Top 5 Passing Matchups
Kansas City at Dallas
Patrick Mahomes II and the Chiefs enter Thanksgiving week looking more and more like the version of themselves we saw across their championship runs. After a rocky September that featured timing issues, miscommunications, and a revolving door at their number two wide receiver position, Mahomes has averaged 289 yards and 15 touchdowns over his last eight games. Even with a supporting cast that remains short on top-tier separators, Mahomes elevates the group into a high-functioning, high-floor passing operation capable of succeeding in virtually any environment. Rashee Rice has re-established himself as the primary target, accounting for 26 percent of total targets since his return. Last week, he demonstrated his potential by recording eight receptions for 141 yards, showcasing his proficiency in yards after catch and his accurate route timing. Travis Kelce no longer monopolizes usage the way he once did, but he remains one of the smartest space manipulators in football, and his chemistry with Mahomes always presents matchup problems for shallow and intermediate defenders. Against the Cowboys' thin coverage unit, Mahomes should again have his way.
Dallas has made incremental progress on defense across the 2025 season, but improvement from disastrous to merely below average still leaves them as one of the league's softest matchups for competent passing games. Six of their eleven opponents have crossed 260 yards against them. Five have thrown three or more touchdowns. The pass rush has actually held up surprisingly well despite the long-term absences of Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, but the real concern lies behind them. Without Trevon Diggs, the Cowboys have resorted to mixing backup-level corners around Daron Bland, who has been inconsistent in both man and zone. Former first-rounder Kaiir Elam has already been benched for poor play, while his replacements have allowed explosive plays down the seams and across the intermediate middle. Communication has been spotty, and opponents consistently find crossers and deep over routes wide open. Unless the pass rush can unsettle Mahomes early, there is no realistic plan to keep Kansas City's route concepts contained. Mahomes' ability to manipulate safeties and freeze linebackers with eye discipline should afford Rice, Kelce, and even secondary targets enough space to produce one of the Chiefs' biggest statistical outputs of the year.
Baltimore vs Cincinnati
Lamar Jackson's season has been defined by flashes of explosiveness countered by stretches of visible injuries and limited downfield aggression. The Ravens remain in search of the player who dominated early 2023 with effortless outside-the-pocket creation and consistent intermediate lane precision. Even so, when the Ravens draw a matchup as soft as Cincinnati's, the offense rarely struggles for long. Jackson continues to play through lingering injuries, and the absence of a true vertical playmaker has prevented Baltimore from unlocking the deep sideline throws that once defined their offensive identity. Yet the structure of the Ravens' passing game still funnels high-value usage to Zay Flowers, who owns a 26 percent target share and remains due for positive touchdown regression after being tackled inside the 10 multiple times on long receptions. Flowers' versatility, which includes quick screens, jet motion, intermediate digs, and scramble drill routes, makes him a volume magnet in matchups where Jackson has ample time to operate. And he almost certainly will here.
No defense in football has been more reliably overmatched in 2025 than the Bengals as they're allowing nearly 33 points per game. They have managed to make struggling or unrefined passers look serviceable while allowing average ones to erupt for season-high outputs. Mason Rudolph, Justin Fields, and Drake Maye all posted productive lines against Cincinnati, with Maye in particular amassing 294 yards despite uneven protection and off-target misfires. Communication breakdowns remain a weekly issue, especially in red zone situations and third and medium scenarios, where soft zones leave hook and seam windows uncontested. Dax Hill has been one of the league's most frequently targeted and beaten corners. The safety group has provided little help on top. Without Trey Hendrickson, the Bengals rank 29th in pressure rate and 31st in sacks, which is a damaging combination when paired with a secondary that lacks speed, discipline, and cohesion. Jackson should enjoy clean pockets with ample space to create on extended plays, and Flowers, Mark Andrews, and the auxiliary targets should settle comfortably into vacated zones. Baltimore sets up as one of the safest and highest ceiling passing environments of the week.
Denver at Washington
