Yes, #SFB7 has been dominating your Twitter feed. If you're involved, or merely following the action, you know it's Scott Fish Bowl 7 (SFB7) that we're all discussing. With 13 of us individual Footballguys participating, it was only a matter of time until we started talking SFB7 heavily at the e-watercooler. And the floodgates have opened; Scott Fish's never-boring format has us FBGs joining brains and poring over the wild scoring/lineup requirements, as well as the wonky ADPs that it creates. In the process, we've churned out a lot of interesting overall (non-SFB) discussion, and we wanted to pass as much of it as we can manage along to all of you.
See Part I of our discussions here.
On Mid-Round Wide Receivers, Tight Ends, and Their Tricky Scott Fish Bowl ADPs
Ryan Hester 10:45am
I have this feeling that if I go two WR here, in Round 11, I'm going to be starting a TON of WRs each week in a league where WR scoring isn't a premium. However, taking any of these crap-tastic RBs here probably means the SAME result (only with lesser WR options).
Daniel Simpkins 10:46am
I wouldn't. You have two good ones and you can extract the most value by going elsewhere with this pick. You'll still have a shot at some of those guys later. It's a pretty flat tier.
Ryan, what TEs left?
Ryan Hester 10:47am
I like Hooper, but I don't think he's worth taking over Jackson or Benjamin here. And I can get any of those others later, I think (save for Fiedo and Cook perhaps)
Justin Howe 10:49am
I would probably prioritize Hooper a hair above DJax, honestly, in this format.
Daniel Simpkins 10:50am
I agree with Justin on that.
Ryan Hester 10:51am
Justin Bonnema 2:15pm
Only 19 WRs in seven rounds.
So different than every other league I play in.
Ryan Hester 2:23pm
We had 22 WRs in 7 rounds, Justin - indeed, it is weird
But I like it...as a notorious late-round QB and TE enthusiast, this gives me an opportunity to own different players (i.e. I won't own Kelce anywhere else this year)
Alessandro Miglio 2:40pm
Had I known that WRs would fall so far I would have started differently. That said, owning the two top receivers isn't so bad...
Justin Bonnema 2:41pm
Same here Alessandro, I would have gone QB over Julio
Daniel Simpkins 3:09pm
Getting close to making my next picks. Board is looking pretty flat all over, other than at WR.
Think I need to keep pounding RBs? Tempting to take RB and Marvin Jones Jr.
Justin Bonnema 3:11pm
Thoughts on Tyrell Williams?
Daniel Simpkins 3:13pm
I'm not as high on him as our projectors.
Phil Alexander 3:13pm
I like Tyrell, Enunwa, and Ginn more than Marvin tbh
Justin Bonnema 3:13pm
Same on Tyrell and Enunwa
Daniel Simpkins 3:14pm
Ginn I could see filling the Cooks role and moving the chains, but think he'll be around later due to disgust factor.
Ryan Hester 3:14pm
Ginn over Marvin Jones Jr, Phil? I think we finally have our first disagreement. I like Marvin at his price.
But I do like Tyrell and Enunwa over Jones. I probably like Tyrell the best of the three, and his FFCalculator ADP is lowest.
Justin Bonnema 3:16pm
Jones and Ginn are basically a tie for me
Will take Brees’ offense over Stafford
Phil Alexander 3:18pm
Justin Bonnema 3:19pm
Ginn is legit until Brees' arm falls off
Justin Howe 3:43pm
I'm gonna get bold here: gimme Will Fuller V over Marvin or Ginn
Devin Knotts 3:44pm
Can Watson throw the ball far enough to Fuller?
Justin Howe 3:44pm
Dunno but Fuller gets a lot of short-ball work too. Screens, quick slants
Devin Knotts 3:45pm
I see Braxton Miller taking some of that short-ball work away from Fuller
Phil Alexander 3:53pm
Also, over/under 25% target market share for Enunwa?
Justin Howe 3:57pm
I have 22.5% for Enunwa
Could be low, though, I may have the two rookies projected too high
Justin Bonnema 3:58pm
Justin where do you have ASJ?
Justin Howe 3:58pm
11.0% but trending upward
Justin Bonnema 3:59pm
I’m thinking he could be a great late-round option both in SFB and others. But hasn't done anything to justify it
Justin Howe 3:59pm
Still only comes in 22nd in per-game projection though. 32-445-4 over 14 games and that's gotta be an absolute ceiling, right?
