FanDuel GPP Guide: Week 7

Unlike the past few weeks, we have most of the answers before Sunday this week. Nearly all of the big injury news has landed, and the one major question that truly feels 50/50 is Puka Nacua's calf, so that is where I want to start.

Nacua is questionable and will be a game-time decision after he left Thursday's practice early with a calf injury and did not practice on Friday. Sean McVay said Nacua could not "have some of the power and full explosion" with the calf, and he will test it in a pregame workout. Fully healthy, Nacua would be one of the most popular players on the slate (he was projected at 32.6 percent rostered last week), but the injury has him down to 12.7 percent. If he plays, that is a rare chance to get Nacua at a modest percent rostered, since my projection (with a small injury dock) still has him at about 10 and a half targets and 101 yards, and he lands in 14.4 percent of the optimal lineups.

If Nacua sits, the Rams' cheap pass catchers become some of the best values on the slate. In a version of the simulation with Nacua out, Konata Mumpfield goes from about five targets to eight and from 7.0 to 12.4 FanDuel points at $4,900, and he is projected at just 2.3 percent rostered (though that would rocket up if Nacua is ruled out). Tyler Higbee moves up from 8.2 to 10.7 points, also at $4,900 (5.8 percent rostered), and Kyren Williams goes from 18.3 to 20.3 points. The Rams play at 4:25 PM ET, so we will know before the late games lock, and FanDuel's late swap lets us move from Nacua to Mumpfield or Higbee in any lineup that needs it.

Beyond Nacua, most of the news is already in. Jeremiyah Love, Tyler Warren, Brian Robinson Jr., and David Montgomery are all out, which leaves Tyler Allgeier and Bam Knight to split Arizona's backfield, Bijan Robinson with about 21 carries projected (slightly more than normal), and Woody Marks as Houston's lead back. Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel Sr. have been ruled out, so San Francisco's passing game runs through George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey. In Tampa Bay, Emeka Egbuka is out, so the field is piling onto the pass catchers in line to replace him. Mike Washington Jr. missed practice on Thursday and Friday, and I am projecting him to sit, which leaves Ashton Jeanty with most of the Raiders' backfield work. The few things we are still waiting on are Lamar Jackson (questionable with a high ankle sprain and reported as 50/50 to play, though the Vegas line movement points toward him suiting up), Breece Hall (questionable, with the decision going to Sunday), and Calvin Ridley (questionable and projected to sit), while Josh Jacobs is on track to make his season debut but is not available on FanDuel.

My fantasy point projections are built on a simulation of every game on the slate run ten thousand times. The simulation also solves the best possible FanDuel lineup in each of those ten thousand worlds, and how often a player lands in that best lineup is his optimal percentage. For tournaments, what matters is how that number compares to our percent rostered projections. When the field is on a player far more often than he shows up in the optimal lineups, he is over-rostered relative to what the numbers say and not a great play, and when the reverse is true, he is a leverage play and someone I want in my GPP lineups.

At each position, I will show you which players are expected to be the most popular (the chalk), with the ones I think are worth going heavy on at that elevated percent rostered marked as good chalk, and then a list of other targets who are flying a little further under the radar and whom my process likes more than the field does.

Slate Overview

The table below gives a big-picture view of the slate. It shows each team's implied total and how it compares to my season projection for that offense, along with two other numbers I like to look at. The first is how often that team's players show up in the optimal lineups across the ten thousand simulations, and the second is how often we project them to show up on the field's rosters. When a team's players fill more of the optimal lineups than the field is projected to roster them, our competition is probably overlooking that offense, and when the reverse is true, the field is overrating the quality of the DFS spot.

This week's main slate has 10 games, and Green Bay at Detroit stands out from the rest with a 53.5 total, four points higher than any other game. Houston, the Jets, and Minnesota all have implied totals well above my season numbers for them, while Indianapolis and the Giants are the furthest below. Compared with the field, the biggest gaps are in Detroit, Tampa Bay, and Atlanta, where our competition is far heavier than the optimal lineups, and in Houston and New York, where the field is underweight on the Texans and the Jets.

