With a lone preseason game remaining, player values begin to shift for the 2016 season. While focusing mainly on young and upside dynasty assets, here is a breakdown of movement:
Quarterback
Robert Griffin III III has shown flashes of his early Washington time. The weapons are much improved and Griffin still has top-5 rushing potential among quarterbacks. Griffin is an upside QB2 and do not be surprised if half his weeks are QB1 numbers while healthy.
Dak Prescott has zoomed up in value where owners are giving 20% or more of their start-1QB format waiver budgets for the rookie and some are drafting him over Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, and Paxton Lynch in quarterback-premium rookie drafts in late August. I recommend selling (at two rookie 1sts value) over rolling into the season with Prescott in those premium leagues. Romo may not play again and, as we saw in the preseason, is one awkward tackle away from another question mark timetable to return.
Trevor Siemian is the Week 1 starter for Denver, but Paxton Lynch is looming to start. The savvy play is to flip Sieman in premium formats and explore a discount on Lynch, who has flashed in the preseason through the expected inconsistency out of the gate.
Christian Hackenberg was one of my closest 'watches' of Week 3. I liked what I saw and remember Round 2 quarterbacks are nearly 100% bets to be their team's starter as some point in their career. Hackenberg showed well with smooth footwork and a strong arm on intermediate throws, even to the far side of the field. Hackenberg had a perfect corner route drop in the bucket to Robbie Anderson for a touchdown, plus added power throws on deep in-cuts and out routes. His lone blemish was not recognizing a dropping defensive lineman into coverage, turning into a tipped interception.
Running Back
Kenneth Dixon is a stock up player. The buy window is open with a torn MCL and being on the shelf for around a month, but the preseason tape from Dixon was outstanding. He flashed every game with more lateral explosion and vision than any other Baltimore back. I am more confident than ever Dixon will be a 50/50 or better option within the Ravens depth chart at some point this season.
Jonathan Williams looked the part of a three-down NFL back. With Karlos Williams out of Buffalo and Mike Gillislee 'just a guy' in terms of NFL talent, Williams is positioned nicely behind LeSean McCoy (and an over-the-hill Reggie Bush) to see starts down the line.
I buried Cameron Artis-Payne after being a no-show as a rookie and looking like a fringe NFL back at best. In Week 3 of the preseason Artis-Payne had his best tape I have seen even dating back to college. While still being skeptical of Artis-Payne being the Jonathan Stewart handcuff or any Carolina back having more than 10-12 PPG upside, Artis-Payne is worthy of a roster spot in medium-depth dynasty leagues...for now.
All the non-Frank Gore running backs in Indianapolis have been massive disappointments in my game notes this preseason. Jordan Todman has been consistently the No.4 back into games. Robert Turbin is the de facto No.2 despite looking physically 'done'. Josh Ferguson has lacked all dynamic qualities from college and failed mightily on interior touches. Stevan Ridley's signing is a new hope for a Colts upside shot as he looked pretty good in a crowded Detroit backfield before his release.
Jerick McKinnon has looked like a monster this preseason and primed for a substantial role if Adrian Peterson were to miss time or not be in Minnesota's long-term plans. McKinnon looks stronger and more dynamic than ever and one of the few must-holds among NFL backup running backs with a later Round 1 rookie pick equivalent valuation.
Tyler Gaffney looks like a solid bet to make the 53-man roster for the Patriots. It is nice to see him sustain some health for the first time in his NFL career and get a shot with his original team. Gaffney has enough juice to challenge LeGarrette Blount as the power option of the backfield rotation. Outside of the most shallow dynasty leagues, Gaffney is a must-own or hold asset.
Paul Perkins, like Keith Marshall in Washington, has had a rough preseason. Perkins looks so pedestrian as a physical talent and the Giants depth chart is more crowded than previously thought with Andre Williams resurfacing. In leagues of less than 25 roster spots, I can see cutting Perkins for a better short-term upside play. At a minimum shop him to the Rashad Jennings or Shane Vereen owner before shedding Perkins though.