Phil Alexander 4:01pm
Yeah, even if he's seriously recommitted himself, he's still in that offense
I loved him coming out of college FWIW
Justin Howe 4:01pm
Think I prefer Njoku and Higbee from that tier. Vernon Davis too.
Justin Bonnema 4:01pm
ASJ has metrics and nothing else?
Ryan Hester 4:01pm
you know who else was considered a good prospect coming out of college...who played for the Jets (and did so during years where they actually had an offense...? Jace Amaro
(I'll show myself out)
Justin Bonnema 12:12pm
Parker/Benjamin seem smart here?
Justin Howe 12:13pm
I'm not big on Parker.. Benjamin seems definite, but I'd probably pair w/ Tyrell or Enunwa
Or maybe wait 2 rounds and get the same numbers from Rishard!
Phil Alexander 12:14pm
I think I had the same board when I went Benjamin/John Brown
Justin Howe 12:17pm
Justin B, I think I go Benjamin/Tyrell here
Justin Bonnema 12:17pm
That's kind of where my heart is at but Rivers is a spread it around offense. No love for Cobb or Maclin (not pictured)
Justin Howe 12:19pm
Well, he is and he isn't. They were dead last in 3WR sets last year. That'll change some with Allen around but Tyrell should be close to an every-snap guy. Williams won't be ready, Inman is depth, and TBenjamin might be largely out of the picture.
And an injury to Allen just skyrockets Tyrell's value.
Now, Tyrell is going later ADP-wise. So you can probably scoop him, Rishard, or even Cobb next round, and I don't see a ceiling dropoff at all. I might take Benjamin, then use the second pick to fortify something else.
Justin Bonnema 12:25pm
I suppose I could go Witten here and pray
Justin Howe 12:26pm
Think I go Brate
Daniel Simpkins 12:26pm
Shocked Brate is still there. I agree with Justin.
Justin Howe 12:27pm
By ADP he'll likely be gone by your next pick. Hooper is already gone. I'd rather have Rishard/Tyrell + Brate than Parker/Witten.
Justin Bonnema 12:27pm
Brate it is. Took Kelvin Benjamin too
Justin Howe 12:28pm
That's the right call I'd say.
Probably 5-7 very similar WR on your board there
Justin Bonnema 12:28pm
Yeah, I'm fine with waiting rather than reaching for the likes of Ty or Parker.
I'll let Maclin and Cobb fall to me
Brate at least seals up my weakest position a little bit
Justin Howe 12:31pm
I have the same dilemma this round (10). Brate or virtually the same WR group as you. Not on the turn though
Rank this cohort for me: KBenjamin, Tyrell, Pryor, Cobb, Garcon, Maclin
Justin Bonnema 12:33pm
For me: KB, Pryor, Maclin, Ty, Cobb, Garcon
But I'll admit Pryor is a huge unknown, so probably could move him lower. I really like Maclin in Baltimore with no TEs and mediocre backs (Woodhead notwithstanding).
Didn't Flacco lead the league in pass attempts last year?
Justin Howe 12:35pm
I like Maclin more and more every day. Think I go KB, Maclin, Pryor, Tyrell, Cobb, Garcon
Ryan Hester 12:36pm
Hey Justin B, Brees did - by 1. But BAL led the NFL two straight years.
Justin Bonnema 12:36pm
Yet they ran 3WR sets only 56% of the time, according to Sharp football. That probably says something about talent.
Justin Howe 12:41pm
I think Maclin will be every-down and Perriman takes the hit
In fact, I think both Maclin and Wallace make a run at 70 catches.
Justin Bonnema 12:42pm
I'll have a glass of that kool-aid
Justin Howe 12:43pm
We all trash Wallace but 113-141 targets in 5 of the last 6 years
Justin Bonnema 12:43pm
He's so off folk's radars too.
Justin Howe 12:44pm
Yup. He's my WR4 plan. I think I'll get him in 14 or 15 here.
On Bilal Powell
Justin Bonnema 3:34pm
Not to mention Powell, a top-10 guy in PPR leagues ðŸ”¥
Phil Alexander 3:35pm
I think he can get there by the end of the year maybe
Justin Bonnema 3:36pm
Come, Phil, join my cult.
The Kool-Aid is delicious
Phil Alexander 3:42pm
What makes you so sure on Powell? I think it's 50-50 with Forte barring injury
Justin Bonnema 3:46pm
Just looking at the SFB scoring, Powell had the second highest first down rate among RBs and was fifth or sixth in receiving first downs. They're using him to move the chains. Touchdowns are coming
Daniel Simpkins 3:47pm
Justin's love of Powell is proportionate to how much rage I feel about missing out on him by one pick to a team who needed WR and TE much much worse.
