De'Von Achane: The Easiest Overrated Call This Preseason
The Footballguys consensus ranking for De'Von Achane was RB7. After two weeks, Achane is RB21.
I just looked it up to write where I ranked Achane: RB21. It's too early to claim this will remain accurate for the rest of the season, but I'm giving you film analysis today that's banking on it.
Before we look at the film, here was my preseason commentary on Achane from my "Just, Don't" feature almost a month ago.
"Sometimes the fundamental point isn't how good a player is, but whether the system and surrounding talent can provide enough support. Barry Sanders is one of the few exceptions who could overcome lackluster offenses -- and he often had good talent around him. When Sanders played at least 15 games in a season, which he did all but once in 10 years, Sanders delivered at least 1,700 yards from scrimmage.
Achane is just entering the fourth season of his career and hasn't proven enough to earn a comparison to an all-timer, or the equity to draft him as a first-round talent. Achane may have earned 1,700 yards from scrimmage last year on a bad offense, but the system was still steeped in a diverse ground game that was the strength of the scheme.
Mike McDaniel may not have had a good quarterback to build his offense around, but his blocking schemes have always been brilliant and diverse. Achane benefited greatly from McDaniel's craft.
Miami's passing game won't be as good as the failing attack from 2025. This will allow opposing defenses to play the run with greater aggression against a scheme that will lack the diversity and craft with its run blocking.
Malik Willis' legs may open some creases for Achane that lead to big plays, and we may see Achane earn 1100-1300 yards on the ground thanks to big plays and consistent volume. We won't see the past volume and production as a receiver.
Miami will base much of its passing game on moving Willis outside the pocket with play action to Achane. This will render Achane a decoy more often than not.
Sure, expect the occasional throwback for a big play that might account for 50-150 yards to his receiving totals for the entire year. Beyond that? Willis will run more, read fewer progressions per play, and check down less.
If Achane earns more than 55 targets, I'll be shocked. I'm expecting half of Achane's receiving production from his two-year average.
Achane is a fine back, but the McDaniel scheme elevated the ground game as much as it elevated Achane, and the declining efficiencies will make Achane an overpriced option relative to his peers.
De'Von Achane's Stats and Projected Production
This is my optimistic statistical outlook for Achane based on his two-game stint.
De'Von Achane's Production Outlook
| Statistic | Now | Extrapolated | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ratt | 31 | 263.5 | 250 |
| Ryds | 110 | 935 | 900 |
| RTDs | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Rec | 7 | 59.5 | 60 |
| RecYds | 49 | 416.5 | 510 |
| Rec TDs | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Fpts/Gm | 11.4 | 11.4 | 13.2 |
Last year, an average fantasy points per game total of 13.2 would have tied Achane at RB20 with Breece Hall. Achane was averaging 20.2 fantasy points per game in 2025.
One difference will be red-zone opportunities. There will be more three-and-outs with this offense than last year. I've cut Achane's projected touchdown totals in half (6) from his 2025 performance (12).
Achane averaged 5.7 yards per carry and earned 1350 yards on 238 attempts. I'm expecting far less efficiency as a runner because the scheme is new, Willis is new, and Willis is not an efficient field general.
My projected receiving totals after two weeks is an indication I believe I'll be wrong about my preseason estimation that Achane wouldn't earn 50 targets. Based on what you will see in this article, I'm pessimistic.
Achane's receiving workload will not compensate for his lack of ground game production for a projected fantasy RB1. I'm about to show you why and contrast his usage on passing downs to his preseason peer, Jahmyr Gibbs.