Welcome back to DFS First Look. Whether you've been grinding DFS for years or are just giving it a shot for the first time this season, the goal is the same: find the best values, attack the right matchups, and build lineups that can win.
We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, focus on determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust the most. Our goal is to equip you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations, enabling you to identify the best plays before the week unfolds.
Slate Overview
I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which plots each team's implied total on the X-axis and how much they're favored by on the Y-axis. The further to the right, the higher the team total; the higher up, the larger the spread in their favor. A dotted line connects each team's logo to its opponent's, giving a quick sense of both game context and matchup strength. I've always been a visual learner, and this layout helps the numbers click more than just scanning betting lines. Teams in the upper-right quadrant are favorites expected to score plenty of points, while those in the upper-left are underdogs in high-total games that could turn into shootouts. Teams in the lower-right are favorites in games expected to be very low scoring, while teams in the bottom-left are underdogs with low totals that we mostly want to avoid.
The Week 13 slate is shaping up to be very low scoring. Only one game, Bills-Steelers, has a total above 44.5 points, and only two teams, the Rams and Seahawks, have team totals of 26+ points. The Chargers have the next-highest total (27.75) and may actually be in the best overall position when you compare their projection this week to both their season average. One thing worth watching closely this week will be reports out of Los Angeles on Omarion Hampton's expected role as he returns from a long absence with a high ankle sprain. He could be in a great spot if the expectation is a full workload, but it remains uncertain if he will be eased back in or fully unleashed.
Positional Defense and Matchups Overview
Another way to identify potential value is by comparing each team's implied total from oddsmakers to its season scoring average. The tables below show the most favorable matchups, where teams are projected to score above their 2025 average, and the toughest ones, where teams are expected to fall below it.
To measure this, I look at how each defense performs relative to its opponents' typical production using FanDuel scoring. For example, if the Rams average 20 FanDuel QB points per game but San Francisco allows them to score 25, that defense would be +5 points allowed above expectation that week. By averaging those weekly differentials, we can see how much more or less each defense allows compared to its opponents' norms. Those positional defense metrics are reflected in the tables below.
Best Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 13 Main Slate expected to score more points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
LA Chargers
The Chargers' offense completely fell apart in the Week 11 loss to Jacksonville, struggling without both starting offensive tackles. Oddsmakers seem to believe the bye week and a soft matchup against the Raiders will help fix things. This is an especially appealing spot for the running backs since the Raiders give up 1.1 points per game above expectation to the position. Keep an eye on reports out of Los Angeles regarding Omarion Hampton. If he is back and expected to resume his workhorse role, he is underpriced.
Miami
The Saints' defense has been strong all season, giving up negative points per game above expectation to every position group. Even so, this still looks like a good spot for the Dolphins' offense. Miami's 23.8 implied team total is solid when compared to the rest of this low-scoring slate, and the 16 percent Week 13 scoring boost is the highest of any team with a team total above 18. De'Von Achane should be very popular.
Jacksonville
The Jaguars have a solid matchup against Tennessee, especially for the running backs. One of my big misses last week was believing Bhayshul Tuten might be on the verge of overtaking Travis Etienne Jr. Instead, Etienne handled 19 opportunities in the overtime win against Arizona, totaled 116 yards, and scored. He should be in another favorable spot against a Tennessee defense that gives up 4.0 points per game above expectation to opposing running backs.
Tennessee
The Titans' offense has shown signs of life since the bye and should not be overlooked entirely despite their 18-point team total. Cam Ward threw a career-high 42 passes in last week's competitive 30 to 24 loss to Seattle. Through the first 10 weeks, Ward had only 46 rushing yards and no touchdowns. Over the previous two weeks, he has had 70 rushing yards and a touchdown. He is clearly working to add a dual-threat element to his game, which gives him a higher fantasy ceiling.
Worst Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 13 Main Slate expected to score fewer points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
LA Rams
The Rams offense has been rolling, and the negative two percent Week 13 boost is not a concern. Carolina's defense has taken a real step forward and has been especially solid against the pass. This could be a good spot for Kyren Williams, though he has been splitting work with Blake Corum and has lost some goal-line chances because the fade to Davante Adams has been so effective near the end zone.
Buffalo
Josh Allen struggled last week against one of the league's most formidable defenses. He should rebound against a Steelers defense that has given up big numbers through the air.
DraftKings
Let's take a look at the top options on DraftKings according to the first run of Footballguys projections. Players at each position are listed in order of their projected Points Per Dollar ("PPD").