Justin Howe 3:48pm
Take heart Daniel. I like his outlook too but he IS still a Jet, and no one should beat themselves up over "losing out" on a 2017 Jet.
Justin Bonnema 3:48pm
5.5 ypc, 6.7 per catch. Meaningless stats when it comes to timeshares but efficiency is on his side.
Justin Bonnema 3:53pm
(continues Powell rant) and considering the likes of D Cook, Henry, Ingram, Peterson, Lacy, Ameer, Coleman and Perkins are going ahead of him, he's the end of the shelf and a better buy than all of those guys
Ari Ingel 4:06pm
Justin B... I'm so not on him this year. That team is going to be horrible, literally horrible and there is zero indication that he is their bell cow over Forte. Powell at age 29 is not the future of this backfield, he is probably gone or their second back next year. Dumspter fire teams will kill you week to week.
Justin Bonnema 4:08pm
Ari he's 28.7
Phil Alexander 4:08pm
Justin Howe 4:09pm
I'm with you Ari except that Forte looks pretty much done to me. Can't move well, can't produce in short yardage to save his life, and now only the second-best receiving back. Guaranteed salary kept him from being cut, but I could see a near-shutdown at worst and a 50/50 split as his ceiling.
And Powell has most of the risk factored into ADP, which has risen but is still low.
Justin Bonnema 4:09pm
Bad offense is bad but not a death knell to a receiving back like Powell. Good price
Ari Ingel 4:10pm
Yeah, I will concede, as your RB3 in PPR leagues, he's a more than fine player. Just as risky as any of the other RB3's.
Justin Bonnema 4:11pm
They were horrible last year too. He finished the season as PPR RB17 (rb21 through 16)
More chances at TDs this year but I have so much bias now I can't see
Ari Ingel 4:11pm
Yeah, he had a good run at the end of the season there. Perhaps I come around to him ... not a great offensive line though either.
Devin Knotts 4:12pm
Josh McCown doesn't throw to running backs and Christian Hackenburg couldn't complete a five yard pass to a running back
Phil Alexander 4:12pm
*Good end of season runs in 2 straight years
Justin Bonnema 4:12pm
(I say more chances at TDs but that's purely speculative and based on the fact that I believe Forte will wear down)
Justin Howe 4:12pm
Phil Alexander 4:13pm
I do wonder if Powell was just a good fit for Gailey's system, but he definitely ran with some juice last year
Justin Howe 4:14pm
Honestly game script his is biggest positive. They'll be trailing every game, all year. They won't be feeding the ghost of Forte in the 3rd/4th Qs of their weekly 27-7 deficits.
Devin Knotts 4:14pm
Hackenberg scares the hell out of me
Justin Bonnema 4:15pm
McCown, in his five games last year, targeted Duke Johnson Jr 27 times
Justin agree on game scripts. part of the upside
Ari Ingel 4:17pm
Gailey's 4 wide sets fit him perfectly. That QB situation is so bad, I just think nothing good comes out of there. And McCown is either going to get hurt or they will shift to Hackenberg or Petty very soon since they need to know what they have and tank for the USC QB . It's really bad.
Ari Ingel 4:18pm
I mean look at this team ... Powell does get a good grade at least
Once again though ... as your 3rd RB, can't argue with it
Justin Bonnema 4:18pm
Drafting him at his floor
Devin Knotts 4:19pm
McCown>>>>>>>Hackenberg. Hackenberg is if Landry Jones had Brett Favre's gunslinging mentality
Justin Bonnema 4:19pm
I mean, CJA or Powell. Who are you taking
Justin Howe 4:19pm
For me, the peripheral stuff + the very real possibility Forte is all but shut down at 31 = a better shot than most of the tier at 200 touches. Guys like Perkins, Woodhead, Riddick, etc have less than 0 chances at 200.
Powell almost every day of the week, Justin
Devin Knotts 4:20pm
Powell for sure
Justin Bonnema 4:20pm
Exactly. And CJA is going at RB24 vs Powell RB32
Powell is the best RB value in July
On Thomas Rawls and Early-Late Handcuff Running Backs – Yes, All of the Williamses
Daniel Simpkins 10:14pm
Thinking I have to take RB/RB here. They are already flying off the board and having not even fostered a second one, I'm in a world of hurt there.
