No position is more unpredictable in fantasy football than kickers. Year after year after year, no position has a lower correlation between where they're drafted before the season and where they finish after the season. No position has a lower correlation between how they score in one week and how they score in the next. No position has a lower correlation between projected points and actual points.
In addition, placekicker is the position that has the smallest spread between the best players and the middle-of-the-pack players for fantasy. Finally, most fantasy GMs will only carry one kicker at a time, which means a dozen or more starting kickers are sitting around on waivers at any given time. Given all of this, it rarely makes sense to devote resources to the position. Instead, GMs are best served by rotating through whichever available kicker has the best weekly matchup.
Every week, I'll rank the situations each kicker finds himself in (ignoring the talent of the kicker himself) to help you find perfectly startable production off the waiver wire.
Week 1 Kicker Results
Every week, we highlight the Top 5 recommendations from our model who are available on waivers in at least 50% of fantasy leagues (per NFL.com roster data). Here's how last week's top options fared.
Chad Ryland (2 FGs on 3 attempts, 2 XPs, 8 points)
Ryland had a good day and was a blocked field goal away from a great one. He connected from 42 and 50 yards, but a defender was able to jump the line of scrimmage untouched to block an attempt from 46. Ryland still tied for 11th among kickers.
Evan McPherson (1 FG on 1 attempts, 2 XPs, 5 points)
It wasn't a surprise to see the Bengals score two touchdowns on its three drives before halftime. It was much more surprising to see Cincinnati punt on five of six drives after the break. An offense headed by Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase isn't supposed to look this anemic; future weeks will show whether it was an aberration of the start of a trend. For now, McPherson's 5 points tied for 25th on the week.
Spencer Shrader (4 FGs on 4 Attempts, 3 XPs, 15 points)
I will go out on a limb a little bit and predict that the Colts will not score on every single drive this season. But they did on Sunday, and Shrader's 15 points led all kickers as a result.
Matt Gay (0 FGs on 0 attempts, 3 XPs, 3 points)
Gay gave us our first "all touchdowns" game of the season (though it certainly won't be the last). With just three points, Gay finished the week as the 30th-best kicker for fantasy.
Cam Little (4 FGs on 4 attempts, 2 XPs, 14 points)
Little kicked a field goal on Jacksonville's first drive, another on its last drive, and two more in between. Add a pair of extra points, and he finished as the #2 kicker in fantasy.
Kicker Results To Date
To date, Rent-a-Kicker has made five weekly recommendations. Those five kickers have averaged 9.00 points. Our top three picks averaged 9.33 points-- compared to a long-run average of 7.67. That would currently rank 7th at the position, but rankings aren't too meaningful on such small samples. (Last year, 9.33 points would have led all kickers.) We'll continue to track averages and ranks over time, and in a few weeks, we'll begin comparing to the Top 12 kickers by preseason ADP.
Week 2 Kicker Situations
**Here is a list of the teams with the best matchups based on Vegas projected totals and stadium, along with the expected kicker for each team. The top five players who are on waivers in over 50% of leagues based on NFL.com roster percentages are italicized and will be highlighted in next week's column. The top three players will be included in our running average. Also, note that these rankings specifically apply to situations; teams will occasionally change kickers mid-week, but any endorsements apply equally to whatever kicker winds up eventually getting the start.**