Prop Talk Week 19

Regular Season Record- 42-34

This article finished the season with a 55% rate, which while we would have liked to see 60%+, it is hard to complain about 55% and a profitable year.Week 19 Props

Tua Tagovailoa Under 230.5 Passing Yards

This one almost seems too easy. Tua from Hawaii, living in Miami, is going to a game that will be about -1 degrees at kickoff. This is the same advantage that Miami has in September when they’re fresh in the fourth quarter when it is 102 degrees and the other team is exhausted. They are not conditioned to deal with those temperatures and we’ve seen warm city quarterbacks struggle when they go into the cold temperatures. Even in perfect conditions in Germany earlier this season, Tua only threw for 193 yards against this very good Chiefs defense. The Dolphins have lost 10 games in a row in sub-40 degree temperatures and this will be without question the coldest game that Tagovailoa has ever had to play.

Joe Flacco Over 268.5 Passing Yards

This number should be closer to 285.5 in my projections model. Flacco has hit the over in every game start this season as he has thrown for 300 yards in each of his last four games including a game against Houston that he threw for 368 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s not just throwing for 300, he did it against the Jets while throwing for 280 in the first half. The Texans’ run defense should have a massive advantage, but their pass defense has struggled against quality passing offenses this year.

C.J Stroud Over 11.5 Rushing Yards

We’ve seen throughout his career that C.J. Stroud is a very calculated quarterback. He could run a lot more than what he does, but when the games matter the most, he is running the football and doing whatever it takes to win a game. Last week in a must-win, Stroud ran for 20-yards. In college against Georgia in the playoffs, he ran the ball 12 times which was a career high at Ohio State. This is a player who that when times get difficult and the season is on the line, is not afraid to tuck the ball and run.This is a game where Stroud is going to have to constantly pay attention to where Myles Garrett is on the field at all times as 9 quarterbacks ran for over 11.5 yards against the Browns this season.

Aaron Jones Over 73.5 Rushing Yards

Over the last three games, Aaron Jones is putting the Packers on his back. He has run the ball an average of 119 yards per game against Carolina, Minnesota, and Chicago. Dallas’ run defense has been good for most of the year, but they have allowed big games to James Cook, who is a very similar running back to Jones as they allowed 25 carries for 179 yards. For Jones who is averaging a career 5.0 yards-per-carry average, if he gets to 20 carries this week and the Packers are able to keep this game close, he should easily cross over the 73.5 mark this week. The hole in this defense all season has been the linebackers after Leighton Vander Esch was lost for the season with a neck injury, and based on Jones’ cut style he excels in cutting back through the hole making life difficult for defensive linemen.

Cooper Kupp Over 69.5 Receiving Yards

Detroit’s secondary has completely fallen apart over the last three weeks. The Lions did not rest anyone for the playoffs as they were still playing for seeding, but over the last three games they’ve allowed Nick Mullens (411), Dak Prescott (345), and Nick Mullens again dominate with 396 yards and 2 touchdowns. Meanwhile on the other side of the ball, Kupp who has dealt with injuries all season now gets a week off to recover, and gets to face off against a former safety as rookie Brian Branch has primarily been playing the slot this season. Branch is an excellent run-stopper, so the Rams should be able to utilize his willingness to stop the run against him and get favorable matchups against the slot cornerback against one of the best slot receivers of all time.