Strength of Schedule: The Key to Fantasy Football Success in the Second Half
The second half of the 2025 NFL season is almost here, and with it comes the crucial stretch of games that will determine who makes the playoffs and who goes home. For fantasy football managers, this means paying close attention to Strength of Schedule (SOS) as you make your lineup decisions. This can also be a guide for improving your roster through trades. The more you know about a player's schedule, the better off you will be with your trade proposals.
SOS is a measure of how difficult a team's schedule is based on the combined winning percentages of its opponents. A team with a tough SOS will face more talented defenses and offenses, while a team with an easy SOS will have a more favorable path to victory.
When it comes to fantasy football, SOS is vital in the playoffs (Weeks 15-17). This is because you want to have your best players on the field during the most crucial games of the season. If you have a player on a team with a tough SOS, they may be more likely to struggle and disappoint you in your fantasy league.
On the other hand, if you have a player on a team with an easy SOS, they are more likely to put up big numbers and help you win your fantasy league.
Here is a look at the Strength of Schedule for all 32 NFL teams from Week 8, sorted by SOS strength (1 = hardest, 32 = easiest). Credit to our good friends at tankathon.com for this chart. Interestingly enough, eight of the top 10 toughest remaining schedules are NFC teams, with Houston (3rd toughest) and Tennessee (10 toughest) as the only AFC teams.
Keep in mind, this chart is determined by win percentage, so some teams like Atlanta, Carolina, Minnesota, Cleveland, NY Giants, etc have shown at least one strong defensive category. They show as easy opponents due to having fewer than five wins. Use this chart as a tool, but know it's not driven specifically by defensive or offensive results, but by wins and losses.
As you can see, there is a wide range of SOS values across the league. Some teams have a difficult road ahead, while others have a much easier path to the playoffs.
Footballguys Classic Strength of Schedule
Footballguys has an interactive tool where you can sort Strength of Schedule results by week and position and customize it to your league's scoring system.
The image below displays running back SOS for a PPR scoring system, sorted by Week 8. You can see that Chicago has the best SOS matchup against Baltimore with +8.7. The number under the team abbreviation in each cell reflects the number of fantasy points per game the team has given up against that position compared to the number of points per game that team's opponents have scored in their other games. For example, if you see +3 under NYJ for running backs, it means that running backs have scored, on average, 3 more fantasy points per game against the Jets than against the rest of their opponents. Thus, a positive number indicates a bad defense and a good matchup.
If you want to look at other positions, sort by other weeks, or even other league scoring formats, you can easily do so. Use this tool to your advantage.
Below is another example, looking at the SOS for quarterbacks sorted by Week 15, but you can also gauge other weeks. Say, for example, you want to see how a team's SOS also shapes up for Week 16 and Week 17. Those with +numbered results for Weeks 15, 16, and 17 (Miami, Cleveland, and Baltimore) are indicated with a red arrow and their opponent in yellow. That would mean their SOS for the playoff stretch (Weeks 15, 16, 17) is a good one because they have three consecutive weeks of positive numerical value.
Playoff Quarterbacks to Target
When looking at teams with favorable schedules for quarterbacks in Weeks 15-17, it is difficult to find a good quarterback for all three weeks. The best example may be Baltimore and Lamar Jackson with games against Cincinnati, New England, and Green Bay. All three of those opponents have a positive score for fantasy points against; however, the Week 17 game at Green Bay gives me some pause. Green Bay has been a different team at home, allowing less than 20 points in each home game this year. This could be a back-and-forth matchup, which normally yields good production at quarterback, but there are some concerns.
Cleveland is another team that looks favorable for playoff quarterback production in the model; however, their quarterback room is less than desirable, with questionable production from current starter Dillon Gabriel. For them to trade Joe Flacco to Cincinnati, they either feel good about Shedeur Sanders or perhaps feel like Deshaun Watson could make a late-season return. If the model holds, Sanders may be someone to consider as a pre-emptive pickup in deeper leagues or leagues with multiple quarterbacks.
Miami also shows a favorable schedule for the playoff stretch in this model, but do you want to hang your hat on Tua Tagovailoa for the playoffs? He has passed for less than 200 yards in four of seven games.
It may be tough to find a specific quarterback or team with a great schedule for each week of the playoffs. If looking at each week, we see positive potential from the following.
Week 15: CIN, MIA, MIN, CLE, BAL, PIT, DEN
Week 16: NE, DET, LAC, GB, MIA, CIN, CHI
Week 17: GB, CLE, WAS, SF, ARI, TB, BAL
Another strategy is to look at who plays (insert bad team). Perhaps bad isn't the right word, but vulnerable. Through Week 7, the following teams are allowing the most fantasy points per game on average to opposing quarterbacks.
Dallas, Baltimore, Miami, and Pittsburgh all allow 20.0 fantasy points or more per game to quarterbacks on average. Whereas Houston, Atlanta, Cleveland, Denver, Minnesota, and Carolina all allow on average, less than 15.0 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.