Hot starts from QBs can sucker fantasy GMs into bad long-term moves. Four less likely candidates sit atop fantasy leaderboards after three weeks. Who is for real? Who is fool's gold?
Welcome to Week 4 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Backup Running Backs of Value
- Fantasy Assets/Fool's Gold: QB Edition (see below)
- Offensive Line Liabilities
- Defenses to Exploit
Let's roll.
QB Fantasy Assets or Fool's Gold
Matt Waldman: Pick one as a true asset. Pick one as fool's gold.
- Kyler Murray, Arizona
- Jayden Daniels, Washington
- Sam Darnold, Minnesota
- Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay
If you believe there is no true asset or no fool's gold from this quartet, give your best argument.
Andy Hicks: No fool's gold on this list for me, despite the temptation to throw Baker Mayfield in there. One bad game is acceptable; two would be a concern.
As an asset, count me in on Sam Darnold. Without the rookie first-round pick breathing down his back due to injury, Darnold gets a whole year to demonstrate that the ghosts he saw with the Jets and Panthers are gone.
Young quarterbacks need time to learn and get better. They shouldn't be expected to be an all-pro in their first season. The list of destroyed young quarterbacks mismanaged or thrown to the wolves grows every year. Darnold has shown fortitude. Now the talent that saw him drafted high originally before Adam Gase got his hands on him.
Jason Wood: Kyler Murray and Jayden Daniels are true assets (ranking in the top five in EPA per dropback), but since my colleagues will understandably praise Daniels, I'll shift the spotlight to Murray.
We already knew he had elite fantasy upside—he's been a fantasy QB1 in every healthy season despite inconsistent coaching. This year, however, we're seeing a smarter version of Murray, with improved decision-making, more patience in his progressions, and a focus on protecting himself when he breaks the pocket to run.
I'm still doubting Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. The fact that Darnold is younger than Joe Burrow leads me to focus on Mayfield for this conversation. Yes, Mayfield has been good since joining the Buccaneers, and yes, he's exceeded consensus expectations.
But he's not great. He finished last year as the No. 19 quarterback despite the accolades, as we tend to overlook his string of mediocre performances simply because we expected them all to be bad. This year, he's ranked QB6 through three weeks, but he has a negative EPA per dropback, and his one big statistical outing came against the Commanders' secondary, which is shaping up to be historically poor.