Let's have some fun and try to win a few dollars this season. Here's how this article will work: each week, I'll share my favorite player props, put my own real money behind them, post a screenshot of the bets, and explain why I like each pick. Sometimes the reasoning will come from deep statistical analysis, and other times it'll just be a gut call. For every pick, I'll walk you through my thought process. If it makes sense to you, feel free to tail me.
The goal is simple: end the week with more money in my Underdog account than I started with. At the same time, this is meant to be recreational, geared toward anyone who wants to add a little excitement to the games with a small bet. Most of the picks will lean toward overs, because overs are more fun to root for.
How It Works
Underdog Pick'em is a fun twist on daily fantasy games where you predict whether a player will go higher or lower than their projected stats across categories like touchdowns, yards, or fantasy points. To play, simply pick at least two props from two different teams. You can choose player stats like touchdowns, rushing yards, or even fantasy points and predict whether they will go higher or lower than the projected numbers.
Tracking Last Week
I will track every Pick Em I make this season and start each week's article with a quick review of what went wrong and what went right the previous week.
- Last Week (2-3), - $40
- Season (32-26), - $114
TreVeyon Henderson (14.5) hit the over on his receiving yardage prop, but Ashton Jeanty and RJ Harvey both came up short on their rushing props.
Devin Neal (35.5) went over his rushing prop, but Justin Jefferson did not hit the over on his receiving yardage prop. It was a good reminder that things can always get worse, even quarterback play, when the baseline was J.J. McCarthy.
Underdog Pick Em Prop 1
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Brown has rushed for at least 5.2 yards per carry in five of his last six games. Over that span, he is averaging 83.7 yards on 14.3 carries per game, an efficient 5.8 yards per attempt.
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He has logged three straight games with 15 or more carries. Every running back who has reached 15+ carries against Buffalo this season has finished with at least 74 rushing yards.
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While the Bengals allow the most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, Buffalo is not far behind. The Bills give up 113.3 rushing yards per game to running backs, the third-most in the league.
Don't let Samaje Perine's role scare you away from Chase Brown this week. pic.twitter.com/0nksL3CDkJ
— Colton Dodgson (@FFCDod) December 5, 2025
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Cook has run for 108 or more yards in 7 of 12 games this season. He has topped 100 yards in six of the eight games where the Bills scored more than 20 points. With Buffalo carrying a 29.5-point team total as 5.5-point home favorites, the game environment is ideal.
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He is coming off a career-high 32 carries for 144 yards in a dominant performance against a strong Steelers run defense that had consistently held opposing backs below their rushing averages.
James Cook brought the juice in Week 13 🧃 pic.twitter.com/KXvTn00IFU
— NFL (@NFL) December 1, 2025
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The matchup this week is even better. The Bengals allow more rushing yards per game to opposing running backs (128.2) than any team in the NFL.
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Cincinnati's defense features three players who rank in the top four in missed tackles leaguewide, a dangerous combination when facing one of the most elusive runners in football.
The Bengals have allowed their opposing RB1 to rush for 100 yds per game with 6.0 yards/carry over the past 10 weeks.
— Put Steve Tasker in the Hall of Fame (@HOFSteveTasker) December 5, 2025
The Bills are 14-2 when James Cook has 18 or more rushes over the past 3 seasons.
Not feeding Cook early and often Sunday would be irresponsible.#BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/eM4XUjad2b