Week 1 of the NFL season always presents an exciting opportunity for daily fantasy (DFS) players to capitalize on offseason insights, breakout candidates, and favorable matchups. Early-season DFS is less of a data-based game than mid or late-season DFS. Instead, we can play our hunches and put our chips on the players we are most excited about. As someone who has drafted 100s of best ball teams and written dozens of redraft articles over the past month, I have no shortage of 2024 player takes. Here are some of the opinions that are most impacting my Week 1 DFS strategy:
The rookie wide receiver class, especially the top few guys, are special talents. Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6,600), Malik Nabers ($6,300), and Rome Odunze ($5,800) are relatively inexpensive. I expect all three to be priced over $7,000 by mid-season and I would not be surprised if one or more of the trio eventually end up priced above $8,000.
The top four wide receivers, Tyreek Hill ($9,600), CeeDee Lamb ($9,300), Justin Jefferson ($9,000), and Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,900), are in a tier of their own. One of these four players is the target if I pay up on this slate. If you want to take a stars and scrubs approach, there is enough value to squeeze two of the four in.
The pool of players at running back feels especially deep. We have a wealth of options at the position at various price points. This is where we can generate uniqueness in our lineup builds while sacrificing little in base projections and upside. It does not feel like there is a “must-play” running back this week. I will gravitate towards running backs who are slightly less popular in Devin Knotts’ DFS Percent Rostered Projections.
There is a good case to get weird at tight end and roll the dice on a player like Taysom Hill ($5,500), who projects for low-single-digit ownership. This is one of those offseason hunches I am excited to see play out in Week 1.
Who knows if Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels will be good? Both showed flashes in the preseason but are entirely unproven. Neither would be a real consideration for me in cash games. In tournaments? Both have the realistic upside we dream about and are worth rolling the dice on in large-field tournaments.
It is hard to project which defenses will be best against which positions early in the season. I am going to lean heavily on the Week 1 Rushing Matchups, Week 1 Passing Matchups, and Receivers with Great and Bad Matchups articles.
Last season, I relied heavily on the results of running my own simulations of the main slate. I will feature those simulations again in 2024, but plan to wait until Week 4 or Week 5. My method relies heavily upon recent usage trends and models of both team-level and player usage variation. In other words, I am reliant on current-season data. More to come on this in future weeks.
Quarterback
Positional Overview
In Week 1, there’s a solid mix of elite quarterbacks with proven upside and affordable dual-threat options. At the top of the slate, Josh Allen offers the highest ceiling and has a favorable matchup against a depleted Arizona secondary. If you’re looking for value, Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams stand out as budget-friendly dual-threat quarterbacks with rushing upside. At the same time, Baker Mayfield could thrive in a favorable matchup against Washington. The Buccaneers-Commanders game has sneaky shootout potential.
Core Plays
Caleb Williams – Chicago Bears ($7,100)
Caleb Williams has been a star in the making since his college days, and his dual-threat capabilities make him an exciting option in Week 1. Facing the Titans, who allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last season, Williams has a juicy matchup. His ability to make plays with both his arm and legs gives him a high ceiling. Williams isn’t just about throwing the ball — he has designed runs built into the game plan, which should boost his fantasy floor. The Bears’ coaching staff has been vocal about giving him opportunities to showcase his rushing skills, and this should be a prime opportunity for Williams to make a splash. I like the rookie-to-rookie stack of Williams and Rome Odunze as an inexpensive duo capable of high point-per-dollar production.
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