Prop Talk Week 21

Photo: Tommy Gilligan, USA Today Sports

Week 21 Plays

Brock Purdy Under 282.5 Passing Yards

This number is inflated because of how the Lions have been performing as of late. They’re allowing 374 passing yards per game over their last five games, so many people are just going to look at that and immediately take the over here. However, this could very likely be a trap. We all saw how bad Brock Purdy looked last week overthrowing passes and having multiple passes dropped by Green Bay. While the weather could partially be blamed for some struggles on the first drive, it was not raining for most of that game last week. This could very well be a game that if San Francisco gets a lead, they try to run the ball and be conservative to not force turnovers instead of continuing to throw. If you do take the over here, consider a same-game parlay and look at the over for the game, as it would seem like the only way he goes over 282.5 is if Detroit can consistently move the ball against San Francisco.

Lamar Jackson Over 64.5 Rushing Yards

Kansas City runs a blitz-heavy scheme that is intended to get pressure on the quarterback under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. What this has caused over the last four weeks is a vulnerability to mobile quarterbacks as Josh Allen (72), Tua Tagovailoa (25), Easton Stick (77), and Jake Browning (32) all had success running the ball against this defense over the last four games. This is a defense that has been very strong against the pass, so much like we saw last week against Buffalo, Lamar could be looking at another 100-yard performance this week.