Managing September in fantasy football. Do it well, and you can roll into the playoffs with depth. Over- or underreact, and it makes contending that much harder.
Welcome to Week 2 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- The 49ers Backfield
- Managing September (see below)
- The Subscriber Contest
- Week 1 Minefields
Let's roll.
Managing September
Matt Waldman: Are you a risk taker or conservative with lineup management and free agency during the first four weeks of the season? Answer the following topics with this initial question in mind.
- When do you begin to veer away from your projected starters (based on ADP) for players who performed well in early games?
- Are there players at positions you are more likely to drop early on so you can get a hot commodity on the waiver wire?
- Are there positions where you're more likely to ignore 1-2 strong weeks from a free agent and stick with your current personnel?
- Would you like to share something about managing in September that can help people know when to act and when to stay the course?
How are you managing September as a fantasy GM?
Managing September: When to Fade Projected Starters
Jeff Haseley: For me, it's a feeling. It's a combination of where the team is headed.
- Does this particular player have a good offensive system or quarterback?
- How does the carry share or target share look?
- Did an injury open the door that allowed a player to thrive?
- What are the circumstances behind the original player in the lineup that I may be replacing?
- Is there a big concern there?
If I feel good about all of that, I'll move forward immediately and hope to catch lightning in a bottle with a successful point-chasing decision. There are many factors, so it is not always a cut-and-dry decision.
Joseph Haggans: I start to look at free agents more after Week 2. You do not want to allow other managers the opportunity to swoop in and pick up a steal because you were holding on the somebody too long. Week 1 is too hard to decipher actual roles, but after Week 2, you recognize patterns and usage. Strike during waivers this week.
Ryan Weisse: I'm pretty conservative here. Unless someone was really bad, I'll stick with the guys I drafted to start for probably these first four weeks. When I have bench players who perform well, my first thought is to try to package and move them for a disappointing player who went off the board earlier in the draft.
Corey Spala: To begin the season, I am conservative. There were leagues where I left Isaiah Likely on the bench in Week 1. I should have known better with the matchup against Stephen Spagnuolo's Kansas City defense and Mark Andrews' recent car crash.
It will be important to understand consistency when looking to place a one-week performer as your starter. I would like to see consistency in data. This does not necessarily have to mean fantasy production, more so I want to know if their utilization is consistent. This could be snap share, targets per route run, or even separation win rate.
There are variables indicating a player is consistent, we just want to make sure they are getting volume. I would like to see at least three weeks to identify trends.
Sean Settle: I am very conservative in September when it comes to add/drop. I did not submit a single waiver claim after the first week because I still believe in the team I drafted and would like to see my waiver priority climb.
Jason Wood: It's generally unwise to give up on your starters after just a week or two unless they're dealing with an injury. There are exceptions, especially in deeper leagues where you might draft with the expectation of rotating your flex position based on a hot-hand approach.
But my rule of thumb is to wait three weeks because it gives us enough data to triangulate results. Week 2 performances often swing wildly in contrast to Week 1, and using Week 3 to help break the tie can prevent you from making rash decisions you'll regret later in the season.
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