I'm not a big fan of telling you who not to draft. There are thousands of ways to build a winner through the draft.
Still, there are riskier paths, and I am here to offer advice to help you avoid unnecessary risks. Here are my choices for PPR leagues. You can see additional commentary on these players in my Footballguys.com rankings.
Just Don't, Rounds 1-4
RB De'Von Achane, Miami
Sometimes the fundamental point isn't how good a player is, but whether the system and surrounding talent can provide enough support. Barry Sanders is one of the few exceptions who could overcome lackluster offenses -- and he often had good talent around him. When Sanders played at least 15 games in a season, which he did all but once in 10 years, Sanders delivered at least 1,700 yards from scrimmage.
Achane is just entering the fourth season of his career and hasn't proven enough to earn a comparison to an all-timer, or the equity to draft him as a first-round talent. Achane may have earned 1,700 yards from scrimmage last year on a bad offense, but the system was still steeped in a diverse ground game that was the strength of the scheme.
Mike McDaniel may not have had a good quarterback to build his offense around, but his blocking schemes have always been brilliant and diverse. Achane benefitted greatly from McDaniel's craft.
Miami's passing game won't be as good as the failing attack from 2025. This will allow opposing defenses to play the run with greater aggression against a scheme that will lack the diversity and craft with its run blocking.
Malik Willis' legs may open some creases for Achane that lead to big plays, and we may see Achane earn 1100-1300 yards on the ground thanks to big plays and consistent volume. We won't see the past volume and production as a receiver.
Miami will base much of its passing game on moving Willis outside the pocket with play action to Achane. This will render Achane a decoy more often than not.
Sure, expect the occasional throwback for a big play that might account for 50-150 yards to his receiving totals for the entire year. Beyond that? Willis will run more, read fewer progressions per play, and check down less.
If Achane earns more than 55 targets, I'll be shocked. I'm expecting half of Achane's receiving production from his two-year average.
Achane is a fine back, but the McDaniel scheme elevated the ground game as much as Achane, and the declining efficiencies will make Achane an overpriced option relative to his peers.
WR Drake London, Atlanta
Tua Tagovailoa has a suspect arm, suspect durability, and suspect pocket play at this stage of his career. London did his best work two years ago as a big-slot. Kevin Stefanski will use more sets with two and three tight ends.
Add this up, and whether it's Tagovailoa or Michael Penix Jr., the change in alignments will place London outside more often. While London can win contested catches with his size, this isn't the Dez Bryant era of offense.
The best primary receivers run a diverse route tree at the highest level and have hyper-accurate passers. London has neither in his quiver to the degree that makes him worth his current value. There are much safer, higher-upside options at his position and at running back at the same price or later.
RB Ken Walker III, Kansas City
I love his skills. He's creative, agile, and the best perimeter runner in the game as a decision-maker. He had his first full season without missing time to injury in four years.
Even so, Walker split time for much of the year and still finished as a mid-range fantasy RB2. It may not be the same talent, but there's enough talent in the Chiefs' backfield to keep Walker as a mid-to-low RB2, and there's enough history with injury to believe his RB1 price tag is out of whack with reality.
I hope I'm wrong, but Walker already has a swollen ankle. It's not serious, but with Walker, it never really is until he's not playing.
You really want to take him in the same range as Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown? Or you could take Brock Bowers and get a commensurate RB talent later who isn't as flashy, but usually stays healthy and might not have the committee downside Walker will have in this system.
RB Jeremiyah Love, Arizona
The Cardinals defense isn't going to stop the Rams, Seahawks, or a semi-healthy 49ers offense. We'll see a lot of passing scripts, and the Cardinals' receiving corps is good enough that Love won't be one of the top two passing-down options. He'll be splitting time with Tyler Allegier, who is a solid between-the-tackles thumper and screen option.
Once again, we're looking at Love's talent and overprojecting his value in a system, and that won't complement his ceiling this year. There's also the ankle injury that will likely bug him early on and possibly get aggravated enough to limit him all year.
Don't try to be the genius of your draft with this type of pick. Select players with good track records and better offenses early and take your chances with unproven talents or high-risk players later.
RB Omarion Hampton, LA Chargers
Mike McDaniel announced the Chargers will have a three-headed committee backfield that rides the hot hands. Fantasy GMs retorted that it didn't mean anything because...De'Von Achane.
Short memories. Bad context. Two things that get fantasy GMS dressing up in ridiculous outfits and performing wild dares because their teams stink. Last year, no one was betting on any of those Dolphins RB "talents" (and I say that generously) to eat into Achane's time.
Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. aged out in 2024 due to injury, not Achane outperforming them for playing time. In 2023, Mostert delivered 18 touchdowns and out-touched Achane 2-to-1.
Hampton's backfield cohorts aren't old, and they offer more than Hampton in specific ways. Kimani Vidal is a better zone runner with quicker feet and agility to create when the first crease gets filled, which is what you want from a wide zone runner.
Keaton Mitchell is explosive not only when he reaches the secondary, but also in tight spaces. This makes Mitchell a compelling perimeter runner as well as a capable inside runner with a selective workload.
Hampton is a downhill banger who can beat a secondary if he earns a strong runway. That's more likely to happen inside than with perimeter designs.
Mike McDaniel will use a committee backfield because he knows the runner with the best draft capital is an incomplete talent. Hampton does 2-3 things at a high level, but that's it.
The loss of center Tyler Biadasz also hurts the interior ground game. It's just another layer of why Hampton isn't worth a pick inside the fourth round, but that's where the demand is.
WR Malik Nabers, NY Giants
Folks lose the narrative with Malik Nabers' rehab. It's not whether he can run fast or make cuts right now.
It's whether he can do these two things after 6-8 weeks of sustained pounding and violence. Have the injured areas regained enough vitality to regenerate fast enough each week?
Most athletes, even younger ones, don't regain that vitality so soon. It takes a lot for a body to initially heal from the original trauma. It takes longer for the body to regenerate and re-energize that once-traumatized part.
I'm hoping Nabers is the exception, but training-camp clips of him running routes aren't the proof you're seeking. It makes drafting him at the top of the third round an incredible risk when Garrett Wilson, Nico Collins, Davante Adams, Jaylen Waddle, and De'Vonta Smith will likely be better.
RB Travis Etienne Jr., New Orleans
In New Orleans, we're looking at a new system, questions about the offensive line, a second-year quarterback about to face defenses that prepared specifically for him during the offseason, and a new running back with a history of questionable decisions until he has gained comfort with the offense.
Maybe Etienne has matured enough as a decision-maker that, like D'Andre Swift, we don't have to worry as much about him here. Still, a fourth-round price tag when you could have Swift behind a better line, a better offense, and more proven talent? Quinshon Judkins is also a strong alternative.
I'll take DJ Moore or Luther Burden III if need be. Jaylen Waddle sometimes even falls this far.