Detroit Lions, 28.25, vs. Green Bay Packers, 25.25

This is the game of the week, with a 53.5 total. Detroit has one of the most dominant offenses and has also given up a ton of fantasy points to the opposing offense, so we will almost always want tournament exposure to Lions games this season. Lions players fill 94 percent of the field's projected roster spots, close to one Lion per lineup on average, against 76 percent of the optimal lineups, and most of that 18-point gap comes from Jared Goff, who is projected to be the most popular quarterback on the slate at 19.8 percent rostered against just 5.6 percent optimal. I think you can get your Detroit exposure without going to Goff. Jahmyr Gibbs is the most popular player on the slate at 34.2 percent rostered, but he also lands in the most optimal lineups at 29.4 percent. He faces a Green Bay defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs and will be without linebacker Zaire Franklin. On the other side, Detroit has allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks and tight ends and the third-most to receivers, and Packers players fill 74 percent of the field's roster spots against 66 percent of the optimal lineups. Most of that gap is Matthew Golden, the most popular receiver on the slate (25.5 percent rostered against 15.8 percent optimal), while Jordan Love and Christian Watson are both good chalk. Detroit's secondary should get a boost from Brian Branch, who is questionable but expected to return without a snap count. Jacobs is not on FanDuel this week, but my projection still has him at about 13 carries, which leaves too little work for Pierre Strong Jr. or MarShawn Lloyd to be useful salary savers.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 20.75, at Carolina Panthers, 23.75

Tampa Bay is the offense the field is leaning on the hardest. Buccaneers players fill 63 percent of the field's projected roster spots against 40 percent of the optimal lineups, the widest gap on the slate, mostly because the field is chasing the pass catchers in line to replace Egbuka's targets. Chris Godwin Jr. (12.7 percent rostered against 8.2 percent optimal) and Ted Hurst III (8.9 against 3.4) are the clearest examples, and Baker Mayfield returns from a dislocated thumb with an implied total of only 20.75 points. Carolina is the opposite, as Panthers players fill more of the optimal lineups than any team except Detroit. Jalen Coker lands in 20.2 percent of them, the most of any receiver, and he and Bryce Young are both good chalk (more on both below).

Atlanta Falcons, 23.5, vs. San Francisco 49ers, 26.0

Atlanta is the other offense the field is going too hard on. Falcons players fill 61 percent of the field's projected roster spots against 44 percent of the optimal lineups, a 17-point gap, with Bijan Robinson (25.2 percent rostered against 18.3 percent optimal), Drake London (18.9 against 11.8) and Michael Penix Jr. (8.1 against 4.0) all over-rostered. Bijan is awesome, and the 49ers will be without Nick Bosa again, but he had a season-low nine carries against Chicago last week. London has drawn at least 10 targets in three of the last four games, and he still has not scored a touchdown this season. As Jeff Bell mentioned on this week's Footballguys DFS podcast, London is a nice post-hype candidate. He disappointed as chalk last week, which can often lead to the player going a bit more overlooked the next week. I can definitely foresee a scenario where he comes in well under his projected 18.9 percent and ends up being a nice play. It's hard to find an edge on San Francisco's side, with 49ers players filling 57 percent of the optimal lineups and 56 percent of the field's roster spots. Kittle (22.0 percent rostered against 19.9 percent optimal) is good chalk, while McCaffrey (23.2 against 17.5) is maybe a little over-rostered, but still a great play this week.

Houston Texans, 26.5, vs. New York Giants, 16.0

Houston is the offense the field is overlooking the most. Texans players fill 60 percent of the optimal lineups against 46 percent of the field's projected roster spots, the widest gap in our favor, mostly because C.J. Stroud (10.2 percent optimal against 4.6 percent rostered) and Nico Collins are both under-rostered. The Texans have the second-highest implied total on the slate as 10.5-point favorites, and Marks and the Houston defense are both good chalk against a Giants offense turning to J.J. McCarthy. Even with the lowest implied total on the board, the Giants' two main pass catchers are worth a look in a game they should be trailing. Malik Nabers has drawn 35 targets over the last two games, Isaiah Likely has 24 with Theo Johnson doubtful, and Houston has allowed the second-most fantasy points to receivers.

New York Jets, 22.0, vs. Miami Dolphins, 17.5

The Jets are an offense the field is underweight on. Jets players fill 35 percent of the optimal lineups against 22 percent of the field's projected roster spots, and their 22-point implied total is 16 percent above what I'd expect for them against a league-average defense. Garrett Wilson (11.9 percent optimal against 6.4 percent rostered) and Geno Smith are the main reasons, and the Jets' defense is good chalk, since Miami's offense has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Miami has also allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs, which makes the Hall decision important, although my projection splits the work between Hall and Braelon Allen, so neither one stands out at his price.

