Reading the Defense, Week 11

Fantasy gamers have just four weeks left to make or break a playoff berth. Most leagues have trade deadlines (for better or for worse), a milestone that often resides on the calendar near Thanksgiving.

Across this writer's dynasty leagues, trading volume has dramatically decreased in the past five years. The reason is simple. Fantasy gamers are unable to identify players for whom they would trade. Some attribute this to being "player agnostic."

Conversely, demand for draft picks is way up. A stopgap solution at running back for the remainder of the season, like Jerome Ford, might no longer command a late second-round pick in return. A first-round pick shouldn't be expected for any safe starting quarterback (e.g., Derek Carr). The delta between the pick's extrinsic value – its utility to net a future fantasy point producer – and its market value is the premium on liquidity, or what Footballguy Adam Harstad might call "flexibility".

The path to increasing a dynasty roster's value is to pursue assets in lower demand. A typical dynasty league has only three assets: players, picks, and roster spots. As noted above, picks are commanding a premium. Roster spots are finally getting their due. Dynasty gamers are coming around to the reality that a trade package in return for a stud is a sucker's haul. Concentrating roster spots on elite players makes the roster a more durable portfolio and opens opportunities to speculate on flyers.

Dynasty roster rebuilders must pivot to players to grow their rosters' value. The following trade targets are likely to hold, or better yet, gain value in 2024.

Focal Points

LB Nick Bolton, Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs' defensive captain was a top-five IDP in all formats as a sophomore in 2022 but has lost most of 2023 to injury. He's played just enough this season to raise doubts about his continued productivity (9.7 fantasy points per game versus 14.3 in 2022). Bolton is one of two drafted linebackers under contract in Kansas City for 2024. He'll easily resume his role at the forefront of the Chiefs' defense and IDP ranks.

DL Brian Burns, Carolina Panthers

The Panthers' defense was thin going into the season. Injuries to key personnel have rendered the unit toothless. With little help rushing the passer, Brian Burns has recorded 4.5 quarterback sacks in 8 games and ranks 63rd on Footballguys' leaderboard of defensive linemen while playing on a fifth-year option. Burns finished 2022 18th and is likely to rebound next season, perhaps on the franchise tag or another team as an unrestricted free agent.

LB Troy Andersen, Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons' second-round pick of 2022 opened his sophomore season as a starter and full-time linebacker. His replacement, Nate Landman, has played effectively in a part-time role but is a limited player who's no threat to Troy Andersen once healthy in 2024.

LB Nakobe Dean, Philadelphia Eagles

Like Andersen, Nakobe Dean was to be a first-time starter in his second season. He, too, is lost for the season, only to be replaced by a productive, low-cost player. The Eagles' third-rounder from 2022 should return as a starter in 2024 without question.