Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
Underdog's Fantasy Pick ‘Em is a fun way to test our predictive abilities against the market. The two keys to success are selecting the best players to target and leveraging correlations to improve our odds. You play Pick 'Em by simply choosing 'Higher' or 'Lower' on at least two player props. If you make the right selection, here's the payout structure:
- Two picks = 3X
- Three picks = 6X
- Four picks = 10X
- Five picks = 20X
In this weekly article, we will list our favorite plays of the week and the reasoning behind them.
WEEK 19 REVIEW
Overall Picks (120-99-2 on the season)
Overall Units (+22 Units on the season)
We went a different direction last week, listing some favorite individual plays but not detailing any specific props. We will get back to the typical format this week with some correlated same-game plays.
Week 20 Picks
We will return to our bread and butter, which has been correlated overs on same-game passing attacks.
C.J. Stroud and Lamar Jackson are two of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL. Despite this game also featuring a pair of defenses that have been playing well, the saying "great offense beats great defense" applies. We are getting positive correlation because one of these two quarterbacks throwing at least two touchdowns slightly increases the odds that the opposing quarterback will also throw for multiple touchdowns. We will also take advantage of the odds boost on Stroud's passing touchdowns to transform this from a 6X to a 7.5X Pick ‘Em.
Higher than 1.5 Passing TDs
- In games C.J. Stroud started, the Texans passing offense was fifth-best in the NFL.
- The Ravens' top defensive back, Marlon Humphrey, is out this week.
- Stroud has thrown multiple touchdown passes in nine of his last 15 games. He threw for three in the first half against an excellent Cleveland pass defense last week.
Higher than 1.5 Passing TDs
- The Texans defense struggled early against the run, giving up at least 110 yards rushing each of the first four games of the season. Houston has only allowed 100-plus rushing yards three times in the 14 weeks since. The Texans have held the opposing offense to 80 or fewer rushing yards five times in the last six weeks.
- Since Halloween, the Texans have only lost three games. The losses have been due to the opposing quarterback having a big game
- If the Ravens want to come through with the win as big home favorites, they will likely need Lamar Jackson to have a big game.
- When the Ravens have needed it, Lamar Jackson has produced. The last four games in which the opposition scored more than 10 points, Jackson threw multiple touchdown passes in each game.
- In his last two home games, Jackson has thrown for 637 yards and 8 touchdowns.
Higher than 47.5 Receiving Yards
- This is a sneakily strong correlation play with Jackson's passing touchdown over.
- For his career, Flowers has had 50-plus receiving yards in 86% of the games in which Lamar Jackson threw for multiple touchdowns.
- In the early-season matchup between the Ravens and Texans, Flowers was Jackson's go-to target with nine catches for 78 yards.
- Flowers has averaged 61.8 receiving yards per game at home.
Continue reading this content with a HALL OF FAME subscription.
"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football only site on the planet."
Matthew Berry, NBC Sports EDGE