Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Leveraging Uncertainty
Even as we hit the halfway point in August, fantasy managers are facing several situations with uncertain outcomes.
Increasing Concerns
The lack of information on Texans running back Joe Mixon, who has yet to appear at training camp due to a mysterious foot injury is worrisome. He is currently on the Active/Non-Football Injury list. I spoke with John McClain, a well-connected beat reporter who has covered the NFL for 49 years and the Texans from Day 1, last week.
Asked what we know about Mixon's status, McClain replied: "We have no idea -- and the Texans have no idea -- when Mixon will be ready."
It's possible that Mixon isn't ready for Week 1, and that he's not really 100 percent at any point this year.
Nick Chubb would be the presumptive starter if Mixon is out, but McClain hasn't been impressed with the former Brown. Dameon Pierce is still in the mix there, and fourth-round pick Woody Marks, already an excellent passing-down back, might be a passable early-down option.
As Footballguy Cecil Lammey noted, the Texans are also rebuilding their offensive line and shuffling starting five combinations. But McClain told me "nobody has a clue" if that unit is going to be better, worse, or just as bad as it was last year when C.J. Stroud was sacked 52 times.
I hope to have more on Mixon and the Texans' plans at running back next week, but the outlook in the moment is pretty bleak . . .
Good To Go?
Rams QB Matthew Stafford (back), Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson (hamstring), and Giants star Malik Nabers are all missing time in practice.
Should we be concerned?
Despite sitting out the last 10 days, nobody in New York seems concerned about Nabers' sore toe, which he's been dealing with since his college days at LSU.
Scroll down to The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly section below for my takes on Stafford and Jefferson . . .
Rice's Suspension Risk
We learned on Thursday that Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice is expected to have his disciplinary hearing with the NFL on Sept. 30 in New York. That means he's likely to be able to play the first four weeks of the season before any potential discipline is imposed for his role in a multicar crash in Dallas that left multiple people injured during the 2024 offseason.
But we also learned the league would like to suspend Rice for 10-plus games:
The NFL initially proposed a lengthy suspension that would sideline #Chiefs WR Rashee Rice for over half the season. And while a Sept. 30 hearing date has been set, it’s still possible a settlement could be reached before the season. @NFLGameDay @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/kHOozuu1RW
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) August 15, 2025
Despite the uncertainty, Rice is being drafted as WR24 with the 50th pick overall. With players like DeVonta Smith, Jameson Williams, Tetairoa McMillan, Calvin Ridley, Jaylen Waddle, and Rome Odunze among the wideouts going over the next three rounds, drafting Rice at cost feels way too aggressive . . .
Legally Safe, But Not In The Clear
The decision by prosecutors not to pursue formal domestic violence charges against Browns running back Quinshon Judkins ends the criminal legal process. While fantasy investors are likely to take this as a sign it's safe to start drafting the rookie, for the NFL, it's a starting point for its procedures.
That's right. The league could still suspend Judkins under the Personal Conduct Policy.
As Profootballtalk.com's Mike Florio explained, in a court of law, a high standard of proof applies to defendants accused of a crime -- proof beyond a reasonable doubt. The NFL uses a much lower bar. And so, if the alleged victim cooperates, the league could eventually conclude that she's telling the truth about what happened.
Judkins, selected in the second round of April's draft, is the last unsigned draft pick . . .
Money Matters
James Cook got a new deal in Buffalo while Commanders wideout Terry McLaurin continues his hold-in.
Check the This And That section for details on Cook's extension; you'll find more on McLaurin in The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly (and he's not The Good) . . .
Want More Stuff Like This?
The Footballguys 2025 Preseason Reports have everything you need to know from each team’s training camps and preseason games, plus what it means for your leagues . . .
With the preliminaries out of the way, it's time to close out our offseason-long series on the coaching hires that will have the most significant impact in shaping the 2025 fantasy season.
In case you haven't been following along all year, the Fantasy Notebook has covered the incoming playcallers in Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, Jacksonville, Las Vegas, New England, New Orleans, the New York Jets, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Seattle over the last three months.
So, let's dive into one more . . .
Getting Coordinated: Will The Third Time Also Be A Charm?
As ESPN.com's Ben Solak noted, the Buccaneers have achieved a rare and wonderful thing this offseason: They are slated to return all 11 starters from their 2024 offense. The only change is on the headset. Liam Coen left for the Jaguars' head coaching job, and Josh Grizzard was elevated from passing game coordinator to offensive coordinator.
Grizzard will be charged with the task of keeping the wheels turning on an offense that averaged 28.6 points as quarterback Baker Mayfield tossed 41 touchdown passes.
Footballguy Jason Wood views this as a best-case scenario. "The Buccaneers won 10 games last year and are currently pegged at 9.5 wins, implying another playoff-caliber season," Wood wrote. "The key cogs all return, outside of Coen."
This will be the third-straight year the team has changed its playcaller. First, Dave Canales left to become the head coach of the Panthers in 2024. Then Coen left earlier this year. Now it's Grizzard's turn . . .
