A bust is a player who can lead you to a losing season. And the earlier you have to pick a bust, the more damage he can do to your team.
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To be clear, we define busts as players who we think will perform worse than most expect and be overvalued at their average draft position.
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Our staff recently gathered to offer up their busts for this season. Here they are.
Tight End Bust from Jason Wood
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas
The Raiders are a franchise with too many questions to confidently invest in, as they were the one franchise desperate for a rookie quarterback who ended up missing out on the game of musical chairs. Bowers ends up in a situation with an uncertain quarterback room, an uninspired play-caller, and another well-pedigreed tight end already on the roster. Not to mention, Davante Adams remains a mega target hog. Drafting Bowers as a fantasy starter will have you more depressed than a Raiders season ticket holder come December.
Tight End Bust from Hutchinson Brown
David Njoku, Cleveland
I have a really hard time with Njoku in fantasy football, even though he won leagues last season down the stretch. My concern for his value isn't really his fault; I blame his quarterback, Deshaun Watson. Watson has historically been a horrible quarterback when you look at the tight end position. In his three full seasons as a Houston Texan, his TE1 has never finished inside the top twenty in the NFL targets. Not only has he shown to be a significantly worse overall quarterback than he was then, but in his games so far with Njoku, he has barely approached top-fifteen status at tight end. Taking the risk for his potential is understandable, but there are players at other positions and even a couple of tight ends in his range that I tend to prefer due to the massive problem Njoku has at quarterback.
Tight End Busts from Matt Waldman
David Njoku, Cleveland
Njoku had a career year in 2023 with receptions (81), yards (882), and touchdowns (6)> Much of that love came from Joe Flacco from Week 13-7. Those weeks accounted for only 29 percent of the season, but it was massive for Njoku's bottom line. Njokue earned 37 percent of his receptions, 44 percent of his yardage, and 66.7 percent of his scores during this brief window in the season.
If Deshaun Watson can return to form, Njoku's production could remain TE1-viable. If not, last year's returns were Flacco-inflated. There are better bargains, especially when considering that Njoku is at his best beating zone coverage and not man-to-man.
Luke Musgrave, Green Bay
The Packers are four-deep at receiver and Musgrave will likely split duties with Tucker Kraft. Unless there are injuries to multiple receivers, Musgrave is best considered a waiver-wire addition for weekly matchups and bye weeks. Musgrave's current draft value is based on his athletic prowess and a good offense but it's a dart-throw without a basis for every-week usage. Look elsewhere for more upside this late.
Tight End Bust from Andy Hicks
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas
Not every rookie tight end is Sam La Porta. Some are like the Raiders high pick at the position last year, Michael Mayer. He finished ranked 32nd, which is not usual. If this was a successful franchise, with a top quarterback and a strong offense, you might have a better argument for Bowers than here. First, let’s see how he handles preseason. We usually hear about rookies struggling with at least one part of their role or being outplayed by a veteran. Mayer has definitely lifted in year two I would take him at the value instead.
Tight End Bust from Phil Alexander
David Njoku, Cleveland
Njoku's ADP is fine if you don't expect him to repeat or surpass last year's TE6 finish. In Deshaun Watson's five full games as a starter, Njoku scored 3.4, 6.8, 4.0, 10.6, and 8.8 half-PPR fantasy points, respectively. His torrid stretch run came with tight end kingmaker Joe Flacco at quarterback, a bunch of wonky game scripts, and without a legitimate wide receiver playing alongside Amari Cooper in Cleveland. The book is still out on Jerry Jeudy, but the Browns liked him enough to shell out $52.5 million, including $41 million guaranteed, on a contract extension. We must assume Jeudy will command a higher target share than Elijah Moore's 16% from a year ago (and Moore is still on the team). The absence of Flacco and the addition of Jeudy are enough to take Njoku out of the set-it-and-forget-it TE1 conversation.