We are proud to be among the first, if not the first, to publish full projections for the upcoming season, going live just days after the Super Bowl. Publishing detailed projections in early February comes with trade-offs, not the least of which is a near-total lack of clarity on how free agency, cap transactions, and the NFL draft will reshape rosters.
We've been updating our projections in near real time, including during the recent onslaught of free-agent transactions. This version will remain largely stable until we can layer in the April NFL draft, but stable projections don't mean settled debates.
We have a staff of sharp analysts with sharp takes of their own, so I thought it would be worthwhile to solicit their views on the key coin-toss situations that will shape each team's outlook in the coming months. These are important questions where reasonable, informed people can credibly land in very different places. I asked my colleagues to weigh in with one assumption: they were answering strictly through the lens of a standard 0.5-PPR redraft league.
New York Jets Coin-Toss Questions:
- How much improvement do you expect under Frank Reich?
- Is there any reason to think Geno Smith can be relevant?
- Would a rookie RB change your outlook on Breece Hall?
- Does Mason Taylor warrant a spot in 12-team redraft leagues?
- Is the Jets WR2 currently on the roster?
Q: The offense finished 29th in points scored last season. How much improvement do you expect in 2026 under Frank Reich's watch?
Meng Song: Not much. Geno Smith had his brief resurgence in Seattle, followed by a fall into mediocrity. The Jets trading for him is a baffling move, as they continue to be a mess of an organization.
Maurile Tremblay: Finishing 29th in points scored is ugly, but context matters. The 2025 Jets were a complete organizational disaster: 3-14, a revolving-door at quarterback with Justin Fields repeatedly benched, and a coaching staff largely gutted at season's end. The offensive coordinator (Tanner Engstrand) was let go, and the position coaching staff was overhauled. Reich represents a significant upgrade as a play-caller. He coordinated the Eagles' Super Bowl offense in 2017 and ran competitive offenses in Indianapolis. He's installing a wide zone run scheme and a more creative passing offense. With the additions of Seth Ryan as pass game coordinator and Bill Musgrave as quarterbacks coach, the Jets will have a dramatically more competent offensive brain trust than what was in place last year. I'd expect meaningful improvement, probably into the low-to-mid 20s in scoring rank, with upside into the teens if the offensive line gels. The floor is considerably higher than last year's debacle simply because the coaching is so much better.
Jeff Haseley: Expect a noticeable jump. Moving from 29th to somewhere in the 15-18 range is a realistic goal, especially with all of the draft capital the Jets have accrued. Reich typically brings structure and a better plan for his quarterbacks, which this unit desperately needs.
VERDICT: The Jets will remain a bottom-5 offense.
I’m surprised by the optimism some of my colleagues have. Frank Reich is an uninspired hire who lost his fastball years ago. His last year in Indianapolis saw the Colts finish 30th in points. His following year in Carolina, they finished 31st. And then he went to Stanford and failed miserably. He is the Jets' play-caller only because no credible, innovative young mind would take the job. Furthermore, the Geno Smith acquisition is—as Meng noted—baffling.
Q: 35-year-old Geno Smith has had just one (2022) fantasy-worthy season in his career. Is there any reason to think he can be relevant this year?
Meng Song: No.
Maurile Tremblay: There's actually a reasonable case for Smith as a late-round QB2 or streaming option. His 2022 Comeback Player of the Year season (4,282 yards, 30 TDs, 11 INTs) wasn't a total fluke. He followed it with three more consecutive 4,000-yard seasons in Seattle. His 2025 collapse in Las Vegas (19 TDs, 17 INTs) happened on a Raiders team with decimated weapons around him. The situation in New York should be better. Reich is a quarterback-friendly play-caller who has historically elevated competent veterans. (Look what he did with Philip Rivers.) Garrett Wilson is a legit number-one receiver, and the offensive line is being rebuilt. Smith has never been a rushing contributor, so his fantasy upside is almost entirely tied to passing volume and efficiency. In a new system at 35 years old, a complete collapse is possible. But if the Reich offense clicks in the first few weeks, Smith has some upside in Superflex formats.
Jeff Haseley: There's a path to relevance. He's back where it started, and while he's 35, he's shown he can navigate a professional offense. In Reich's system, he's a viable late-round flyer or QB2.
VERDICT: Smith will be irrelevant outside of being a potential bye week fill-in.
Again, I’m somewhat shocked by my peers' optimism, except for Meng’s terse, negative take. Smith has one top-12 fantasy season (2022) in his 13-year career. Just one. That performance occurred on a Seattle team with significantly better coaching and personnel. I currently project Smith as QB29; therefore, even if I am being overly pessimistic and he outperforms my model, he will still fall well short of where he needs to be for a 12-team redraft league.
