Is Trevor Lawrence Finally Elite?

The Footballguys staff discusses whether Trevor Lawrence's growth under Liam Coen is set to continue.

Jason Wood's Is Trevor Lawrence Finally Elite? Jason Wood Published 04/20/2026

© Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images Trevor Lawrence Jacksonville Jaguars

We are proud to be among the first, if not the first, to publish full projections for the upcoming season, going live just days after the Super Bowl. Publishing detailed projections in early February comes with trade-offs, not the least of which is a near-total lack of clarity on how free agency, cap transactions, and the NFL draft will reshape rosters.

We've been updating our projections in near real time, including during the recent onslaught of free-agent transactions. This version will remain largely stable until we can layer in the April NFL draft, but stable projections don't mean settled debates.

We have a staff of sharp analysts with sharp takes of their own, so I thought it would be worthwhile to solicit their views on the key coin-toss situations that will shape each team's outlook in the coming months. These are important questions where reasonable, informed people can credibly land in very different places. I asked my colleagues to weigh in with one assumption: they were answering strictly through the lens of a standard 0.5-PPR redraft league.

Jacksonville Jaguars Coin-Toss Questions


Trevor Lawrence was the No. 1 fantasy quarterback from Week 6 onward, but that also came with an uncharacteristic seven rushing touchdowns. Do you believe Lawrence has finally broken into the genuine elite at the position thanks to Liam Coen, or are we being fooled by positive touchdown variance?

Maurile Tremblay: I'd say more real than fake. Lawrence made a genuine leap under Liam Coen. His mechanics were cleaned up, the offense gave him faster built-in answers, and after the Week 9 reset, he played like a different quarterback. Over the final eight games, he led the league in passing yards, ranked second in passing touchdowns, cut down the mistakes, and Jacksonville averaged 33.6 points per game. That said, the fantasy QB1 stretch probably overstates it a bit, because the rushing touchdown rate won't be repeatable.

Andy Hicks: Momentum is a powerful thing, and Lawrence ended the season looking every bit like an elite quarterback — and I'll admit I haven't always been high on him. With more than five years in the league and such inconsistent form over that span, some caution heading into 2026 is reasonable. A sustained breakout at this stage would run counter to most models of when elite quarterbacks typically establish themselves. I'd prefer to see a larger, more consistent sample before fully buying in — though his trajectory is worth monitoring closely.

Jeff Haseley: Trevor Lawrence has officially joined the elite. Liam Coen's offense finally tapped into his rushing floor, and while seven touchdowns might see some regression, the volume and trust are there. He's a Top 6 QB for me if he maintains a strong rushing profile.

Jason Wood's Verdict

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