Underdog's Fantasy Pick ‘Em is a fun way to test our powers of prediction against the market. The two keys to success are picking the best players to target and taking advantage of correlations where we can increase our odds. You play Pick ‘Em by simply choosing "Higher" or "Lower" on at least two player props. If you choose successfully, this is the payout structure:
- Two picks = 3X
- Three picks = 6X
- Four picks = 10X
- Five picks = 20X
In this weekly article, we will list our favorite plays of the week and the reasoning behind them.
Week 3 Review
Overall Picks (5-9 on the week, 26-16 on the season)
Overall Units (-3, -2 on the season)
- We swung for the fences with a 20-to-1 prop with five running back receiving overs. Miles Sanders (16.5) came up just short with 13 yards. All four of the others went over. Bijan Robinson (25.5) had 32 receiving yards, Jerome Ford (12.5) had 19, Raheem Mostert (14.5) had 36, and James Cook (19.5) had 48.
- We went 0-for-5, taking higher passing and receiving totals in the Steelers/Texans matchup. The theory of the play was that the five were highly correlated and would hit over 5% of the time (making it a positive expected value at 20-to-1 odds) if the game was a competitive shootout. That game script did not play out, but the correlation held up.
- We went 1-for-3 on the assortment of unders. Two players we thought might be limited due to nagging injuries exceeded expectations.
Lessons learned: We were four Miles Sanders receiving yards away from a huge week. The process on the Steelers-Texans was solid, we did not get the game script we were hoping for with the Steelers passing game struggling due to in-game injuries and general poor play. If there is a lesson here, maybe it is to stick to three- or four-way entries instead of going for five at a time.
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