Player Spotlight: Ray Rice

Photo: Imagn Images

GUEST CONTRIBUTOR 

This Spotlight was written by guest writer Jason Marcum.  Jason can be found on Twitter @JasonB_Marcum, and is the assistant editor at Cincy Jungle. 

HEY DIDDLE DIDDLE, RAY RICE IS A RIDDLE

"You can see the difference in his face and his body," said Kyle Jakobe, Ray rice's personal trainer, via The Baltimore Sun. "He has cut down his weight and you can see it in how he moves. He's added lean muscle. Outside of the eyeball test, Ray has looked explosive and is cutting on a dime. The Baltimore Ravens are hoping to get a more lean and explosive Ray Rice this year, because lat year's version won't cut it.

The Ravens stumbled to an 8-8 record in 2013, and much of that had to do with an offense that ranked 29th in total yards, 25th in scoring and 30th in rushing yards per game (83.3). A big part of Baltimore's struggles can be attributed to Rice, who's been a focal point of their offense for the past five seasons.

Prior to last season, Rice rushed for over 1,100 yards in each of the previous four seasons while scoring a combined 39 touchdowns. His best season came in 2011, when he totaled 2068 yards from scrimmage to go with 15 scores. His 37 career rushing TDs are the 14th-most by any active player.

His career statistics are provided below.

However, Rice is coming off the worst season of his career. He was plagued with a hip injury suffered in Week 2 to go with weight issues. That led to him rushing for a mere 660 yards and four touchdowns in 15 games.

Rice played last season in the 215-225 lbs. range, but reported to spring workouts at roughly 205 pounds, the normal weight he's had in his NFL career.

"Rice is much lighter on his feet, the result of not carrying as much weight, said ESPN's Jamison Hensley of Rice during OTAs. "There were a couple of times when he showed off elusiveness in between the tackles. It was a rare sight to see Rice fake out tacklers in the open field last year."

Rice’s trainer Kyle Jakobe posted this video to his Instagram that shows Rice making some nice cuts while demonstrating explosiveness and quickness.

Was 2013 just an unfortunate series of events that led to Rice's down year, or has the wear and tear of being a bellcow back finally caught up with him?

The 27-yeard-old is still theoretically young enough that he should have at least one great season left in the tank. But when you realize how many career touches he has, it's easy to be concerned Rice's abilities and body might already be deteriorating.

Over the past five seasons, Rice has carried the ball 1,323 times and caught 336 passes, giving him 1,659 touches over that span, an average of 21 touches per game (16.7 carries and 4.3 catches). He's also missed just one game in that span while arguably being the most durable back in football over that span.

Only Chris Johnson has been more durable, playing in every game since 2009. Frank Gore (7), Adrian Peterson (7), LeSean McCoy (6), Steven Jackson (6), Matt Forte (5) and Marshawn Lynch (4) are the only other backs in that span to play in 70+ games while averaging at least 15 touches per game while missing fewer than 10 games due to injury.

Of all the above players mentioned, Rice is the youngest. All of the aforementioned talking points can be viewed as positives or negatives. Durability would be the obvious positive, but having that much work to this point in his career, combined with the fact that his last season was his worst, could be a sign that Rice is on the downswing of his career.

UNLUCKY 13

Rice's career 1,806 touches are the 9th-most among active players. Here are the top 13 players in terms of career touches.

Gore (56), Rice (59), Jackson (71), Jones-Drew (84), Jackson (95), Williams (107) McGahee (undraftable) and Browns (undraftable) all have an ADP of less than 50 via Footballguys' consensus ADP rankings.

That means nine of the top 13 players in terms of career touches aren't being drafted in the top 50, and five of them aren't even in the top 80. That's not great company for Rice to be lumped in with, but it's reflective of the toll his body has taken.

Another thing to realize is, though Rice was the featured back for Baltimore in 2013, it wasn't as though they had any better options. Bernard Pierce was battling a shoulder injury much of the year that was later revealed to be a torn labrum, which he had surgery performed on this offseason.

Behind those two, Shaun Draughn and Bernard Scott were the only other tailbacks on the roster at any point last year, but they played in a combined five games and only got a combined eight carries.

Now, Baltimore has Justin Forsett, a capable backup, along with Lorenzo Taliaferro, a rookie 4th-round pick out of Coastal Carolina. Forsett is a journeyman, but he did get reps with the first-team offense in OTAs this offseason. In seven NFL seasons, Forsett has rushed 347 times for 1,692 yards (4.9 yards per carry) and eight touchdowns.

