Dynasty, in Theory: Finding Win-Win Trades

There's a lot of really strong dynasty analysis out there, especially when compared to five or ten years ago. But most of it is so dang practical-- Player X is undervalued, Player Y's workload is troubling, the market at this position is irrational, and take this specific action to win your league. Dynasty, in Theory is meant as a corrective, offering insights and takeaways into the strategic and structural nature of the game that might not lead to an immediate benefit but which should help us become better players over time.

How To Trade

Today, we're going back to basics with a primer on how to trade in dynasty. Not "how to trade well" or "who to trade for" or "when to trade" or "what to trade away"-- that's all too practical. (Also, not "what buttons to click to execute a trade on your league's hosting platform". I'll assume you already have a working knowledge of the relevant software.) If another manager has players or picks you want, how do you get them to give you those players or picks in exchange for something you have?

Drilling to the core of the matter, you will want to trade with another manager when you value the thing you're getting more than the thing you're getting up. Likewise, the other manager will be willing to agree to that trade when they value the thing you're giving up more than the thing you're getting.

Searching For Disagreement

This suggests that the most obvious path to a trade is finding assets where you and the other manager disagree on what they're worth. And that's a fairly effective route. In one of my favorite trades, I gave JuJu Smith-Schuster and received A.J. Brown in 2019; I felt (correctly, with the benefit of hindsight) that Brown was just scratching the surface of his potential while Smith-Schuster was plausibly on his way down.

At the time, Brown and Smith-Schuster were essentially the same type of asset. Brown was a 22-year-old receiver en route to a strong start to his career. Smith-Schuster was a... 23-year-old receiver en route to a strong start to his career. The only way for such a trade to happen is for the two parties to fundamentally disagree on the value of one or both receivers.

Five years ago, these kinds of trades were not uncommon, but they're becoming a dying breed. In the older days of dynasty, player values were much more individual and would vary quite wildly from manager to manager. Recent years have seen the emergence of consensus value lists which have gained widespread acceptance, starting with monthly ADP from DynastyLeagueFootball about a decade ago and accelerating with the rise of KeepTradeCut and FantasyCalc, two free, community-driven consensus value estimates.

The consequence of the traction these "consensus value charts" have gained is that there's much less disagreement over player values than there was 5-10 years ago. I'm not saying this is bad-- I've written before about how it's a great idea to use these sources as an anchor in negotiations even when you disagree with them because it limits your downside risk. This is the optimal way to play, in my opinion. But it does make that old style of "just find two guys we disagree about" trade virtually impossible.

One promising area involves league adjustments. The consensus values are still relatively one-size-fits-all, but savvy dynasty managers know that player values are heavily dependent on league specifics like scoring and starting lineups. 

To that end, here at Footballguys we have Dan Hindery's Dynasty Trade Value Chart, which will customize its values to your own league's scoring and lineup rules (a massive advantage in dynasty, where those rules tend to vary from league to league much more substantially than they do in redraft).

I'm a huge fan of Hindery's charts and use them extensively in my own leagues, not least because Hindery approaches the game very similarly to how I do. They're a great way to find areas where a player's actual value given your league specifics differs substantially from the generic consensus values many of your leaguemates are referring to.