DFS First Look: Week 7

DFS First Look is back for Week 7. As a reminder, every projection in this article is my own, and those projections come from a simulation of every game on the slate run 10,000 times. The optimal column in each table shows how often a player landed in the best possible DFS lineup under the salary cap across those sims. For GPPs, comparing these optimal percentages to our percent rostered projections (assembled by Devin Knotts later in the week) is one of the best ways to find the players who are overvalued or undervalued for the week.

I keep a running estimate throughout the week of how likely each player is to be active. When a player's chance of playing is below 95 percent in my model, it shows that percentage under his name in the tables below. Keep in mind, this article is a snapshot taken on Wednesday morning, before the first official practice reports of the week. Injury news that comes out after this goes live will change the projections, which changes the sims and can shuffle the top plays for both cash and GPP. It's a major known limitation of doing an article like this early in the week, but I love getting started early and trying to suss out the potential top plays before a consensus forms. Also, dealing with injury fallout is a key part of building winning DFS lineups, so getting started early, following the injury news, and making adjustments along the way is a good process.

The way I treat injuries is to either have a guy in or out when I run my weekly simulation. A player is in if I have him at 50 percent or better to play and out if he is below that. It's important when you're reading this to know what injury assumptions I'm working off of.

These players are questionable, but I currently have them at slightly less than 50% to play, so they are out in the early sims:

• Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers (thumb), with Jalon Daniels starting in his place
• David Montgomery, Texans (groin)
• Breece Hall, Jets (quad)
• Mike Evans, 49ers (Achilles)

These players are also truly questionable, but I have them at 50 percent or better, so they are in for now:

• Lamar Jackson, Ravens (ankle)
• Quinshon Judkins, Browns (ankle)
• Jeremiyah Love, Cardinals (ankle)
• Tyler Warren, Colts (groin)
• Josh Jacobs, Packers, in his first game back from the commissioner's exempt list

Three of these in/out calls have a real impact on the cash game optimals. Montgomery is the biggest one, because Woody Marks is in nine of the ten top DraftKings cash lineups with him out, and if Montgomery plays, Marks loses about seven points of his current projection. Hall is key for FanDuel cash, since Braelon Allen is in eight of the ten top FanDuel cash lineups with Hall out, and the sims replace him with Marks if Hall plays. The third is Evans, because with him and Samuel both out, the 49ers' passing game runs through McCaffrey and George Kittle. An Evans return would cut into Kittle's projection, but Kittle stays in the top cash lineup on both sites either way. He's just an easier call and higher priority if Evans misses. 

Slate Overview

The slate overview is built around implied team totals and how each one compares to that team's average implied total for the full season (based on my estimated lines for future weeks), plus my Matchup Rating for each position, which is my best guess at how much this week's opponent will help or hurt that position. A rating of +10% means players at that position should score about 10 percent more than usual. It blends this season's games with last season's and the betting lines, and it trusts this season's results a little more each week. The DST column rates the offense each defense is facing.

The main slate is 10 games, with four teams on bye. Seven of the 10 main-slate games kick off at 1:00, with Denver at Arizona at 4:05 and both Green Bay at Detroit and the Rams at Las Vegas at 4:25.

Green Bay at Detroit has the highest total on the slate at 53.5, and it is the game I expect to drive both cash and GPP strategy this week. Detroit has the top implied total at 28.25 as a 3-point home favorite coming off its bye, and Green Bay is at 25.25, which is 7 percent above its season average. Detroit has allowed 321.4 passing yards and 2.8 passing touchdowns per game, both the most in the league, and every quarterback to face the Lions this season has scored at least 24 DraftKings points. My Matchup Rating has the Packers receivers 9 percent better than usual (the best receiver matchup on the slate), Jordan Love 13 percent better (the second-best quarterback matchup), and the Packers tight ends 12 percent better. It feels like full wheels up for the Green Bay passing offense. The two small pieces of concern: the Lions just had a bye week to get healthier and fix some of their issues, and it is possible the Packers try to lean a bit more into the running game now that Josh Jacobs is back in the fold. On the other side, Jahmyr Gibbs comes off the bye against a Packers defense that has allowed nine rushing touchdowns to running backs in six games. Gibbs has been on the main slate three other times so far this season, and you were out of luck if you faded him on any of those slates. Of the DraftKings optimal lineups, 72 percent included at least one player from this game.

