Top 5 Rushing Matchups
Baltimore vs Cincinnati
Baltimore hasn't looked great over the last two weeks, but they've found ways to win against Cleveland and the Jets. Last week, Derrick Henry had 21 carries for 64 yards, but found the end zone twice as the Ravens only had 241 yards of total offense. The offense has just seemed out of rhythm since Lamar Jackson's return, as he does not appear healthy. He's run for just 10.5 yards per game over the last two games, and with that dynamic threat gone, he's not throwing enough to challenge opposing defenses, averaging just 175 passing yards per game over the last five games. This should only help the rushing attack, even if defenses focus more on stopping it, as Cincinnati did last week. While that may limit Henry's yards-per-carry numbers, his volume should more than make up for it, as they need him to keep defenses honest and open up passing lanes if Jackson is a statue quarterback. Henry is averaging 20.5 carries over the last six games. The Ravens will be without Justice Hill this week, so it should further consolidate carries in this offense.
While Cincinnati's defense statistically looks like it is improving, much of that has been due to favorable scheduling over the last two weeks, as they've faced New England and Pittsburgh. Last week, they held TreVeyon Henderson to 66 yards on 18 carries, and while Jaylen Warren had just 62 yards in Week 11, it was on just 10 carries as he left with an injury. This continues to be a defense that is just talent-deficient. Cincinnati has allowed the most points per game (33), the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, and the most rushing yards to the position. Trey Hendrickson remains out with a hip injury, and at this point, we'll see if/when he returns this season, but it won't be this week. Rookie linebackers Barrett Carter and Demetrius Knight Jr. continue to be two of the worst linebackers in the NFL. Along the defensive line, this is a team that just lacks talent. 2023 first-round pick Myles Murphy has been thrust into a starter job based on the Trey Hendrickson injury, but Murphy has not been able to live up to his first-round selection. Defensive tackle T.J. Slaton Jr. was thought to be a run-stuffer at 6'5", 330 pounds, but he has played significantly smaller than that size, as smaller offensive linemen are pushing him around.
New England vs NY Giants
While Rhamondre Stevenson returned, it was TreVeyon Henderson's backfield last week. Henderson had 65% of the snaps against Cincinnati last week, and while he was unable to break a long run, he had 18 carries for 65 yards. The Patriots are clearly over whatever was holding Henderson back from getting more touches early in this season. Meanwhile, Rhamondre Stevenson had just six carries for five yards against the league's worst defense in Cincinnati. New England realizes they ultimately need to find some playmakers if they want to make a deep playoff run, as while Drake Maye has been great, there's no one on this offense you truly need to game-plan around. A big issue for New England is its offensive line. Over the last two weeks, they've lost both left tackle Will Campbell, who was placed on IR with a knee injury, and left guard Jared Wilson, who is doubtful this week with a high-ankle sprain and is considered week-to-week. Left tackle Vederian Lowe has struggled in limited playing time with his run-blocking, while left guard Ben Brown is in his third season and is just inexperienced after being an undrafted free agent out of Ole Miss.
After last week's performance, the Giants have fired defensive coordinator Shane Bowen. The Giants have now fired both their head coach and defensive coordinator. Charlie Bullen will be the interim defensive coordinator. This is a guy who, based on his resume, looks way over his head. He was an assistant linebacker coach for nearly a decade and has been an outside linebackers coach since 2020. To think that an outside linebackers coach has zero play-calling experience. This defense has been exposed by big plays. Last week, Jahmyr Gibbs had 219 yards on 15 carries for two touchdowns and added 11 receptions for 45 yards and a touchdown. Since Week 8, the Giants have allowed four 100-yard runners, averaging 170 yards per game in those five outings. We've talked about it for a while, but this team already had massive linebacker issues and has now suffered significant injuries. Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles was forced into playing time, but he has been a special-teams guy his entire career. The Giants tried paying 2023 sixth-round pick Zaire Barnes last week, and that was an absolute disaster. This is a player who, in his third season, had never played a snap despite all the defensive challenges for the Giants over the last couple of years. This is a defense that was designed to rush the passer along the defensive line. Outside of Dexter Lawrence II, they are undersized with Brian Burns and Abdul Carter. This has forced the Giants to play 2025 3rd-round pick Darius Alexander, but he has not looked like he can stop the run in his rookie season.
LA Rams at Carolina