After looking at the AFC running back depth charts in part one of this series, the NFC is front and center for this installment.
Arizona Cardinals
This becomes a very interesting situation if Andre Ellington is not the rising high-volume back as some have predicted. However, no talent on the depth chart is all that enticing. Jonathan Dwyer is a decent early-down option, Stepfan Taylor has a little more versatility, but lacks overall athleticism. Zach Bauman has the college production resume, but lacks athleticism or size to project for much as an undrafted prospect. Like Rashard Mendenhall in 2013, there may be dirt-cheap bye week value to be had here with one of the above flyers.
Atlanta Falcons
Devonta Freeman is the new Jacquizz Rodgers and is getting plenty of buzz as the future starter behind an on-his-last-legs Steven Jackson. My bet is that when Steven Jackson is finished, Atlanta will address the position with a higher draft pick and/or legitimate free agent while those banking on Freeman with a top-15 rookie pick ultimately get burned. We will see.
Carolina Panthers
DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are both nearly free and capable of RB2 numbers this year. They are not long-term staples, but potential values for dynasty teams with strong core players at other positions. Tyler Gaffney is worth a stash in leagues with 30+ roster spots in case injuries thin the herd in the short-term.
Chicago Bears
Michael Ford has athletic upside, but a very limited production resume. Ka’Deem Carey is the opposite with questionable drill measurements but one of the strongest age-weighted production profiles in the past decade for running back prospects. With a strong offensive system in place, either are worthy stashes in case Matt Forte misses time.
Dallas Cowboys
DeMarco Murray is underrated compared to the other top producers at the position. With his checkered injury background Murray’s value would take a significant hit with another missed stretch of games, so buyer beware for those investing at dynasty centerpiece prices. Joseph Randle produced more than his physical talent would suggest in college and looked very replaceable in limited time as a rookie. Lance Dunbar has PPR upside, but as a low RB2 if Murray were to miss time. Ryan Williams is the ultimate ‘what if’ talent that is on his last shot in the league after significant injuries derailed his rookie contract in Arizona.
Detroit Lions
Reggie Bush is coming full-circle as a likely satellite player a la his New Orleans days. Joique Bell is a solid short-term play with goal line touches and full starter work if Bush is out. Theo Riddick, despite the positive buzz this offseason, is off of the radar long-term with an anemic athletic and rushing resume from college. Mikel Leshoure has a glimmer of upside remaining in deep dynasty leagues, but likely on another team in 2015 or later if at all.
Green Bay Packers
With the loss of Johnathan Franklin, James Starks is back on the radar. Starks has been functional for most of his career and would be a top-20 weekly play if Eddie Lacy were out. DuJuan Harris is nothing but a flyer at this point for even the strongest of supporters. Michael Hill, Rajion Neal, and LaDarius Perkins scored poorly in the projection model and need help to even become watchlist players.
Minnesota Vikings
Jerick McKinnon comes at a huge value in rookie (third round) and startup drafts (round 11-14) due to landing behind a stud in Adrian Peterson and McKinnon’s off-the-radar college locale. McKinnon is physically gifted and was a surprise day two draft pick. Monitor his progress as a rookie, a few David Wilson-like splash plays could be all a dynasty owner sees of McKinnon in the short-term. Matt Asiata is nothing more than a placeholder in the short-term if McKinnon is not ready for significant work in Peterson’s absence.
New Orleans Saints
Pierre Thomas is a good bet for 70-100 receptions with Darren Sproles out of the picture. Mark Ingram is on the watchlist for 2015 and a likely new team. In the meantime, Ingram is a candidate for double-digit touchdowns – take note in non-PPR leagues. Khiry Robinson needs an injury in front of him to enter the RB20-30 discussion weekly. Travaris Cadet is closer to a Pierre Thomas handcuff than anything of note on his own. Tim Flanders requires 35+ roster spots to hold for any length of time in case lightning strikes.
New York Giants
Rashad Jennings falls into the group of value plays for some short-term production pop. Andre Williams is so limited in the passing game that he needs a Michael Turner-type potion of volume, team offense success, and exclusive goal line work to get into the high RB2 range. David Wilson is a wild card with the largest range of outcomes on the depth chart. Considering his ADP is outside the top-120, Wilson is likely to return a profit, at a minimum, when positive news hits the wire in July or August.
Philadelphia Eagles
Darren Sproles has a short-term window as a PPR flex play in a friendly system. He looked to have lost a step in 2013, so buyer beware on owners expecting much more. Chris Polk is the best option to replace LeSean McCoy between the tackles on the roster, but would be capped by Sproles in the passing game. Polk is an average talent and would be a situationally-valued asset with a larger role.
St.Louis Rams
Tre Mason is being valued accurately as a top-15 or so rookie pick. Benny Cunningham has some stash appeal if Mason struggles to transition to the NFL game. Zac Stacy is a risk-reward play with his background as a high-volume part of the St.Louis offense at times in 2013, but an average-level talent.
San Francisco 49ers
Marcus Lattimore took a big hit this offseason going from future replacement for Frank Gore to flyer-at-best with his slow recovery news and the 49ers drafting Carlos Hyde in the second round. Hyde is in the mold of Eddie Lacy as a grinder with more value from volume than overt athleticism and efficiency. Kendall Hunter falls into the category of ‘monitor where he lands outside of San Francisco’ and LaMichael James is struggling to find a role on the 49ers depth chart. The projection model loves James and he is worth monitoring for a change of scenery and a better fit.
Seattle Seahawks
The Christine Michael fire needs no more stoking of the coals. Robert Turbin, however, does. Turbin is very talented in his own right and unfortunately has two other two talents on the same depth chart. Turbin regularly goes outside the top-200 in startup drafts and makes for an ideal stash as his situation eventually improves.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Charles Sims is a serious threat to Doug Martin’s PPR value, at a minimum, out of the gate. If Sims does one thing in the NFL, it will be in the passing game. Mike James and Bobby Rainey were adequate two-down backs in Martin’s absence in 2013, but unlikely to see unthreatened touches like that again in their respective careers. The drop in weekly production for Doug Martin from his rookie season to 2013 was historic. The play of his replacements in the second half of 2013 and the drafting of Sims are not positive signs for the once bulletproof dynasty asset.
Washington Redskins
Roy Helu has some PPR upside with an offensive scheme change in Washington. Evan Royster is a replacement-level talent that has little reason to be rostered in 99% of dynasty leagues. Lache Seastrunk, once considered a top talent in the 2014 running back class, plummeted to the sixth round after failing to show passing game prowess or test all that well despite the ‘athletic freak’ label. Now, Seastrunk is a nice value in the third round of rookie drafts if he rounds out his game some in the next year or two.