Chance to Play: Practice Participation

Our Adam Hutchison examines how practice participation affects a player's chance to play that week.

Adam Hutchison's Chance to Play: Practice Participation Adam Hutchison Published 09/01/2024

The Footballguys Injury Index contains injury timelines and fantasy performance outcomes specifically for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends from 2017-2023. Altogether, there are over 2,000 injuries in the database. However, to avoid any confusion, it is important to lay some ground rules. I am not saying that this is exactly what will happen. I do not have a crystal ball, nor should this report be used as one. Like most things in life, context is important. Every injury is unique.

Enjoy.

Sections of the Footballguys Injury Index

Chance to Play, Questionable vs. Doubtful
Chance to Play, Practice Participation
Games Played and Positional Volatility
Fantasy Performance and Re-Injury Rate by Position

Chance to Play: Practice Participation

A question often asked during the NFL season is:

"Player X did not practice this week? How likely are they to play?"

One of the newest editions to the Footballguys Injury Index is the table below, which looks at the percent change for a player to suit up on Sundays based on their final practice participation - the most predictive. For those not familiar with practice reports, there are three categories.

  • Full Participant (FP)
  • Limited Participant (LP)
  • Did Not Practice (DNP)

After looking at every NFL team's weekly practice report from 2017 through 2023, here are the results of how likely players are to play after the final practice report.

CategoryFinal PracticePercent Chance to Play
All InjuriesFP86%
All InjuriesLP71%
All InjuriesDNP29%

And here's data on three common injuries.

CategoryFinal PracticePercent Chance to Play
ConcussionFP85%
ConcussionLP57%
ConcussionDNP29%
Knee InjuryFP92%
Knee InjuryLP81%
Knee InjuryDNP28%
Hamstring StrainFP73%
Hamstring StrainLP62%
Hamstring StrainDNP20%

 

Photos provided by Imagn Images
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