A great source for evaluating players is comparing a player’s Dynasty valuation with the redraft market. To do this, you compared their Dynasty valuation with their Best Ball ADP. Players with higher Dynasty valuations than Best Ball ADPs are overvalued in the near term, while players with higher Best Ball ADPs than Dynasty values are undervalued. This is particularly true later in Dynasty drafts when longevity is less of a concern. This article focuses on running backs who are undervalued in Dynasty.
Related: See this subscriber article on overvalued Dynasty running backs >>>
The running backs below are good targets for win-now Dynasty teams.
Damien Harris, Buffalo Bills
Best Ball – RB38 – Dynasty RB53
After a 15-rushing-touchdowns performance in 2021, Damien Harris was injured in 2022 before losing his starting job to Rhamondre Stevenson. Harris signed in free agency with the Buffalo Bills on a one-year prove-it type deal to add to the team’s running back depth chart, but his role is not entirely clear. James Cook was the second-round pick for Buffalo in 2022, and he should get the first opportunity in the Buffalo offense. Even if Harris carves out a role as the red zone back, he could still struggle for volume. In 2022, Buffalo ran the 10th-most plays, but the team threw it 50.3% of the time in the red zone and had the second-highest percentage of red zone runs that were quarterback runs (39.5%). Harris only has 1.1 career receptions per game, so his ability to compete with Cook in the receiving game is a major question. Overall, Harris is in a tough position to succeed.
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
Best Ball - RB26 – Dynasty RB38
Conner will be 29 next May and is playing under a new front office and new head coach than the Steve Keim-Kliff Kingsbury regime that signed him to his contract extension. Both factors create questions about his long-term value in Dynasty formats. However, Arizona has made no meaningful investment in the backfield outside of Conner, so he should have a big opportunity in 2023. Conner has 239 and 229 total touches in his two seasons with the Cardinals and led the position in routes per game last year with 25.5. Overall, a healthy Conner season should pay off his current Dynasty cost, which is outside the top 36 running backs.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
Best Ball – RB16 – Dynasty RB27
Aaron Rodgers’s departure from Green Bay creates questions about the trajectory of the Green Bay offense. Jordan Love will get the opportunity to start, and the team does not have an established WR1. Aaron Jones should get a good opportunity in the offense for volume and has been a top-eight finisher in season-long fantasy points in each of the past four years. Rodgers had one of the worst seasons of his career in 2022, and Jones still had an RB7 finish, so the impact of Love is likely overstated. Jones will be 29 years old in December and has a contract that runs through the 2024 season. The team would save less than 5 million dollars of his 17.2-million cap hit in 2024. Jones is an opportunity to potentially get a two-year window for a running back with top-12 upside in each of the next two years at a steep discount in Dynasty formats.