DFS First Look: Week 8

DFS First Look is back for Week 8. As always, every projection in this article is my own, and they come from simulating every game on the slate 10,000 times. The optimal column in each table shows how often a player landed in the best possible lineup under the salary cap across those sims. For GPPs, comparing those optimal percentages to our percent rostered projections (Devin Knotts puts those together later in the week) is one of the best ways to find the guys who are overvalued or undervalued.

The downside of writing this on a Wednesday morning is that I have to do a lot of guessing on injuries. Any news that comes out after this goes live will change my projections (I update them daily on Footballguys), and that can shuffle the top plays for both cash and GPP. I still love getting started this early, though, and trying to suss out the top plays before a consensus forms. Making these injury calls and adjusting as the news comes in is a big part of building winning DFS lineups anyway.

Each week I’ll start with a quick list of the key questionable players and whether I have them in or out. These guys are below 50 percent to play in my projections, so they’re out of the sims for now:

• Rashee Rice, Chiefs (hamstring)
• Jaylen Waddle, Broncos (chest)
• Tyler Warren, Colts (groin)

And these guys are at 50 percent or better, so they’re in for now, but any of them could flip with this week’s practice reports:

• Lamar Jackson, Ravens (ankle)
• Jeremiyah Love, Cardinals (ankle), in at a reduced workload in his first game back
• Aaron Jones Sr., Vikings (knee), in at a reduced workload
• Breece Hall, Jets (quad), in at a reduced workload in his first game back
• Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions (ankle)
• Emeka Egbuka, Buccaneers (concussion)
• DJ Moore, Bills (shoulder)

Two of these really matter for cash games, and Love is the big one. Mike LaFleur said Monday that Love would practice Wednesday, and he’s close to returning from the ankle sprain that cost him the last two games, but I have him at a reduced workload in his first game back. That’s enough to drop him to one of the ten top DraftKings cash lineups and four of the ten on FanDuel at $5,400 and $5,900, respectively. He’s borderline for cash right now, so the practice reports and any tidbits we get on his expected workload will be key. Keep a close eye on this one.

Jones is the other one. The early word is that his knee injury isn’t serious, and Kevin O’Connell called him day to day, so I have him playing at a reduced workload alongside Jordan Mason. With Jones in, Mason falls out of the top cash lineups, but if Jones sits, Mason becomes one of the best values on the slate (he projects for 16.1 DraftKings points with Jones out and 11.3 with him in).

Slate Overview

The slate overview is built around implied team totals and how each one compares to that team's average implied total for the full season (based on my estimated lines for future weeks), plus my Matchup Rating for each position, which is my best guess at how much this week's opponent will help or hurt that position. A rating of +10% means players at that position should score about 10 percent more than usual. It blends this season's games with last season's and the betting lines, and it trusts this season's results a little more each week. The DST column rates the offense each defense is facing.

The main slate is 11 games, with four teams on bye but no international game this week. Eight of the 11 main-slate games kick off at 1:00, with the Chargers at the Rams at 4:05 and both New England at Miami and Kansas City at Denver at 4:25. 

Arizona at Dallas is tied for the highest total on the slate at 54.5, and it’s the game I expect to drive both cash and GPP strategy this week. Dallas has the top implied total at 30.75 as a 7-point home favorite, and Arizona is at 23.75. These are two of the worst defenses in the NFL squaring off, and my Matchup Rating likes almost every position in this game. The Cardinals quarterback and running backs and the Cowboys tight ends all have the best matchups on the slate at their positions, and Dak Prescott has the second-best quarterback matchup. That puts Prescott, Jacoby Brissett, and Trey McBride near the top of my list this week, along with Jeremiyah Love if he gets a full workload, and Javonte Williams is coming off 155 rushing yards in last week’s win at Philadelphia.

Buffalo (28.75) is a 3-point home favorite over Baltimore, and this game is tied with Arizona at Dallas for the highest total on the slate. The matchups are more mixed here, but the Ravens' running backs have one of the better matchups on the slate, which sets up well for Derrick Henry, and Josh Allen’s rushing (eight touchdowns in six games) gives him a big ceiling in any matchup. I tend to like Allen best when he faces an offense that can force Buffalo to stay aggressive, and Baltimore with a healthy Lamar Jackson fits that description to a tee. Jackson has missed three straight games, but reports on Tuesday said he’s expected to return, and the Ravens projections in this article assume he starts.

Cincinnati (28.25) is a 10-point home favorite over Tennessee, the biggest spread on the slate. The Bengals receivers have the second-best receiver matchup on the slate, so Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both set up well (Higgins had 148 yards and a touchdown last week), and the Bengals defense has the best defensive matchup of the week. 

Minnesota at Detroit is the most interesting matchup on paper, with the league’s second-highest-scoring offense (30.7 points per game) taking on a 6-0 Vikings defense that has allowed the fewest points in the league. It’s the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object, and something will have to give. My Matchup Rating has every Detroit skill position as the worst matchup on the slate, and Detroit’s 24.75 implied total is below its season average, but Jahmyr Gibbs still has the highest projection of any player on the slate. Going the other way, Detroit has struggled against quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends, which gives the Vikings receivers the best receiver matchup on the slate and makes Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson interesting this week. I have Aaron Jones Sr. playing at a reduced workload, so Jones and Jordan Mason split the Minnesota backfield.

Jacksonville (28.0) is a 9.5-point home favorite over Indianapolis, up from 7.5 on Tuesday, and the Colts’ 18.5 implied total is one of the lowest on the slate. The Colts traded guard Quenton Nelson to Seattle and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to San Francisco on Tuesday, and I have Tyler Warren (groin) out after he missed the last two games. You have to wonder about the Colts’ mentality now that their season has fallen apart and the fire sale has started. That sets up well for the Jaguars, as Bhayshul Tuten is one of the best values on the slate and the Jacksonville defense has one of the highest projections at the position.

New England (25.25) is a 7-point road favorite in Miami in the 4:25 window, and it may be the best spot to target for a late-afternoon hammer. Miami is 1-5, and my Matchup Rating has the Patriots' running backs, tight ends, and defense all in good spots, with the defense third-best at the position. Drake Maye has scored at least 23 fantasy points in four straight games.

DraftKings

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott at $6,300 is the top quarterback on DraftKings at 11.4 percent of optimal lineups, and he has the best points-per-dollar projection at the position by a decent margin. Dallas has the top implied total on the slate, and Arizona has allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks. Prescott has 13 touchdowns and five interceptions on the season, and he is the quarterback in all ten of the DraftKings lineups the sims liked best for cash.

Josh Allen at $7,700 (9.1 percent) has the highest projection at the position at 24.6 points. His rushing gives him an unmatched ceiling, and a potential shootout against Baltimore is exactly the type of spot where he can hit it. The Ravens' pass defense collapsed in the second half last week, giving up touchdowns on five straight drives to the Bengals.

Joe Burrow at $7,000 (8.2 percent) is right behind Allen at 23.7 points. After a terrible first half last week in Baltimore, the Bengals’ halftime adjustment seemed to be putting Burrow in shotgun and letting him sling it to Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and the rest of the supporting cast.

Running Backs