Since that game and the Rams at Las Vegas both kick off at 4:25, late-swap strategy will matter again this week. About 97 percent of the optimal lineups in the sims included at least one player from the three late games, so if your lineup isn't looking great by mid-afternoon, there will be plenty of room to pivot off the chalkier late plays. In fact, I like the tournament strategy of picking a few early spots to attack in each lineup and then trying to rebuild lineups where needed ahead of the afternoon kickoffs.

Baltimore (27.25) is a 3-point home favorite over Cincinnati in the second-highest total on the slate (51.5). Jackson has missed two straight games, so Wednesday's practice report will be a big one for this game, and the Ravens numbers in this article assume he starts. In addition to whether or not he is in, trying to figure out how much his rushing and pocket mobility will be impacted if he does play could be key. Derrick Henry leads the league with 23 carries inside the 10-yard line and is a good bet to get into the end zone, although he has averaged only 3.6 yards per carry over his last four games. My Matchup Rating has the Ravens tight ends 13 percent better than usual, the third-best tight end matchup on the slate. I'm not a Mark Andrews believer, but I'm also not a believer in the Bengals' ability to stop opposing tight ends, so something has to give. On the Bengals side, Ja'Marr Chase has 38 catches for 699 yards and five touchdowns in his last four games against Baltimore.

San Francisco (26.25) is a 3-point road favorite in Atlanta. With Evans and Samuel projected out, Kyle Shanahan was blunt about the depth behind them ("It's what you got practice squad guys for"), and the targets should concentrate on Kittle and McCaffrey. Kittle has five touchdowns in six games and seven of the 49ers' 18 targets inside the 10-yard line, and McCaffrey has a rushing touchdown in five straight games. I always love to play Kittle, and that is especially true this week.

Houston (26.25) is a 10-point home favorite over the Giants and 13 percent above its season average, while the Giants' 16.25 implied total is the lowest on the slate. Jaxson Dart is out, and Jim Harbaugh said Monday that he is "honing in on a decision" between Jameis Winston and J.J. McCarthy. The Texans defense has the fourth-best defensive matchup of the week in my Matchup Rating (25 percent better than usual), and with Montgomery projected out, Woody Marks should handle most of the backfield work in a game script that favors the run.

The Rams (26.5) are 4.5-point favorites in Las Vegas, and with Davante Adams out six to 10 weeks after rupturing his hamstring, Puka Nacua is the clear top target. Kyren Williams gets a Raiders defense that has allowed 5.0 yards per carry to running backs, the second-worst mark in the league, and my Matchup Rating has the Rams running backs 7 percent better than usual, the second-best running back matchup on the slate.

The Jets (21.5) are 15 percent above their season average as 4.5-point home favorites over Miami. With Hall projected out, Braelon Allen has the backfield, and Miami has faced the most running back carries in the league (25 per game). My Matchup Rating has the Jets running backs 7 percent better than usual and the Jets defense 32 percent better, the third-best defensive matchup of the week.

DraftKings

Quarterbacks

Jordan Love at $6,000 is the top quarterback on DraftKings at 12.9 percent of optimal lineups, and he has both the highest projection at the position (22.6 points) and the best points-per-dollar projection. Detroit has allowed the most passing yards and passing touchdowns in the league. Every quarterback to face the Lions has scored at least 24 DraftKings points, and Green Bay at Detroit has the highest total on the slate, which makes this an obvious shootout spot. Love's Week 6 line also undersold how well he played, since Matthew Golden dropped three passes (including a would-be touchdown) and Christian Watson dropped a 26-yard touchdown against Dallas. He is the quarterback in nine of the ten DraftKings lineups the sims liked best for cash. The two risks are Detroit's pass rush, which has the fourth-highest sack rate in the league, and the possible return of safety Brian Branch from his Achilles injury. I'm not expecting the Packers offense to go back to the conservative approach of past seasons now that Josh Jacobs is back, but I'm not totally ruling it out either.

C.J. Stroud at $5,700 is second at 9.9 percent and has the second-best points-per-dollar projection at the position. Houston is a 10-point favorite over the Giants, and Stroud has thrown for 347, 261, and 312 yards over his last three games. He is seventh in yards per attempt and has a nine-to-one TD-to-INT ratio on the season.

Running Backs