Las Vegas Raiders, 22.75, vs. Los Angeles Rams, 25.75

Raiders players fill 50 percent of the optimal lineups against 42 percent of the field's projected roster spots, with Kirk Cousins (5.9 percent optimal against 2.9 percent rostered) and the Raiders' defense, one of my defense targets, both under-rostered. Brock Bowers is right in line with the field, but the matchup is a concern, since the Rams have allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season. On the Rams' side, Kyren Williams is good chalk against a Las Vegas defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs, and the rest of this offense depends on Nacua's status.

Cincinnati Bengals, 25.0, at Baltimore Ravens, 23.5

Cincinnati comes out of its bye with a 25-point implied total, and Bengals players fill 51 percent of the optimal lineups against 44 percent of the field's projected roster spots, mostly because Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Burrow are both under-rostered (more on both below). The field is underweight on the Baltimore side as well, as Ravens players fill 40 percent of the optimal lineups against 33 percent of the field's roster spots, and Derrick Henry (14.9 percent optimal against 10.1 percent rostered) is the main reason.

Quarterbacks

Goff is projected to be the most popular quarterback at 19.8 percent rostered, but he lands in only 5.6 percent of the optimal lineups, the biggest gap of any player on the slate. Detroit has the highest implied total on the board, so I understand the appeal, but the simulation would rather get exposure to the Lions through Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta, and if you want a quarterback from this game, Love is the better option. Love (14.9 percent rostered) and Young (7.3 percent) are the two chalk quarterbacks I want to go heavy on. Purdy (9.6 percent rostered against 7.9 percent optimal), Matthew Stafford (8.4 against 6.7), and Penix (8.1 against 4.0) are the other chalk options I would be underweight on, and Stafford also carries the Nacua risk.

Jordan Love, Packers, $7,600

Love is good chalk at 14.9 percent rostered against 14.0 percent optimal, the most optimal lineups of any quarterback on the slate. He has thrown for 1,684 yards, 11 touchdowns, and four interceptions through six games. He practiced in full on Thursday and carries no designation after a back injury put him on the report early in the week. My projection has him at about 36 pass attempts, 309 yards, and nearly two touchdowns against a Detroit defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, in the highest-total game on the slate. Watson is his most common partner in the optimal lineups (34 percent), followed by Golden (30 percent) and Tucker Kraft (23 percent). Given how popular Golden is projected to be, I would lean toward pairing Love with Watson.

Bryce Young, Panthers, $7,800

Young is good chalk at 7.3 percent rostered against 6.2 percent optimal. He has thrown for at least 281 yards in every game this season (1,549 yards, 11 touchdowns and two interceptions through five games), and he gets a Tampa Bay defense that will be without safety Antoine Winfield Jr. My projection has him at about 36 pass attempts, 275 yards, and nearly two touchdowns, and Carolina is a 3-point home favorite with a 23.75 implied total. Coker (46 percent) and McMillan (36 percent) are his most common partners in the optimal lineups. This is one of those good but not great spots that might fly slightly under the radar with so many teams projected for 24 or more points.

Quarterbacks: Other Targets

C.J. Stroud, Texans, $7,500

Stroud lands in 10.2 percent of the optimal lineups against 4.6 percent rostered, the biggest gap at the position and the second-most optimal lineups of any quarterback after Love. He has thrown for 1,714 yards, nine touchdowns, and one interception through six games, including 312 yards and three touchdowns against Jacksonville last week, and he gets a Giants defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Houston has the second-highest implied total on the slate as a 10.5-point favorite, and my projection has him at about 34 pass attempts, 260 yards, and nearly two touchdowns. Collins is his most common partner in the optimal lineups (32 percent), and with Collins also under-rostered at 10.1 percent, that is the stack I like most on the slate. The one thing working against Stroud is the spread, since a big lead could mean a lot of Marks late in the game. That being said, J.J. McCarthy's big fourth quarter last week is proof that the Giants' offense is dangerous enough that the Texans should have to keep their foot on the gas.

Joe Burrow, Bengals, $8,300

Burrow lands in 7.6 percent of the optimal lineups against 5.4 percent rostered. He threw for four touchdowns against Miami in Week 5 before the bye, and he had 428 yards against Jacksonville the week before. My projection has him at about 37 pass attempts, 271 yards, and two touchdowns, and Cincinnati has a 25-point implied total in Baltimore. He also has a strong track record against the Ravens, averaging 327 passing yards with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions over his last four full games against them, including 392 yards and five touchdowns and 428 yards and four touchdowns in the two 2024 meetings.

Running Backs