NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
Game Scripting & Roster Construction
Vegas predicts a close Thursday night game, giving a slight edge to the Falcons, 23-21, due to their home-field advantage. Both teams feature strong running backs who will challenge defenses that have struggled against the run—the Falcons rank 5th worst, and the Bucs 11th worst in rush defense. The low Vegas total makes sense, especially if the offenses focus on exploiting these weaknesses by running the ball. However, the Buccaneers, led by a resurgent Baker Mayfield, rank second only to the Seahawks in pass-rate-over-expected this season, showing they’re willing to throw even in obvious running situations.
In terms of roster construction, a balanced lineup (3-3 or 4-2) aligns well with the game’s projected script. While 5-1 lineups offer differentiation, they likely present negative expected value and should be used sparingly. As with any Showdown contest, the key is ensuring you roster players likely to score touchdowns. Contrarian options like Tyler Allgeier and Bucky Irving, who have seen significant red-zone opportunities through the first four weeks, are intriguing tournament plays.
Injury Roundup
The Falcons had a few scares earlier this week, with Bijan Robinson (hamstring) and Ray-Ray McCloud III (ankle) missing practices, but both are now active and should be considered viable DFS options for Thursday night. The only significant Atlanta absence is starting linebacker Troy Anderson, who injured his knee last week after earning NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors with 16 tackles and a pick-six.
Tampa Bay, however, will be without five players, including two starters: All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (foot) and right tackle Luke Goedeke (concussion). Winfield's absence slightly boosts Darnell Mooney’s value as a deep threat for the Falcons. Other absentees include defensive tackle Calijah Kancey and backup wide receivers Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer. Their absence could provide DFS value for lower-tier receivers like Sterling Shepard and Kameron Johnson as potential GPP flyers.
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