Top 5 Rushing Matchups
Jacksonville vs Carolina
Jacksonville's rushing offense is a bit of a mystery heading into 2025. Last year, neither Travis Etienne Jr. nor Tank Bigsby was able to separate themselves from each other, and now this offseason, the team has added Bhayshul Tuten in the fourth round. The Jaguars did not clear up any mystery in their depth chart release, as it stated that it would be Travis Etienne Jr. or Tank Bigsby, likely indicating that we will see the same shared backfield that we saw last year. Of the two, Etienne is the more exciting running back as he will ultimately see more of the field due to Bigsby's lack of pass-catching ability, as Bigsby caught just seven passes to Etienne's 39 last season. This will likely be a fluid, hot-hand type scenario to see if one of these players can outperform the other to the point of getting 70-80% of the carries instead of the 50/50 that they're currently at.
Carolina’s run defense was by far the worst defense against the run. While they’ve tried to revamp this defense by bringing in defensive tackle Tershawn Wharton on a three-year $54 million deal, it is noted that Wharton was not the Panthers' top choice as they prioritized trying to get Milton Williams, who ultimately went to the Patriots. Wharton should provide a significant upgrade, along with 2023 Pro Bowler Derrick Brown, who was injured for the vast majority of the 2024 season. However, the problems with Carolina are largely at linebacker as the team surprisingly released Josey Jewell this offseason after he’s been unable to recover from a concussion suffered last season. This will force the Panthers to go into the season relying on Christian Rozeboom, whom the team signed to just a one-year $2.5 million deal this offseason, mostly bringing him in as an experienced depth piece. Alongside Rozeboom will be Trevin Wallace, a 2024 third-round pick who struggled with significant playing time last year. This defense allowed 30.2 fantasy points per game, the most in the NFL last season, with the second-most at 26.8. While there should be some improvement, defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero’s defense will continue to prioritize shutting down the pass each week.
Carolina at Jacksonville
Carolina's backfield had hoped to be a duo of Chuba Hubbard and Jonathon Brooks, but the second-year Brooks was ruled out for the season after suffering an ACL injury in Week 12 of last season. This firmly places Hubbard once again in the lead role for the Panthers, with only Rico Dowdle behind him. Hubbard had a breakout season in 2024, averaging 4.8 yards per carry, totaling 1,195 yards. The offensive line in Carolina is returning their entire starting five, which should provide upside heading into 2025, given the cohesion that they have. They're currently ranked 11th by Footballguys expert Matt Bitonti, but if center Austin Corbett can rebound from a down season in 2024, this could be a unit that jumps closer to the top 5 range.
Jacksonville was among the league’s worst run defenses last season, and it did nothing to improve the unit this offseason. Last season, Jacksonville allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including allowing 90 rushing yards or more to four of their final six opponents. This defensive line is built to rush the passer, led by Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen. This puts a significant amount of pressure on Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd, who both have massive tackle numbers. There are significant questions about safety for the Jaguars as they brought in converted cornerback Eric Murray to start alongside Andrew Wingard, who missed a majority of the 2024 season with a knee injury, which caused him to only see significant playing time in three games for the Jaguars at the end of the season, which is when their run defense was at its worst.
Minnesota at Chicago