Christine Michael has been a huge uptick player this preseason. More than the jaw-dropping combination of size, power, and lateral cuts which have always been present, Michael has been used regularly in the passing game, blocking well, and receiving consistent praise from the Seattle coaching staff. Who knows how the 2016 story ends for Michael, but he is one of the more talented backs as a pure runner in the NFL and his previous roadblocks look to be erased or significantly diminished.
Peyton Barber has looked the part of an above-average interior NFL back. I see a committee role for Barber if Doug Martin were to miss time as the power option, while Charles Sims would see a rushing uptick and maintain the receiving role in Tampa Bay.
Derrick Henry is a prospect I was lower than consensus during the draft process. While I am still below the rising tide consensus on Henry, I have warmed to his tape of the preseason and long-range outlook. With high expectations and DeMarco Murray to begin the year as the starter, there still may be a reasonable buy window for Henry in the coming 4-6 weeks.
Wide Receiver
Devin Funchess has shown quality progression from his inconsistent flashes as a rookie. I liked Funchess more than Kelvin Benjamin as a prospect entering the NFL and there is a decent chance Funchess, not Benjamin, is the go-to Carolina receiver within the next 12-18 months.
Brice Butler was a solid performer in the preseason and, in my view, is a better talent than incumbent starter in Dallas, Terrance Williams. Temper expectations for the Cowboys passing game overall with Dak Prescott under center, but Butler is a talent stash one injury away from a significant playing time uptick.
Will Fuller had his coming out party in Week 3, beating defensive backs regularly down the field. Fuller is a smooth accelerator and separates late in routes. Some dynasty owners were getting Fuller in the second round of recent rookie drafts while I firmly had Fuller in the top-5 since post-NFL Draft. Fuller is an ideal WR4/5 for strong teams this season with 20-point upside any given week to win matchups.
Tyreek Hill is a monitor player. He has elite athletic traits, but I question his ultimate usage ceiling and Kansas City is a limited passing game overall. Hill has flashed enough to put on the dynasty watch list this preseason.
While the initial role is ambiguous, Chris Hogan has impressed with perimeter and slot work for the Patriots in the preseason. Tom Brady hit Hogan in Week 3 with a gorgeous slot touchdown after an outside release. Other than potentially Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan should earn a heavy snap count among New England wide receivers this season.
Nelson Agholor's stock continues to drop. In Week 3, Agholor did not track the ball, leading to an opening drive interception. With Dorial Green-Beckham and Jordan Matthews easily better talents, Agholor has an uphill climb to relevance.
Mike Thomas (Rams) was a hot NFL Draft name early in the process and some projected him as a Round 1 rookie draft pick. Since his NFL Combine snub, it has been downhill for Thomas' value. The preseason has been disappointing for Thomas as well, logging an ugly drop in Week 3 among his errors.
Tight End
Ben Watson was a one of my strong calls at tight end with TE1 upside for 2016. With Crockett Gillmore returning well from injury and Watson tearing his achilles, feel free to drop the mid-30s tight end.
C.J. Uzomah is the last man standing in the Cincinnati tight end corps. He could see significant snaps for the opening month of the season. While there are plenty of near free tight end stopgaps to start the season (Jacob Tamme, Lance Kendricks, etc), Uzomah is another name to know.
Virgil Green is a tight end I have watched closely this preseason and he has passed the eye test with flying colors. After getting a second contract with Denver, he has shut the door on Jeff Heuerman's chances at the starting job. Green is yet another inexpensive tight end with TE1 upside.
Do not forget about Larry Donnell. Will Tye was buried in the second half while Donnell saw first-team work in the Giants preseason tune-up in Week 3. Donnell is the favorite to begin the season as the starter and, like a few other Week 1 starters at tight end, is essentially free to acquire.
