Disclaimer:
NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median forecast, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
Game Scripting & Roster Construction
This will be the third time that these two teams have played in less than a year. On paper, the Ravens have had the Bills' number despite the 1-1 record, as offensively, Buffalo has been a disaster, and it took three turnovers in their playoff win to pull out a victory.
Look for the Ravens to continue to utilize the same game plan, which is to run the ball heavily with Derrick Henry to set up the passing game. On Buffalo’s side, they’re going to need to figure out how to get success against this Ravens defense, as they’re averaging just 254 yards per game in those two contests.
Injury Roundup
Isaiah Likely is out this week with a foot injury. Likely was the leading receiver for Baltimore in that playoff game with 73 yards. This should have more targets go towards Mark Andrews this week.
Captain Considerations
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson (Captain or Flex)
For Jackson, the upside is that there is every single week to be the top captain on the slate. Coming off of an incredible 41 touchdown, 4 interception season in which he did not win the MVP, there could be some extra motivation for this game besides the Bills eliminating the Ravens last season. Buffalo has done a good job keeping Jackson from having a massive game, with Jackson never topping more than 25 DraftKings points against Buffalo.