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Can Lightning Strike Thrice?
David Montgomery has built a fascinating and highly successful career. He has been the focal point of his team’s offense from the moment he entered the league, racking up 8,005 yards and 63 touchdowns over seven seasons. Now entering his age-29 season, he faces an entirely new challenge and opportunity after being traded from the Detroit Lions to the AFC South powerhouse Houston Texans.
When the trade initially went down, it was unclear if Montgomery would land in a multi-back committee. However, as the offseason unfolded, including a benign April draft, the organization's intent became crystal clear: the Texans expect Montgomery to be their new bellcow.
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How should we handicap his new environment? On one hand, Montgomery is moving from Detroit's elite unit to a projected bottom-tier offensive line that has struggled mightily at the goal line under head coach DeMeco Ryans. On the other hand, a subpar line didn’t stop veteran Joe Mixon from finishing as the fantasy RB17 in 2024 with 1,425 yards and 12 touchdowns.
The underlying metrics reveal a frustrating historical bottleneck, a glaring situational step-down, and a surprisingly attainable baseline.
RB22: What Does That Baseline Actually Look Like?
Sometimes we throw out positional rankings without anchoring them to context. Saying a player is a WR17, QB9, or TE8 doesn't mean much if we don't explicitly understand the production that tier typically delivers.
I am currently projecting Montgomery as the RB22 in 0.5 PPR scoring. To decide if that is an achievable bar, let’s look at the players who finished exactly at that spot over the last five seasons:
Historical RB22 Performance (0.5 PPR)
| Year | Name | Team | Age | Exp | G | Rsh | RshYd | Y/Rsh | RshTD | Rec | RecYd | RecTD | FP/G | FantPt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Darrel Williams | KC | 26 | 4 | 17 | 144 | 558 | 3.9 | 6 | 47 | 452 | 2 | 10.1 | 172.5 |
| 2022 | Devin Singletary | BUF | 25 | 4 | 17 | 178 | 822 | 4.6 | 5 | 38 | 280 | 1 | 9.7 | 165.2 |
| 2023 | Brian Robinson Jr | WAS | 24 | 2 | 15 | 178 | 733 | 4.1 | 5 | 36 | 367 | 4 | 12.1 | 182.0 |
| 2024 | Tony Pollard | TEN | 27 | 6 | 16 | 260 | 1,079 | 4.2 | 5 | 41 | 238 | 0 | 11.4 | 182.2 |
| 2025 | Ken Walker III | SEA | 25 | 4 | 17 | 221 | 1,027 | 4.6 | 5 | 31 | 282 | 0 | 10.4 | 176.4 |
| Avg | 16 | 196 | 844 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 39 | 324 | 1.4 | 10.7 | 175.7 |
On average, RB22 delivers 1,168 total yards and 6.6 touchdowns. Now, let’s overlay Montgomery’s career output against that baseline:
David Montgomery Career Production
| Year | Team | Age | Exp | G | Rsh | RshYd | Y/Rsh | RshTD | Rec | RecYd | RecTD | FP/G | FantPt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | CHI | 22 | 1 | 16 | 242 | 889 | 3.7 | 6 | 25 | 185 | 1 | 10.1 | 161.9 |
| 2020 | CHI | 23 | 2 | 15 | 247 | 1,070 | 4.3 | 8 | 54 | 438 | 2 | 15.9 | 237.8 |
| 2021 | CHI | 24 | 3 | 13 | 225 | 849 | 3.8 | 7 | 42 | 301 | 0 | 13.7 | 178.0 |
| 2022 | CHI | 25 | 4 | 16 | 201 | 801 | 4.0 | 5 | 34 | 316 | 1 | 10.3 | 164.7 |
| 2023 | DET | 26 | 5 | 14 | 219 | 1,015 | 4.6 | 13 | 16 | 117 | 0 | 14.2 | 199.2 |
| 2024 | DET | 27 | 6 | 14 | 185 | 775 | 4.2 | 12 | 36 | 341 | 0 | 14.4 | 201.6 |
| 2025 | DET | 28 | 7 | 17 | 158 | 716 | 4.5 | 8 | 24 | 192 | 0 | 8.9 | 150.8 |
| Avg | 15 | 211 | 874 | 4.2 | 8.4 | 33 | 270 | 0.6 | 12.3 | 184.9 |
Two crucial takeaways pop out immediately:
- Remarkable Consistency: Montgomery’s overall fantasy outputs in Chicago and Detroit were shockingly similar. However, his path to get there altered wildly, as he became highly touchdown-reliant as a Lion.
- Comfortable Cushion: Throughout his career, Montgomery has averaged 12.3 fantasy points per game, which is well above the 10.7 RB22 benchmark. In other words, Montgomery's efficiency or volume could drop by 13% this year, and he would still hit our projected RB22 threshold.