi
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 3, 2023
Dell should have plenty of time to get right for 2024, but as it goes for the rest of this season, he is safe to drop.
Monday Update: DeMeco Ryans (Houston Head Coach) confirmed our worst fears. Dell will be out the remainder of the 2023 season.
WR Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns | Concussion | Projecting Week 15 Return
Amari Cooper entered the concussion protocol Sunday, and his status for Week 14 is unclear. Recently we have seen a few players clear the concussion protocol in one week (Brock Purdy, Chris Olave), but the overwhelming majority of players have missed at least one game. Follow Cooper's status closely, but as of now he is unlikely to play next week.
WR Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals | Heel Injury (Re-injured) | Projecting Week 16 Return
Marquise Brown re-injured his heel Sunday and was unable to finish the game. Heel injuries are odd. It's possible that Brown is dealing with a heel contusion which is painful but typically players are able to play through this injury, and it could explain why Brown did not practice all week before starting in Week 13.
Another possibility (this is pure speculation on my part) is that Brown is actually dealing with either plantar fasciitis or Achilles tendinitis as both have attachments to the heel bone (calcaneus) - You're welcome for your free anatomy lesson for the day.
Either of these injuries could cause a multi-week absence since Brown has already tried to play through the injury without much luck. Brown fantasy managers will want to track this story closely. Right now, I am conservatively projecting him to miss a few weeks.
QB Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers | Ankle Injury | Week 18+
Kenny Pickett was ruled out Sunday with an ankle injury, and multiple reports out of Pittsburgh have indicated that he will "miss multiple weeks." Assuming that Pickett does not have a fracture (it's possible that he has an MRI on Monday which shows this), then it sounds like he is dealing with a high ankle sprain. Pickett could return towards the end of this season, but until we have more clarity, his situation is up in the air.
Monday Update: Kenny is having surgery today (Monday). It's unclear what type of surgery is having but in terms of fantasy football, I think his season is likely over. If it was a arthroscopic procedure, Pickett could return in ~3-4 weeks. An Open Reduction Internal Fixation (ORIF) or Tight-Rope Procedure (for high ankle sprains) would typical result in a 6+ week absence. I would expect Pickett to end up on IR by this weekend.
RB Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans | Concussion | Projecting Week 14 Return
Similar to Amari Cooper, I would plan on Derrick Henry missing 1 week due to a concussion. Most players this season have missed at least one game due to a concussion. There is certainly a possibility that Henry is able to play, but it's best to plan for the worst.
Monday Update: It turns out that Derrick Henry is not in the concussion protocol. He should be active next week.
RB Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints | Concussion | Projecting Week 15 Return
The concussions continue to pile unfortunately. It may be due to all of the demands that go into the position by QBs appear to miss more time with concussions compared to RBs and WRs. The differences amongst positions is slight but suggests that Carr is unlikely to start Week 14.
Monday Update: The team confirmed that Carr is in the concussion protocol.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots | Ankle Injury | Projecting Week 17/18 Return
Rhamondre Stevenson exited Sunday with an ankle injury and did not return. By video, Stevenon's ankle injury appears to be a high ankle sprain.
— ML VIDEOS (@MlVideos12199) December 3, 2023
High ankle sprains are difficult for RBs and typically hamper rest-of-season fantasy production (12% decline on average). Kyren Williams has been a rare exception to this rule and he needed 5 weeks prior to his return.
If we get word that confirms Stevenson does have a high ankle sprain, I would consider dropping him if you need the roster space to pivot to other players.
Tuesday Update: Reports are surfacing that Stevenson does have a high ankle sprain. This confirms his projected timeline of Week17/18 return. If you were relying on Stevenson's services you will want to make different plans for your fantasy football playoffs.
