Contract Terms
The New York Jets announced they have signed former Charger Mike Williams. According to multiple reports, the receiver is signing a one-year deal worth up to $15 million.
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Fantasy Football Impact
As ESPN.com's Rich Cimini reported, the Jets went into free agency looking to upgrade at the position opposite Garrett Wilson, a 1,000-yard receiver in each of his first two seasons.
Since 2018, Williams leads the NFL with 15.8 yards per reception among players with at least 200 catches, but he arrives with some durability questions.
A first-round pick by the Chargers in 2017 out of Clemson, Williams has spent his entire career with the Chargers playing in 80 games (62 starts) over the last seven seasons while racking up 309 receptions for 4,806 yards and 31 touchdowns. He exceeded 1,000 yards receiving in 2019 and in 2021 and led the league in yards per catch in 2019 (20.4).
The Jets' official website characterized Williams as "one of the NFL's most explosive and dynamic wide receivers" when announcing his signing.
Whether he's all that, it's fair to say with his 6-4 218-pound frame, Williams is one of the league's top jump-ball and deep pass receivers.
The Jets contend the advanced metrics have proved it.
According to Next Gen Stats, from 2018-23, 22.1 percent of Williams' targets came on deep throws, the fifth-highest percentage among players with at least 250 targets. In addition, for all players with 200-plus catches since 2023, Williams' 11.4 yards at catch per reception -- as opposed to YAC -- is the second-best in the NFL behind only five-time Pro Bowl receiver Mike Evans (12.2).
In Williams, the Jets see someone who can be a factor in the red zone and win contested balls. In 2022, he recorded a 57 percent catch rate on contested passes, 11th best among wide receivers, according to Pro Football Focus.
As for durability, he was limited to 10 games (with one start) as a rookie in 2017 while dealing with a herniated disk, tight hamstrings, and knee issues. Williams caught 11 passes for 95 yards in Year 1 but bounced back in Year 2 with a team-leading 10 touchdown receptions. In 2022, he missed four games, plus the Chargers' playoff loss. But from 2018 to 2021, he missed only three games before tearing an ACL in Week 3 last season, causing him to miss the remainder of the year.
Heading into the 2024 offseason, Williams said he feels "great" about his recovery.
"I am slightly ahead of my recovery and on the right pace," Williams told reporters following Week 17, approximately three months after surgery. "I am taking it one day at a time. It is a process, but I am getting ahead of it."
Should Williams thrive in New York, he could earn one more opportunity to cash in. He just needs to stay healthy enough to prove he's worth it.
Either way, expect Williams' WR76 spot on the initial Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings to rise -- likely higher than his early best-ball ADPs (Average Draft Positions) of WR54 on Underdog and WR47 on BestBall 10s.
It seems reasonable to expect those to rise now that we have clarity on his landing spot, potential role, and quarterback.
The Fantasy Football Fallout
Although he's coming off a season-ending Achilles tear suffered in Week 1 last year, Aaron Rodgers now has a receiving corps that features Wilson and Williams on the outside, with Xavier Gipson in the slot. Wilson and Williams are versatile players and can also play inside.
New York entered the offseason sorely lacking pass-catching targets for Rodgers, and Tuesday's move is a significant addition on a short-term deal.
Assuming he's healthy, and there's no reason to believe he won't be -- at least not based on glowing reports from late-season practices where he effectively ran the scout team offense against the starting defense, Rodgers could present great value at his current QB17 ranking. That could rise as the season draws nearer and drafters gain confidence he'll be available to Week 1, as expected.
Wilson remains a locked-in fantasy WR1. The third-year man is WR8 on our initial rankings and doesn't have much room to move up, but any move to keep opposing secondaries from focusing all their attention on him is a plus.
Allen Lazard has an uncertain role. After signing a four-year, $44 million contract, he made only 23 catches and was benched during a disappointing debut season in New York. Lazard, who played with Rodgers in Green Bay, probably will return because his $10 million salary is fully guaranteed, but he won't be a draft-worthy prospect.
The same can be said of Gipson, who is our WR105 but is going much later in early best balls (well outside Round 20)
In Los Angeles, with both Keenan Allen, who was traded to Chicago last week, and Williams out of the picture, the onus will be on rookie Quentin Johnston, Joshua Palmer, Derius Davis, and likely an incoming rookie to serve as Justin Herbert's top downfield weapons. Of course, Herbert's current QB15 spot on our rankings reflect the loss of his top wideouts, Austin Ekeler, who signed with the Commanders, and the departure of tight end Gerald Everett, who signed with the Bears.
It also takes into account the expectation that new head coach Jim Harbaugh and incoming offensive coordinator Greg Roman will lean heavily on the run, with newly signed Gus Edwards currently the top option at halfback.
Johnston and Palmer continue to rank as WR6-level fantasy prospects, but their values could rise as the season draws nearer. Edwards remains a potential value as our RB43, although he's also likely going to have some competition coming by way of April's draft.
Stock Watch
Risers
Fallers
Overview
The New York Jets have signed Mike Williams to a one-year deal worth up to $15 million, ending his free-agent tour early. Williams, released by the Chargers last week, was previously scheduled to visit the Panthers and Steelers. The 29-year-old is coming off a torn ACL suffered during the Chargers' Week 3 matchup with the Vikings but was off to a fast start in 2023, catching 19 passes for 249 yards with a touchdown in three games. Now, Williams should help improve a receiving corps featuring Garret Wilson in an offense that will benefit from the return of Aaron Rodgers as its quarterback in 2024.
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