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These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options, and in MME contests, there are often many duplicate lineups. One play or one penalty can change the entire outcome of the game.
The Bills are 2.5-point favorites despite traveling to New York to take on a Jets team with new life now that they have Aaron Rodgers running the show at quarterback. The total is a healthy 46.5, which is a positive sign that Vegas expects both offenses to find success despite both teams arguably rostering top-half-of-the-league defenses. This is going to be a fun one to put a bow on Week 1 and could truly go either way. Both sides of this one are fully in play.
New York Jets
Aaron Rodgers - Captain/Flex
Aaron Rodgers arrives in New York at the perfect time, as the Jets offense was in dire straights while led by Zach Wilson. Last season wasn't pretty as the offense ranked 30th in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play), dead last in Success Rate, 19th in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE), and 25th in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF). Expect Rodgers to elevate all of these metrics, and despite a down season of his own while dealing with a thumb injury last year, he still ranked tenth in the league in touchdown passes per game (1.5). Rodgers gets to play at home against a Bills defense that showed signs of vulnerability last season, ranking 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed and 18th in Success Rate.
Running Back/Wide Receiver/Tight End/Defense/Kicker Choices
Garrett Wilson - Captain/Flex
Garrett Wilson is a special player. He was an elite early declare prospect selected tenth overall by the Jets one year ago and immediately transitioned into an NFL superstar, catching 83 passes for 1,103 yards as a rookie playing with Zach Wilson, Mike White, and Joe Flacco. Wilson now has Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball, and unless Rodgers inexplicably locks in on his friend Allen Lazard, Wilson is primed to dominate targets in an offense with little receiving talent around him, at least until Breece Hall gets fully back up to speed.
Michael Carter - Flex
It's tough to find an edge in a one-game Showdown, so sometimes we have to get creative. Both Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook are working their way back from injuries. Hall tore his ACL last year, and Cook had shoulder surgery in the offseason. Head coach Robert Saleh has said the team is going to be "smart" with both backs. Michael Carter has practiced as the lead back for most of the offseason and should receive a decent amount of run in Week 1. Carter is a pass-catching back and can pay off at low ownership if he's able to catch a few passes from a quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, who historically has targeted the running back position in the passing game.
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