A player's fantasy football production can differ significantly from year to year based on a variety of factors. One of the key places to understand is when their production will be influenced by highly variable and uncorrelated stats. In many cases, players may perform better on the field but have worse fantasy production because they regress in these high-variance areas. Likewise, players may perform worse in the following season but have better fantasy production because they progressed in a positive direction in these high-variance stats. Understanding these forces will identify undervalued and overvalued players.
Flip Side: See 3 RBs Who Could Decline here >>>
When setting expectations, consider the following four running back candidates due for a rebound in 2023.
Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
Travis Etienne Jr. is good for a rebound in 2023. In 2023, he had 13 carries inside the 5-yard line, which ranked 7th in the league, but only managed 3 rushing touchdowns. Much of the criticism of Etienne has been he is not a running back suited for such a role, but that is not actually true. Etienne broke a tackle once every 3.9 carries, which ranked 7th among running backs in 2023, and his 3.1 yards after contact per carry ranked 18th among 61 qualifying running backs. The team drafted Tank Bigsby in the third round, but Etienne should get the lead role and have a significantly higher ceiling than he showed in 2022. Jacksonville's offense is ascending, and Etienne should benefit in 2023.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris had a down 2022 season, and after the season, it was revealed he had a bad plantar fascia injury that hampered him to start the season. Now, Harris returns to the offense healthy in 2023, in an offense that should be better across the board. This will be the second season with Kenny Pickett as the starting quarterback, which is a season when quarterbacks typically take a jump forward. Harris led the league in running back receptions in his rookie season but has never put his rushing and receiving profiles together in a season. Harris can pair a rushing and receiving breakout together in a way that led Josh Jacobs and Leonard Fournette to elite performances when the market was disappointed by their career arcs as first-round picks.