Positives?
At just 34 years old, and with experience under Mike McDaniel and Coen, Solak believes it's fair to have "next big thing" suspicions around Grizzard.
If he can keep the train chugging from last season, the Bucs should have a top-10 offense again . . .
The Path To Success
Head coach Todd Bowles recently said Grizzard is only "tweaking" the team's offensive system from 2024 and credits Grizzard with last year's successes on third down.
Bowles explained that Grizzard designed the Buccaneers' third-down plays, which yielded an NFL-best 50.7 percent conversion rate.
The Buccaneers' offense should once again function as a fantasy-friendly unit in 2025 . . .
Something To Prove
Grizzard has never called plays before but feels he's ready.
"I would say two years ago I really started thinking like a coordinator," Grizzard told ESPN.com's Jenna Laine. "When you're in the booth and you're looking at coverages and just doing your mundane [quality control] work, you start thinking, 'Okay, what do I call next? What do I call next? What's this situation?' Whatever it might be. Over the last two years [I was] trying to think in that way to prepare myself for this day."
Like with 2023 offensive coordinator Dave Canales, now the head coach of the Carolina Panthers, the Bucs are implementing periods in training camp and practices to call plays to help him acclimate.
"I mean, Dave hadn't called plays until Tampa, but you get used to it," Mayfield said. "We were in every meeting together, so how involved he was in the game and whatnot, I know that he's going to be a good playcaller. You can just sense that already."
Grizzard was Coen's right-hand man in Tampa. In addition to being responsible for all their third-down packages, on game days, Grizzard served as his eye in the sky while Coen was down on the field. From the coach's booth, he communicated coverages and pressures to him, and if there were unscouted looks, he would assist in determining how best to attack them.
"Grizz knows [this system] like the back of his hand," left tackle Tristan Wirfs said. "He's a wizard . . . He knows what to do. He knows what to call."
All that being the case, the question for fantasy managers is how much this offense might evolve with Grizzard at the helm?
Incremental Change?
The Bucs won't try to reinvent the wheel, but the offense will feature some new wrinkles, gleaned from Grizzard's time with the Miami Dolphins under Mike McDaniel and Adam Gase, and working under David Cutcliffe at Duke. The verbiage, formations, and motions will stay the same, which means there wasn't a learning curve in April, like there was in the past two seasons.
"The continuity will remain essentially the same. What you want to do, like we did last year, is morph it to the players," Grizzard said. "With that said, I do think you have to evolve every year because now there is a full season of tape on what we did here and now people are studying that . . . There are things I've done in my past that I want to add to it to continue to apply pressure, but again, the last thing you want is to get stagnant. So now we can take it to the next level."
Grizzard certainly got some learning lessons last season.
According to Laine, the Bucs came into the year thinking they were going to be an 11-personnel team -- one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers -- but that changed. They started using 21 personnel -- two running backs, a tight end, and two receivers -- with the emergence of rookie running back Bucky Irving.
Then injuries mounted. At one point, they were down all three starting wide receivers -- in Week 9 at the Kansas City Chiefs. Tight end Cade Otton stepped into Chris Godwin's role in the slot.
And since they got so good at the run, they utilized more 13 personnel -- one running back, three tight ends, and a receiver. They also came in expecting to be a mid-zone running team -- which they were -- but wound up being widely successful as a gap running team down the stretch.
So even if changes aren't planned, Grizzard has played a role in making adjustments on the fly, and that's a plus . . .
Getting More Explosive
Without giving too much away, Grizzard foresees the Buccaneers being able to do more in the downfield passing attack this year, as it gives them the ability to move the ball quickly. However, it will still vary week-to-week depending on the opponent.
"I do think moving forward that is something we're going to put an emphasis on," Grizzard said. "Not that we didn't do it last year, but I think we can put even more on trying to create more explosive plays."
Whatever the case, Footballguy Sigmund Bloom believes an already top-notch passing offense is getting healthier and has added a first-round pick who is ready to play right away.
"This should be one of the best three-to-five offenses in the league and will create only overachievers, barring injury," Bloom wrote in our Buccaneers Team Vibes.
Having a quarterback who's heading into Year 3 of a remarkable rise helps . . .
Baker's Roll
Over the last two seasons in Tampa Bay, Mayfield has become the player the Browns hoped for when they took him No. 1 overall in the 2018 draft -- yes, ahead of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
His 106.8 passer rating was a Bucs franchise record. Tampa Bay was the only team to rank in the top five in both passing yards per game (250.4) and rushing yards per game (149.2). They also finished top five in total offense (399.6 YPG), scoring (29.5 PPG), third-down conversions (NFL-best 50.9 percent), and red-zone efficiency (66.7 percent).
Mayfield set career highs across the board: 4,500 passing yards, 41 touchdowns, and a 71.4 percent completion rate -- all top-three marks league-wide.
He finished fourth in fantasy points per game (21.6) in 2024, trailing only Jackson, Allen, and Joe Burrow.
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