In the NFL, glory is a fleeting shadow, cast one moment and gone the next. Brian Burns, once a blazing comet in the league's edge-rushing constellation, now flickers on the edge of obscurity. The NFL's relentless churn spares no one—yesterday's prodigy can become tomorrow's afterthought in a single season. Burns, a former darling of both NFL scouts and IDP fantasy football enthusiasts, has slipped into that dreaded gray zone: the "should I draft him?" tier, where potential and peril collide.
I'm planting my flag early for 2025: Brian Burns is a bust waiting to happen.
This isn't about denying his talent or ignoring his circumstances; it's about confronting the uncomfortable truth that hype has outpaced reality. The world has moved on since Burns' 2020 breakout, yet some still cling to that fading promise. Let's peel back the layers of his fall from grace and ask: What happens when potential becomes a trap?
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Hype Train in Full Force
Brian Burns burst onto the NFL scene in 2019 as a first-round pick for the Carolina Panthers, quickly becoming an IDP fantasy darling with his tantalizing blend of youth, opportunity, and production. His rookie season, 25 tackles and 7.5 sacks on a lackluster Panthers defense, hinted at star potential. By 2020, he elevated his game, posting 59 tackles and 8 sacks, cementing his status as an ascending asset in both NFL and IDP circles.
However, the hype that once seemed justified now appears like a mirage. Burns' trajectory has plateaued, and I'm skeptical he'll deliver on his lofty draft cost in 2025. While he's durable and consistent, with a career-high 71 tackles in 2024, his pass-rushing impact has stagnated, as he has recorded eight or fewer sacks in five straight seasons, including just eight in 2024 with the Giants.
For dynasty managers seeking long-term growth or redraft players looking for ADP value, Burns' profile raises concerns. His tackle numbers are solid but not elite, and banking on an outlier spike in sacks is a risky bet. Burns' name carries more weight than his recent output, often pushing him ahead of younger, higher-upside edge rushers on defenses better suited for growth. His inability to consistently dominate games, whether in Carolina or New York, suggests he's closer to a reliable floor than a transformative ceiling, a trap for those seduced by his fading 2020 glow.
What Should We Expect?
Labeling Brian Burns a "bust" might be harsh, but he's getting over-drafted, and fantasy managers should steer clear. The Giants are a mess, and it's going to tank Burns' production. Their quarterback situation—Russell Wilson or Jaxson Dart—is shaky at best, and the defense is barely holding it together. With the NFL's toughest schedule based on last season's win totals, plus six brutal NFC East games against stronger teams, the Giants will be playing from behind a lot. When they're trailing, opponents won't need to pass much; they'll just run the ball and control the clock. Fewer passes mean fewer sacks for Burns, forcing him to rack up tackles instead of fantasy points. Malik Nabers is their only real offensive weapon, but even if you believe in Wilson or Dart, this offense has a low ceiling. The Giants are in for a rough season, and Burns' stats will suffer for it. Instead of breaking out, he's likely stuck in another year of "maybe next time" hype rather than climbing the fantasy ranks.
There's Value Here
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