Eyes of the Guru IDP Info: Week 13

Guru's IDP Notes: Arizona Cardinals

The call to start Arizona's safeties last week turned out to be a good one. Jalen Thompson ripped off a 6-3-1, with a pass breakup, and a fumble recovery. Budda Baker was not far behind at 4-5-.5 with an interception. This week's matchup with the Buccaneers is not as strong, but as long as Baker Mayfield plays, it's a good one. It might be a decent one even if Teddy Bridgewater is under center, but that would change the dynamic of the offense and make starting Thompson or Baker more risky.

Guru's IDP Notes: Atlanta Falcons

The downside to getting my column posted on Wednesday afternoon is that a lot of news comes out after it is posted. Last week, for example, I was talking up Ronnie Harrison Jr. coming off his big game. Just a few hours after posting the article, I saw that Divine Deablo had been activated and was expected to play. My sincere apologies if this bit anyone. Deablo was back on the field with no limitations and thrown right into the fire, going 6-2 on a 99% snap share while Harrison played 18 snaps.

The team has moved Billy Bowman Jr. and Zach Harrison to IR. With Bowman out, Dee Alford took over the nickel duties and exploded for 9-1, a fumble recovery, and a pass breakup. The shift to Tyrod Taylor at quarterback is likely a plus, but the Jets have been a rather dismal matchup for corners on most weeks.

Jessie Bates III reached double-digit fantasy points in one of the first eight games. Then the light came on. He's reached double-digits in three consecutive games with 18 tackles, 6 assists, 2 turnovers, and 3 pass breakups in those games. So what happened? The team's struggles on the scoreboard are a factor, as are injuries at the second level. The biggest thing I am seeing is Bates moving up closer to the line more often. Early on, he was working almost solely in the deep, center field role. That made sense with rookie Xavier Watts still getting his feet under him. In the more recent games, it looks as if the coaching staff has more confidence in their young guy, and we're seeing the safeties work more interchangeably. New York is a mediocre matchup for safeties. Atlanta gets Seattle, Tampa Bay, and Arizona after that. I like the chances of Bates staying hot until they get to the Rams in week 17.

Good production at the tackle position is hard to come by. If you find yourself in need, take a look at Brandon Dorlus. After a 2-2-1.5 against the Saints, he now has 11 tackles and 4.5 sacks over the past four games. Dorlus is seeing increased playing time of late, logging 93 snaps over the last two games, and the Jets are a great matchup for interior linemen.

Guru's IDP Notes: Baltimore Ravens

It took the Jets to bring out the pass rush for Baltimore. Mike Green had a good game at 2-3-1, and Dre'Mont Jones came through at 2-2-1.5. Many managers will see the Bengals matchup and assume it is a plus for these guys. Those who have been paying attention know better. Cincinnati has given up an average of a sack and a half per game since week six.

I like Marlon Humphrey this week. With Tee Higgins out, Ja'Marr Chase could see 20 targets. Humphrey should be in coverage on most of them. In the two times these teams met last year, he totaled 8 tackles, 2 takeaways, and 3 passes defended.

Guru's IDP Notes: Buffalo Bills

Terrell Bernard missed the second half against Houston with an elbow injury. The team is calling him week-to-week while reportedly considering an IR stint. It's a safe bet that he will not suit up this week. Unfortunately, how the team will shuffle playing time between Matt Milano, Dorian Williams, and Shaq Thompson is clear as mud. For what it's worth, Thompson led those three in snaps last week.

Maxwell Hairston suffered a concussion in Thursday's game. The extra day will help his chances of playing.

Guru's IDP Notes: Carolina Panthers

Claudin Cherelus and Krys Barnes were the Panthers' starting linebackers on Monday night. Cherelus recorded four tackles on 28 snaps before leaving with a concussion. Bam Martin-Scott finished the game.

Krys Barnes is one of those players who can never win a starting job but always puts up good numbers when opportunity arises. This was no exception as he led the team with 10 combined stops versus San Francisco. Barnes could be in line for another start, but be aware that the Rams have allowed the third fewest points to linebackers, and that the Panthers are off in week 14.

Jaycee Horn had a huge night before leaving with a concussion. If Horn misses week 13, look for Chau Smith-Wade to step in.

Tre'von Moehrig will get a one-week vacation courtesy of the league office for a cheap shot on Juan Jennings on Monday night. If you need a sneaky one-week play, give Lathan Ransom a shot.

Guru's IDP Notes: Chicago Bears

Tremaine Edmunds is out 4-6 weeks with a groin injury. T.J. Edwards is nursing a sore hamstring, and Noah Sewell has a sore elbow. That made Ruben Hyppolite II and D'Marco Jackson the starters against Pittsburgh. Jackson had the lead role, finishing with 15 total stops (5-10) on 100% participation. Hyppolite lasted 13 snaps before suffering what could be a season-ending shoulder injury. Amen Ogbongbemiga came on to finish 2-12 on 58% of the snaps. There is a chance that Chicago could have Sewell and/or Edwards back for week 13. Unless they are both available, Jackson would be in line for another start/

Tyrique Stevenson aggravated his hip injury and was not able to finish. His availability for week 13 is in question. Nick McCloud would be the next man up.

The adrenaline must have worn off for C.J. Gardner-Johnson. He came out like gangbusters in his first couple of starts, but like the rest of his career, he fizzled quickly.

Guru's IDP Notes: Cincinnati Bengals

Barrett Carter is a huge step down from Logan Wilson in the splash play department, but he is developing into a tackling machine. With 16 combined stops (8-8) against the Patriots, Carter has reached double-digit points in five of his six starts. Unfortunately, he is still looking for that first big play. Even if he doesn't get it this week, Carter is a good play against a Ravens offense that has seen opposing linebackers average 20 stops per game since week six.

Guru's IDP Notes: Cleveland Browns

The Browns racked up 10 sacks against the Raiders' depleted offensive line last week, including three more for Myles Garrett. There will be no grand encore this week against a 49ers offense that allows good tackle totals across all positions except corner, but doesn't provide much big-play opportunity most of the time. The three interceptions by Brock Purdy last week were an apparition, and San Francisco is allowing fewer than 2 sacks per game since week 6

Guru's IDP Notes: Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys played five linebackers in week eleven, leaving us wondering what the ultimate plan would be. After week twelve, it looks like the ultimate plan might be to play five linebackers. DeMarvion Overshown led the group in both tackles at 4-1, and was second in snaps at 59%. Kenneth Murray Jr. went 1-2 with a recovery on %, Logan Wilson was 2-0 on 38%, Shemar James was 2-0 on  12 snaps, and Marist Liufau had no stats on 8 plays. What a waste.

There is some good news if you have Quinnen Williams. He put a single tackle on the stat sheet but was on the field for 73% of the action.

Guru's IDP Notes: Denver Broncos

Alex Singleton is expected to practice this week and should be available to face the Commanders. Patrick Surtain II Jr. is getting closer, but a return this week is not anticipated.

Guru's IDP Notes: Detroit Lions

D.J. Reed returned to action in week twelve. He was not in his normal starting role, though. After missing the last seven weeks, Reed worked as the nickel corner, seeing action on 38% of the snaps. It is safe to expect an expanded role as he works back into game shape. The Packers are a below-average matchup for corners anyway, but it would be good to see him in an every-down role before the week 14 matchup with Dallas, who has allowed the second-most points to the position since week 6.

Guru's IDP Notes: Green Bay Packers