Underdog's Fantasy Pick 'Em is a fun way to test our powers of prediction against the market. The two keys to success are picking the best players to target and taking advantage of correlations where we can increase our odds. You play Pick 'Em by simply choosing "Higher" or "Lower" on at least two player props. If you choose successfully, this is the payout structure:
- Two picks = 3X
- Three picks = 6X
- Four picks = 10X
- Five picks = 20X
In this weekly article, we will list our favorite plays of the week and the reasoning behind them.
Week 6 Review
Overall Picks (4-8-1 on the week, 36-29-1 on the season)
Overall Units (-3, -1 on the season)
-An early injury to Deebo Samuel ended any hope of winning our four-man 49ers-Browns pick. Brock Purdy ended up 77.5 yards below his passing prop, anyway. Brandon Aiyuk did easily hit his over, and Jerome Ford was a push.
-An early injury to Justin Fields also dashed any hope of winning our Vikings-Bears entry. K.J. Osborn did top his 3.5 reception total, but everything else ended up lower.
-The Panthers-Dolphins 20X entry came relatively close to hitting. Raheem Mostert got the touchdown we need (plus a couple more for good measure). Adam Thielen doubled his reception total of 5.5. Unfortunately, Bryce Young came up 0.5 yards short, and we needed five more yards from DJ Chark and 10 more yards from Jonathan Mingo.
Lessons learned: Week 6 was a good reminder it is hard to win four or five-way Pick 'Ems but the risk is worth the reward given the 10X or 20X odds. The week was also a good reminder that in-game injury risk is a factor that favors unders. Early injuries like the ones to Justin Fields and Deebo Samuel were bad luck but also an inherent risk when going with the Higher side.
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