Ryan Hester 10:25pm
Daniel, time to mix floors and ceilings. Floor like James White, ceiling of Rawls. Don't forget Terrance West too. Sometimes, 4 weeks of RB2 is all you get. If they're 1-4 and then you figure things out later, so be it.
Justin Howe 10:37pm
I'm thinking White and Hunt.
Daniel Simpkins 10:38pm
I really believe in Booker if CJA can't stay healthy. Cecil has highlighted how that scheme change is going to help. Think I can get away with letting him go till 13.12?
Devin Knotts 10:45pm
Latavius Murray should be the guy there IMO
Justin Bonnema 10:46pm
Murray gets a slight edge over a prayer in Jamaal Charles
The rest of the list are JAG
Daniel Simpkins 10:47pm
How long do you think he holds off Cook, Devin and Justin? That's what I'm concerned about. Not sure Minnesota would have given that kind of contract to Murray had they known Cook would be available.
Justin Howe 10:48pm
Honestly I could see Murray finishing last in carries.
Devin Knotts 10:48pm
With rookie running backs it's hard to know Daniel. I don't love Cook to be honest this year. I think he will take some time to develop into an NFL guy
Devin Knotts 10:48pm
Florida State running backs have shown a difficult time adapting to the NFL year one
Justin Howe 10:49pm
Latavius is s really just another guy. Inefficient behind an elite line, fewer TD looks now
Devin Knotts 10:49pm
I do like Rob Kelley too, I don't think he loses his spot to Perine as everyone else thinks
sigmund bloom 10:49pm
Agree Devin and more beat writers are echoing that
Justin Howe 10:49pm
Kelley could hold him off but he just redefines JAG
Devin Knotts 10:50pm
but if he gets the carries at that value Justin he's more than JAG
Justin Howe 10:50pm
If he dominates the backfield then sure
Devin Knotts 10:50pm
he has a clearer path to getting carries than the rest of them
Justin Howe 10:51pm
But if he sits around 175 rushes, he's barely a RB3 as he has no pass-game boost whatsoever
Someone has to definitively win that job to have value before the late pickings
Daniel Simpkins 4:46pm
My pick is around. RBs just flying off the board. Maybe take Tyrell Williams and a runner here because of my team construction?
I hope I have a shot at Jamaal Williams next time around. I just have a feeling about that situation.
Justin Bonnema 4:54pm
Daniel sell me on that. Montgomery is getting expensive
Devin Knotts 4:55pm
Love Jamaal Williams
Daniel Simpkins 4:56pm
Yeah, I just feel like Montgomery did well with the position conversion last year, but Williams is already a more natural runner than Montgomery.
Williams went the next pick
Knew I should've doubled up
Justin Howe 5:05pm
Daniel Think you're much better off with Aaron Jones and the discount than Jamaal
Superior prospect in every way, just drafted 2 rounds later by the Pack. Comes cheaper in fantasy too.
Daniel Simpkins 5:10pm
Not sure I agree with the superior prospect part, but I do agree he's much much cheaper.
Justin Howe 5:18pm
FWIW Jones posted the better speed score, far better agility score, much stronger rushing share, and much stronger YPC. Caught more passes too. I honestly had Williams as an undrafted prospect and Jones in the 4th or so.
Ari Ingel 5:44pm
Someone just took Rawls in the 9th in my league ... this thing is crazy
Daniel Simpkins 5:59pm
Justin, Williams plays much faster on tape than he tests. Love the footwork in particular. I think he's also a better blocker than Jones which will get him on the field quicker. Packers told you who they thought was superior by taking him ahead of Jones.
Ari Ingel 6:17pm
Phil Alexander 6:18pm
That's tough. All have their merits. Between Hunt and Williams for me
Ari Ingel 6:19pm
Phil Alexander 6:19pm
Ari Ingel 6:19pm
They really like Joe ... Jonathan more of a league winner if Shady goes down.
Phil Alexander 6:20pm
This is your RB3?
Ari Ingel 6:20pm
Phil Alexander 6:22pm
I've been starting to buy Hyde more as his stock has been falling. Probably why I'm not into Williams much
Ari Ingel 6:23pm
Hyde is too good to go away unless they trade him. I agree, I am not buying he's being replaced.
Phil Alexander 6:24pm
I see something close to an even split there. Maybe 55-45 Ware if both are healthy
Devin Knotts 6:37pm
Not a fan of Joe Williams. I like Jamaal who we referenced earlier