The NFL preseason is filled with more news than ever. If you want to find a reason to move someone up or down in your projections, it's probably out there. The key to accuracy, however, is to lean into the real news while dismissing the noise.
It's a tough task, but here's where my projections have moved recently.
And let's get the bad news out of the way first.
Recent Fallers
RB Breece Hall, NY Jets
Breece Hall's projections have declined as the Jets' new coaching staff has hinted at a more committee-based approach in the backfield. Braelon Allen is the primary beneficiary.
RB Kaleb Johnson, Pittsburgh
Kaleb Johnson's projections have declined this week after concerning training camp reports noted that "it feels like we are watching Najee Harris" and expressed disappointment in his explosiveness through camp. Jaylen Warren benefits as the clear lead back.
RB Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland
Quinshon Judkins's projections have continued their downward trajectory since his arrest on domestic violence charges in July, leaving him unsigned and missing all of training camp so far while his legal situation remains unresolved. Jerome Ford is the primary beneficiary as the Browns' current lead back.
RB Joe Mixon, Houston
Joe Mixon's projections have fallen as he's expected to be out for an extended period with a foot injury and may miss Week 1, with the injury having lingered since the offseason. Nick Chubb is the primary beneficiary, positioned to take over lead back duties for the Texans.
RB Tyjae Spears, Tennessee
Tyjae Spears' projections have fallen after he was carted off the field with a lower right leg injury during the preseason game against Tampa Bay. It's unclear whether Spears will be ready for the start of the regular season. Tony Pollard is the primary beneficiary.
WR Jordan Addison, Minnesota
Jordan Addison's projections have fallen due to his three-game suspension for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy related to his 2024 DUI arrest.
WR Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco
Brandon Aiyuk's projections have dropped after 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan specifically targeted Week 6 (October 12) for his return on August 11, confirming he'll miss at least the first five games and possibly more. Ricky Pearsall is the primary beneficiary.
WR Jack Bech, Las Vegas
Jack Bech's projections have fallen as fourth-round pick Dont'e Thornton Jr. has consistently outperformed him throughout training camp, with multiple reports noting that Thornton has been taking first-team reps and making splash plays daily, while Bech has worked primarily with the backups.
WR Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay
Chris Godwin's projections have declined after Buccaneers GM Jason Licht's comments on August 6 that "we've still got a ways to go" in his recovery, suggesting he may not be ready for Week 1 despite earlier optimism. Emeka Egbuka is the primary beneficiary and is positioned to start if Godwin isn't ready.
WR Tre Harris, LA Chargers
Tre Harris's projections took a hit when the Chargers re-signed Keenan Allen, bumping Harris from a potential starting role to competing with Quentin Johnston for playing time.
WR Quentin Johnston, LA Chargers
Quentin Johnston's projections have declined due to the return of Keenan Allen, though he's actually been performing well in camp.
WR Terry McLaurin, Washington
Terry McLaurin's projections have dropped due to his ongoing contract holdout with the Commanders, with the team reluctant to meet his asking price partly due to age concerns as he turns 30 in September.
WR Darnell Mooney, Atlanta
Darnell Mooney's projections have fallen due to a shoulder injury that has him week-to-week, with his Week 1 availability uncertain after leaving practice early following a diving catch attempt.
WR Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis
Michael Pittman Jr.'s projections have been affected by a minor groin injury that caused him to miss practice, though he's expected to return soon and be ready for the season.
WR Jayden Reed, Green Bay
Jayden Reed's projections have dipped due to a sprained foot that has him in a walking boot, though he's expected to be ready for Week 1.
WR Rashee Rice, Kansas City
Rashee Rice's projections have fallen because his forthcoming suspension is expected to be announced soon. He's likely facing four to six games due to his involvement in a car accident case in Dallas.
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