Reading the Defense: Week 2

React Without Overreacting

Was Week 1 of 2025 the least surprising for fantasy football ever? The buzziest waiver wire addition is the TE2 on a team known for its 12-personnel offense. IDP gamers are sizing up the weekend's scoring leaders at defensive tackle and cornerback versus their fantasy draft choices.

This isn't to say that the fantasy community had its finger on the pulse of every position group in every NFL city. We gained clarity on the Jaguars' and Browns' backfields while finding concern for Ken Walker III, who missed much of August in Seattle with an injury. Uncertain linebacker rooms in Dallas and Philadelphia settled out in the weekend's first game, but no one particularly wants to roster Kenneth Murray Jr.. Both he and Eagles' rookie Jihaad Campbell may yet cede snaps to 2024 performers recovering from serious injuries later in this season.

Meanwhile, the top three linebackers on the Footballguys leaderboard were all early fantasy picks over the summer: Foyesade Oluokun, Bobby Okereke, and Ernest Jones IV. Other premium players like Nick Bosa, Myles Garrett, Kyle Hamilton, Kenny Moore II, Quinnen Williams, and Jeffery Simmons reside at or near the top of the standings at their respective positions.

Some Defenses Are Adapting

The biggest football surprise of the week was the efficacy of defenses and/or ineptitude of NFL offenses. By Sunday evening, the average combined game score trailed scoring in Week 1 of 2024 by fully 8 points per game. The thrilling prime-time games moderated the gap, as well as the topsy-turvy fantasy quarterback standings.

Justin Fields and Aaron Rodgers rank 3rd and 7th after a shootout no one saw coming. Fields and Garrett Wilson, reunited former Buckeyes, might have unlocked each other. West of the Meadowlands, Daniel Jones led the Colts to 4.71 points per drive, more than Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck ever accomplished.

Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Jim Harbaugh and Jeff George among Colts QBs that never accomplished this feat.

Daniel Jones accomplished it in his first Colts start. #ForTheShoe https://t.co/a5LiR0MCRo

— Shaun Elliott (@selliottWLWT) September 8, 2025

Coincidentally, the Steelers and Jets mirrored defensive tendencies, and so did the Colts and Dolphins. The Steelers' defense has utilized middle-of-the-field closed coverage structures and a high blitz rate for many years. New Jets defensive coordinator Steve Wilks did the same, showing one high safety on 64.7 percent of defensive snaps and blitzing more than a third of the time. Aaron Rodgers had answers.

The Steelers both blitzed and used MOFC coverages even more often. Justin Fields practiced against them all last year. Perhaps Week 2's date with the Bills will be more revealing of the former Chicago and Pittsburgh quarterback.

In Indianapolis on Sunday, the Colts and Dolphins showed middle-of-the-field structures (pre-snap looks with two high safeties) more than half the time, at rates among the top five in the NFL. Both teams blitzed more frequently than every other team. Both teams also played zone coverages at least two-thirds of the time, among the highest rates in Week 1.

Whereas the effects of defense were similar in the Meadowlands, they couldn't have been more different in Indianapolis. Bradley Chubb explained that the defense's failures hang on a lack of communication and players “making stuff up” as they go.

At OTAs in June, Miami's starting five in the defensive backfield appeared likely to include cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey, Kader Kohou, and Storm Duck and safeties Ifeatu Melifonwu and Ashtyn Davis. Ramsey was traded to Pittsburgh for safety Minkah Fitzpatrick on June 30. Melifonwu was placed on the non-football injury list on July 22 and returned just in time for the opener. Cornerback Jack Jones was signed on July 26. Rasul Douglas joined the team on August 27. Kohou was injured in August, and Duck got hurt early in Sunday's game. The defensive backs Miami had on the field didn't know the defense well enough to play.

Defensive Strategy Ever Evolves.