You just never know.
You never know which lineup decision can be the difference between victory and defeat in a given week. And you never know which week’s outcome will be the difference between a trip to the fantasy playoffs and a disappointing end to the season.
Sure, it’s only Week 7. There’s still a lot of football to be played between now and the end of the regular season. Fortunes can change—for better or worse. Teams who are rolling get banged up or hit a string of high-scoring opponents. Teams who are scuffling get healthy and catch the breaks that have avoided them so far this season.
However, for some managers, waiting for their luck to change isn’t an option. With just one or two wins so far this season, their margin for error has all but evaporated. Take many more losses, and even a late surge could be too little, too late.
For those fantasy managers, the pressure is up to get a win this week. To milk every possible point from their starting lineup. To get every lineup decision right—including the close calls.
This column is here to help you get headed in the right direction.
Every week, we're going to look at some of the closest calls of the week. Make the case for both players. And then offer up this analyst's take on which player is the correct play.
For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in Footballguys' Weekly Rankings.
If you have four top-15 running backs and can’t decide who to sit, then you are on your own.
Also, can I borrow one? Just for the week?
Close Call: Kyler Murray, Arizona (QB15) vs. Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City (QB16)
The Case for Murray: Murray’s numbers the past few weeks immediately aren’t great—he has cracked 200 passing yards just once in the past three games and has just one touchdown pass in each of those contests. Murray could be without top wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (concussion), and he faces a Los Angeles Chargers pass defense that ranks eighth in the NFL.
But we have seen that Murray can post fat stat lines—he threw for 266 yards and three touchdowns back in Week 2, adding another 59 yards on the ground. It’s that ability to hurt opponents on the ground that truly boosts Murray’s fantasy value, and with Harrison out, Murray may need to scramble more to keep the chains moving.
The Case for Mahomes: The Chiefs head to San Francisco a perfect 5-0, but it hasn’t been because of gaudy statistics from Mahomes—he hasn’t thrown multiple touchdown passes in a game since back in Week 3 and currently ranks 24th in fantasy points among quarterbacks—one spot behind Deshaun Watson of the Cleveland Browns.
However, Mahomes is coming off his best yardage effort of the 2024 campaign—331 yards in a Week 5 win over the New Orleans Saints. Against the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII, Mahomes threw for 333 yards and a pair of touchdowns. And the 49ers haven’t been a terrible fantasy matchup for quarterbacks—18th in fantasy points per game allowed to the position.
The Verdict: Mahomes. If Harrison clears the concussion protocol, that changes things, but with the Cardinals playing Monday night, fantasy managers may not be able to afford to wait. Sunday’s trip to San Fran is a statement game for Mahomes and the Chiefs, and he has a history of rising to such occasions. He’ll have his best game of the season in Week 7.
Close Call: Brian Robinson Jr., Washington (RB22) vs. Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville (RB24)
The Case for Robinson: Robinson carries some risk in Week 7—the third-year pro missed Week 6 with a knee injury. But he’s back on the practice field, and while speaking to reporters, he sounded like a young running back planning to play Sunday.
"I feel great," Robinson said. "More like myself again."
Assuming that Robinson does return to action Sunday, he will do so in a fantastic fantasy matchup against the lowly Panthers. The Panthers have struggled mightily in just about every way imaginable this season, including against the run—only the Los Angeles Rams and Indianapolis Colts have given up more rushing yards per game than the 153.5 the Panthers are surrendering.
The Case for Bigsby: While there are questions about Robinson’s availability for Week 7, Bigsby stands to benefit from an injury. Travis Etienne Jr. got in some limited practice time this week, but his hamstring injury was called “week-to-week.” Generally, that phrase means a player is going to miss at least one game.
If Etienne sits or is severely limited, we have seen what Bigsby can do as Jacksonville’s lead back—the second-year pro was a hot commodity on the waiver wire a couple of weeks back, piling up 105 yards and two touchdowns on just 13 carries. The New England Patriots can also be had on the ground, allowing just over 130 yards per game.
The Verdict: Robinson. We could be looking at shared backfields in both of these instances, but Robinson has the better matchup and has been a more productive player this year—two games with over 100 yards on the ground and a touchdown in four of the five games in which he’s played. Robinson should also benefit from a positive game script.