Targets and goal-line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production at running back. A starting role and a high-volume carry total are nice, but when those touches happen away from the end zone, they become empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and a high-volume back generally points to more targets and goal-line chances, which can lead to high-scoring fantasy plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.
Note: See the table of all teams' HLO rankings at the bottom of this article.
The Good
Lions
The upside of the Lions situation cannot be understated. Yes, Jahmyr Gibbs is an elite talent, but he is also in an elite HLO offense. Detroit already has weekly finishes of No.1, No.2, No.3, and No.6 under their collective belts. In addition, they have actually overperformed in those high-leverage situations. Gibbs is the easy-button answer and on a pathway towards RB1 overall this season, but remember Sione Vaki, who has been the unquestioned RB2 through five weeks with quality athleticism and prototypical size. Even with a decline in HLO, expect Detroit to be a league-winning environment for Vaki to change the course of fantasy seasons with a collection of clarified starts.
Bears
Back-to-back No.1 weekly finishes without Caleb Williams have been a fantasy boost for the backfield in Chicago. D'Andre Swift was on his way to an elite fantasy outcome in Week 5, but Roschon Johnson largely played down the stretch in a blowout loss. The Bears are a regression candidate as they have underperformed HLO expectations by more than 10% in the opening weeks. Kyle Monangai was out in Week 5, making Roschon Johnson a key stash on one of the best rushing offenses in the NFL in the meantime.
Packers
Green Bay has been on the upward swing in season-long HLO after an abysmal opening two weeks. Week 5 was their most encouraging offensive line play and rushing attack of the season. Also, they have posted three straight weeks of top-half HLO and are firmly in the top 20 this season. The backfield is still split three ways, with Pierre Strong Jr. now in the Chris Brooks role (with Brooks on IR), siphoning away MarShawn Lloyd upside. Further consolidation of the lead role is needed, but Green Bay's positive trajectory (plus the Dallas matchup in Week 6 specifically) is encouraging.