Week 4 DFS Contrarian

Nick Whalen's Week 4 DFS Contrarian Nick Whalen Published 09/29/2023

Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion, going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because it's not chalk as the DFS kids would call it today. Your gut may not be agreeing with the decision, but it's necessary because a wide range of outcomes is possible during a single football game. The comparison for being contrarian this year in a startup draft would be drafting Jameson Williams or Jonathan Taylor. Risk is involved, but it could be a league-winning selection. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments, because you'll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.

  • Do mix in one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.
  • Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.

Key for charts:

  • Player = recommended contrarian play
  • Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
  • FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages
  • FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player
  • DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages
  • DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player

CONTRARIAN QUARTERBACKS

The Arizona defense is one of the least blitzing defenses, and they’ve been an overachieving unit. Brock Purdy has proved he is not a fluke as he’s led the 49ers passing game to the third-highest expected points team. Only two of Purdy’s last eight regular season games have ended with a QB passer rating of below 111.

After learning from Drew Brees for a season, Jameis Winston’s passing efficiency has increased. He’s thrown for 18 TDs against 8 INTs while maintaining a healthy yards per attempt. Providing him with talented weapons in the passing game has the formula for an underrated passing performance. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s top defensive players are dealing with injuries and may not play. Players such as Vita Vea, Jamel Dean, and Calijah Kancey haven’t practiced this week. Carlton Davis and Devin White are dealing with injuries as well. The banged-up Bucs defense with a talented Saints skill position group could create an explosive passing performance from Winston.

Justin Fields again? Yes! Fields scored 17 or more fantasy points in every game he played from week 5 to week 15 in 2022. In each of the last two seasons, Fields struggled early in the season before taking a jump in efficiency and production. The Broncos defense is one of the worst in the NFL and just gave up 70 points to the Dolphins. Chicago is playing at home in what should be a high-scoring contest, this is the get-right game for Justin Fields.

The Tennessee Titans defense allows the fifth-highest opponent QB passer rating, and now Joe Burrow comes to town. He does have the calf injury concern that he’s battling. However, Burrow has thrown for 69 TD passes and 9,000 yards over the last two regular seasons. Betting on consistent production over time is profitable. I’d expect him to have a much better performance this week.

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