He's also caught 115 passes for 850 yards (7.4 yards per catch) and one score. Forsett signed with the Ravens on a one-year deal this offseason to be a capable backup in case rice was ineffective or out due to injury or suspension. Aaron Wilson The Baltimore Sun also believes Forsett could be Baltimore's 3rd-down back, which will take away from Rice's receptions total.

ROLLING THE DICE WITH RICE

Even if Rice is able to get back to his old self this year, we won't see it during the start of the 2014 season. Rice was involved in an incident this offseason that involved Rice allegedly knocking his then-fiancé unconscious at an Atlantic City casino. As a result of this transgression, Rice has been suspended for the first two games of the season (and fined three game checks). Regardless of whether that punishment fits the crime, it’s unquestionably positive for Rice’s fantasy outlook. Many early drafts assumed Rice would miss significantly more than two games.

POSITIVES

• Has been Baltimore's featured RB for 5 straight seasons, averaging 21 touches per game
• Battled a hip injury and played behind a poor offensive line last year, yet managed 214 carries and 58 catches
• Has played in 13+ games every year of his NFL career
• Was leaner and more explosive in offseason workouts

NEGATIVES

• The addition of Justin Forsett and Lorenzo Taliaferro means Baltimore won't be forced to give Rice the majority of touches if he's ineffective
• Rice averaged a career-low 3.1 yards per carry last year
• Also averaged a career-low 5.5 yards per reception
• His 4 scores was the lowest mark since becoming the full-time starter in 2009 
• Wear and tear may finally be catching up to Rice, making him a shell of himself 
• Will be suspended for the first two games of the season

PROJECTIONS

FINAL THOUGHTS

Is Rice still capable of being the Ravens' bellcow back he's been in the past? He's got a lot to overcome to prove that he is. Between the durability concerns with the toll that's been taken on his body to go with the 2-game suspension to start the year, Rice is no longer a fantasy RB1 or even a high end RB2.

THOUGHTS FROM AROUND THE WEB

SI's David Gonos says Rice is overvalued based on his ADP in the sixth round:
The running back will be working behind a revamped offensive line, and after slugglishly going through the motions every Sunday last season, Rice reportedly lost 20 pounds in the offseason.

But is that enough to warrant spending a sixth-round pick on a player that could end up missing six games of the fantasy regular season due to suspension? Even if it’s just a two-game suspension, will he be able to step right in without issue? Probably -- but will he step right in as if 2013 never happened?

By the sixth round, owners will likely already have a pair of running backs, a pair of wide receivers and likely an elite quarterback or tight end on board. A case can be made that risking a sixth-round pick on a player you’d have as a fantasy backup that could have first-round value is a good idea, but it all depends on what running backs are available at this point. Right now, Rice is being taken ahead of Stevan Ridley, Steven Jackson and Pierre Thomas, not to mention wide receivers like Emmanuel Sanders, Mike Wallace, Julian Edelman and teammate Torrey Smith.

In the sixth round, you should have better fantasy options available.

Kyle Wright of Dynasty Football Warehouse believes Rice isn't much more than an RB3:
With Ray Rice’s off the field issues and looming suspension (from what it looks like), he has little more than RB3 value. After showing serious regression in 2013 as a player, Rice is on my “do not draft” list unless he were to fall into later rounds.

Penn Live’s Dustin Hockensmith calls Rice an intriguing FLEX option:
No matter the result of the suspension, Rice has been relegated to a FLEX option in fantasy leagues. There's too much concern about his effectiveness and workload, including 910 carries during his Rutgers career and nearly 1,800 total touches in the NFL, to buy into him as an RB2. But Rice is still an intriguing FLEX option off the mid-round scrap heap.

Ravens QB Joe Flacco likes what he's seen of Rice this offseason:
He’s definitely in good shape. I don’t know if he’s any quicker or anything like that; you’ll have to ask him. I can say he definitely looks good and he’s running the ball well. Our guys are creating some room out there even with no pads on. We’re creating some room out there and some holes, and sometimes that’s tough to do in these kinds of practices. But I think we’ve looked really good and [Rice] has done a great job of pressing, cutting, getting in there and having the explosion afterward. He’s shown a lot.”