Death, Taxes, and Justin Jefferson's Fantasy Points
Few things in fantasy football are as dependable as Justin Jefferson's weekly production. Since entering the league, Jefferson has been a cornerstone asset, finishing as a top-five wide receiver on a per-game basis every season except his rookie year in 2020, when he began as a part-time player and erupted after the Minnesota Vikings' bye week.
In 2023, Jefferson had every reason to regress. Kirk Cousins suffered a season-ending injury, and Jefferson caught passes from a revolving door of backups: Joshua Dobbs, Jaren Hall, and Nick Mullens. Despite those challenges—and his own time missed due to injury—Jefferson still averaged over 100 receiving yards per game without Cousins under center.
2024 rolls around, and there's hope on the horizon. The team takes J.J. McCarthy in the top ten, and signs Sam Darnold as a fixer-upper backup option. McCarthy ends up having to take a redshirt for his rookie season, and the fantasy community is posed with the impossible question - is Justin Jefferson good enough to produce with Darnold as his primary quarterback? That question pushed his average draft position (ADP) to WR5—ironically, the lowest mark of his career and his historical floor. He reminded the doubters that he doesn't need a fancy quarterback, just a functional arm to get him the ball. He finished as the No. 3 fantasy receiver on the season and No. 5 in points per game.
Justin Jefferson's pitch to be a top receiver in 2025 is easy:
- He has a proven track record of elite production across all four of his NFL seasons.
- He has shown resilience in the face of poor quarterback play.
- With J.J. McCarthy likely taking over and Kevin O'Connell still orchestrating the offense, Jefferson's ceiling could be even higher.
Justin Jefferson's Opportunity Cost Versus Expectations
It's no secret that if fantasy managers want Jefferson on their rosters in 2025, they will have to pay up. He's a top-three pick in current average draft position (ADP) and the second receiver off the board. Footballguys' projections reflect that value. In our consensus outlook, Jefferson ranks as the No. 2 wide receiver.
Jefferson has hovered just under a 30% target share over his career, and the sheer volume of targets he commands keeps his floor relatively safe. He's in line for more of the same in 2025, even as T.J. Hockenson returns from injury and Jordan Addison gets his share. He's being drafted exactly where he's expected to finish, at the top.
Keeping Up a Historic Rate
Justin Jefferson isn't just one of the best options in fantasy football; he's chasing some of the NFL's all-time greats. Through five seasons, his production places him in elite company:
| Player Name | Receiving Yards | Receiving TDs | Receptions | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 7432 | 40 | 495 | 77 |
| Tory Holt | 6784 | 35 | 423 | 80 |
| Randy Moss | 6743 | 60 | 414 | 80 |
| Jerry Rice | 6364 | 66 | 346 | 76 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 6339 | 38 | 496 | 81 |
| Julio Jones | 6201 | 34 | 414 | 65 |
| A.J. Green | 6171 | 45 | 415 | 76 |
| Mike Evans | 6103 | 40 | 395 | 77 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 5975 | 46 | 426 | 76 |
| Michael Thomas | 5950 | 32 | 510 | 70 |
Jefferson leads all players in receiving yards through five seasons. He ranks third in receptions and second all-time in receiving yards per game, trailing only Hall of Famer Lance Alworth. The only slight blemish is in touchdowns, but year-to-year scoring variance makes that the least stable wide receiver metric.
With his 2025 projections added to the tally, Jefferson is set to crack the top 100 in career receiving yards and will continue to climb leaderboards at a historic pace.
He's not just a top-tier fantasy asset in 2025; he's authoring a Hall of Fame career in real time.
| Player | Pos | Age | Games | Carries | 1D | TD | YDS | 1D | REC | TDS | YDS | FPs/G | FPs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson MIN | WR | 25 | 16.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 8 | 68.0 | 102.5 | 9.0 | 1433 | 18.87 | 301.85 |
| Malik Nabers NYG | WR | 21 | 16.0 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 33 | 65.4 | 103.5 | 10.0 | 1315 | 18.62 | 297.95 |
| CeeDee Lamb DAL | WR | 26 | 16.0 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 69 | 63.0 | 100.0 | 9.5 | 1269 | 18.24 | 291.8 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown DET | WR | 25 | 16.0 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 15 | 62.8 | 105.5 | 10.5 | 1193 | 18.05 | 288.8 |
| Puka Nacua LAR | WR | 23 | 15.5 | 12.0 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 60 | 65.1 | 102.5 | 6.8 | 1348 | 18.41 | 285.3 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. JAX | WR | 22 | 16.0 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 37 | 61.2 | 92.0 | 9.5 | 1281 | 17.53 | 280.45 |
| Nico Collins HOU | WR | 26 | 15.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 3 | 60.3 | 89.5 | 8.0 | 1287 | 17.17 | 266.15 |
| Drake London ATL | WR | 23 | 16.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 3 | 57.9 | 93.0 | 8.8 | 1158 | 16.33 | 261.35 |
| Ladd McConkey LAC | WR | 23 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 58.5 | 92.5 | 7.5 | 1196 | 16.07 | 257.05 |
There's not much more of a case to be made; Justin Jefferson is a safe bet at his ADP outside of injury. But what he does to his quarterback and the rest of the offense is where things get interesting.
